https://theathletic.com/2813702/2021/09/08/group-of-5-week-2-best-bets-picking-road-covers-including-uab-at-georgia-and-buffalo-at-nebraska/

Quarterbacks

Brett Gabbert, Miami OH ($7,700) v. Buffalo: Fresh off a 500 yard performance against Ohio, Gabbert’s price hasn’t really bumped. However, he is the most expensive QB on the slate. Buffalo’s defense is giving up the most yards per pass attempt on the slate at 9.4 yards, so Gabbert is an objectively good play. I found it hard to fit him in because I want to pay up at other positions and think Gabbert’s production can be matched by some other QBs. I dont think MiaOH will open up the playbook like they did in a score chasing effort last week.

Kaleb Eleby, WMU ($7,500) vs. Akron: Anyone facing Akron is liable to have their season best performance. Eleby is no different, but while efficient he has not blown the doors off the box scores this year. He only has two 300 yard games and WMU loves to feed their three headed backfield. I am a big fan of Eleby but like Gabbert I just think the upside is similar with cheaper salaries tonight.

Ben Bryant, EMU ($6,800) vs Ohio: Bryant is $700 less than Eleby despite eclipsing 300 yards passing in 3 of his last 5 games. EMU funnels things through the passing game, accounting for a slate-high 73% of their offensive production. I can’t believe we get a high volume QB against the slate’s 2nd worst pass D (who, by the way, just gave up 500 to Gabbert last week). This will be chalky but I think you have to do it.

Kurtis Rourke, Ohio ($6,200) vs. EMU: Rourke led Ohio to a big win over MiaOH last week, and has now put together solid back to back outings. He has scored just under 60 Draft Kings points in the last 2 weeks combined. The price isn’t bad for Rourke because while Ohio wants to run, he contributes in that phase as well. I still can’t get too excited for here because Ohio still earns over 50% of their production on the ground. That’s not a recipe for QB success on this slate.

Kyle Vantrease, BUffalo ($6,000) @ MiaOH: I have no interest in the QB for a team that wants to run the ball 30+ times a game. Even when pressed to throw, Buffalo can’t. Vantrease attempted 50 passes against Nebraska and still only totaled 224 yards. Pass (or, in Buffalo’s case…don’t).

Zach Gibson, Akron ($5,000) @ WMU: Last week I was in on DJ Irons who I thought was going to be Akron’s starter. Narrator: He was not. I don’t think there is any question heading into tonight who the face of this offense is, one reshirt sophomore Zach Gibson. Akron may have really found something in Gibson who has completed over 70% of his passes and elevated the offense to producing over 100 more passing yards than their baseline in his starts. In games he has started, Akron looks competitive and has covered the spread in 3 straight when he attempts at least 15 passes. He’s averaging over 300 yards in 2 starts and a 5K pricepoint is just silly against a WMU pass defense that allows over 8.8 yards per attempt.

Running Backs

De’Montre Tuggle, Ohio ($7,000) @ EMU: This one is simple: EMU’s weakest unit is their run defense. Ohio wants to run the ball and Tuggle is their primary option. It’s not a crazy idea to fade him, but know you’re taking a risk as he had 3 touchdowns last week including a receiving score. The QB Rourke is a threat to vulture from Tuggle, but volume will be plentiful tonight and that’s the best thing to bet on.

Dylan McDuffie, Bufflao ($6,900) @ MiaOH: As stated above, volume is king and without Kevin Marks Jr, McDuffie is a good bet to lead the slate in touches. He’s seen 82 touches over the last 3 games and scored 5 touchdowns. I don’t see how Draft Kings is discounting him at all but I’ll take it. He’ll be very popular but it’s difficult to fade McDuffie. Get different elsewhere.

Sean Tyler, WMU ($6,300) and La’Darius Jefferson ($5,200) vs. Akron: I have shied away from WMU backfield as they split time quite a bit. Tonight is no different, if I’m rostering a Bronco it’ll be the cheaper options. Jefferson is probably a good bet to land in the endzone but unlikely to give a high-volume stat line.

Keyon Mozee, Mia OH ($4,800) @ Ohio: Mozee only saw 3 carries last week but MiaOH found themselves in a 28-0 hole and had to unleash Brett Gabbert. This backfield is still a split and Mozee is unlikely to see 15 carries and doesn’t catch passes. Despite a favorable price tag against a bad run D I think this is a fade.

O’Shaan Allison, Ohio ($3,900) @ EMU: Trust the process! I will ply Allison again! He disappointed last week as Tuggle got 3 scores, but Allison still caught 5 passes. That makes 12 catches in his last 2 games. I think he’s a value once again and should he cross the stripe could be a tournament winner.

Receivers:

Jack Sorenson, Mia OH ($9,000) vs Buffalo: Sorenson is the most expensive player on the slate after torching Ohio for an insane 14-283-2 line last week. The game script was ideal and I dont want to pay up again for what is likely his career game.

Skyy Moore, WMU ($83100) vs. Akron: Moore is the alpha on a team facing Akron. Don’t make this difficult.

Hassan Beydoun, EMU ($7,400) @ Toledo: After scoring only twice in his first 23 career games, Beydoun exploded last week for 2 in a single game. He catches a ton of passes in an air-it-out offense but I think this price is steep off his career game. Last week I said he’s a discount Sorenson, and technically he still is but not the same level of discount. I want others in this passing attack tonight.

Konata Mumpfield ($5,900) and Michael Mathison, Akron ($5,600) @ WMU: I love either of these guys tonight. Mathison is still a value, but Mumpfield is now $1,200 less than last week in a better matchup. Buy the dip! See Gibson’s blurb as to why both these guys are in play, heck I may stack both with Gibson.

Jaylen Hall ($5,100) or Corey Crooms, ($4,700) WMU vs. Akron: It’s difficult to predict which of these secondary options will pop any given week. If you want access to a passing game against Akron at a discount choose one of these two. Both have had their shining moments with Crooms getting the top billing last week.

Mac Hippenhammer, Mia OH ($4,900) @ Ohio: Miami’s second target had a great game last week as the Red Hawks played catch up most of the evening. I don’t mind him tonight either, as his salary didn’t get a bump. MiaOH should continue to thrive with Gabbert under center.

Tanner Knue, EMU ($4,800) vs. Ohio: Seeing his first action in 2021 last week, Knue finished with a 6-55-1 line and second on the team in receptions. In 2020 he led EMU in touchdowns so he is no stranger to this offense. I love the discount here at $4,800 and will have high exposure to Knue this week.

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