Week 1 College Football Takeaways

Week 1 is finally in the books, so we finally have some new info to argue about! Although the first week of college football can be difficult to evaluate, my job each week is to comb through the information and pull out the info that will help you win your leagues. You’ll see some categories pop up each week (target leaders, freshman snaps) and some that will be more pertinent to that specific week of action. Without further ado…

1. Week 1 Target Leaders

This was a high-scoring week across college football, with some surprising beneficiaries in the receiving game.

NAME	SCHOOL	TARGETS	Total Team Att	TGT %
Pofele Ashlock	Hawaii	19	42	45.24%
Nick Nash	San Jose State	17	35	48.57%
Savion Williams	TCU	15	42	35.71%
Tetairoa McMillan	Arizona	15	31	48.39%
Damon Ward	North Texas	15	41	36.59%
Kevin Concepcion	NC State	14	40	35.00%
Jamaal Pritchett	South Alabama	14	49	28.57%
Isiah Paige	Old Dominion	14	39	35.90%
Coleman Owen	Ohio	14	29	48.28%
Devin McCuin	UTSA	14	39	35.89%
Tez Johnson	Oregon	13	50	26.00%
Corey Rucker	Arkansas State	13	47	27.66%
Josh Kelly	Texas Tech	13	42	30.95%
Elic Ayomanor	Stanford	12	36	33.33%
Jordan Moore	Duke	12	40	30.00%

Three names on this week’s leaderboard are must-adds if they are hanging around on waivers, regardless of waiver structure. First up is TCU’s Savion Williams, who had 15 targets in their game against Stanford on Friday night. Williams turned that volume into 11 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. It seems like TCU wants to use Williams as a YAC guy only in their offense, as his ADOT was 4.7 on the night, and none of his targets went beyond 15 yards (and only two went beyond 10). While this type of role might limit his true fantasy ceiling, it should provide an insane floor, especially in 0.5 and full PPR formats. TCU won’t stop slinging it around, so it feels like a weekly floor in the double digits is a safe assumption (generally speaking).

San Jose State’s Nick Nash had almost 50% of the targets in their matchup on Friday night and turned that volume into a 10/170/2 stat line. Nash lined up in the slot 90% of the time but still had an ADOT of almost 14. Although it’s a stretch to expect 17 targets weekly from anyone, Nash is clearly the best receiver in this offense and should continue to get fed. Nash is in play for WR1 in college fantasy this year.

Most expected North Texas to have a big year offensively, especially once they added Chandler Morris from the transfer portal. But 52 points and over 400 total passing yards exceeded even my lofty expectations for the group. The main beneficiary appears to be Damon Ward, a player who was dirt cheap in most supplemental drafts this offseason. Ward overwhelmingly lines up on the boundary and has traditionally been a player who excels further downfield. That was consistent with his deployment on Saturday, where he played outside 91% of snaps and had an ADOT over 13. This passing offense should continue to put up numbers and Ward should have a relatively safe floor each week with a huge ceiling.

It’s probably too early to comment much on either Isiah Page or Coleman Owen, but I will be watching both intently over the next few weeks to determine if their targets remain sticky. Firm watchlist players unless you play in a league with unlimited waivers. 

2. Freshman Snap Counts

NAME	SCHOOL	SNAPS	TOTAL TEAM	SNAP %
Danny O’Neil	San Diego State	72	79	91%
Reece Vander Zee	Iowa	64	75	85%
Mario Craver	Mississippi State	43	59	73%
Dylan Raiola	Nebraska	63	90	70%
Jeremiah Smith	Ohio State	43	66	65%
Micah Ford	Stanford	45	75	60%
Isaac Wilson	Utah	33	68	49%
Caleb Odom	Alabama	29	67	43%
Mazeo Bennett	South Carolina	33	80	41%
Nate Frazier	Georgia	25	62	40%
Sire Gaines	Boise State	26	70	37%
Cam Coleman	Auburn	16	46	37%

Week 1 snap counts often require context because many games turn into blowouts quickly. That was true for Wilson, Odom, and Gaines, who likely see significantly less action in a typical week. Gaines was also likely boosted by a minor injury to lead back Ashton Jeanty, although it sounds like he may have continued if the contest was still in the balance. Nate Frazier also benefitted from a suspension to starter Trevor Etienne, so don’t panic if his snaps scale back next week. However, it is interesting that those backs are positioned for significant work if something happens to the starter.

Two names stand out to me at first glance: Mississippi State’s Mario Craver and South Carolina’s Mazeo Bennett. South Carolina’s game was close the entire time, and Bennett still played over 40% of the offensive snaps on the day, which is encouraging. In this one, the passing game looked rough at times, but if it can level out a bit, Bennett could put together a tidy freshman season. Twenty to thirty catches, a couple hundred yards, and a few touchdowns are well within the range of outcomes. Mississippi State blew out their opponent, but 73% of snaps indicate that Craver is a serious part of the game plan. As of today, I expect both receivers to break Year 1 Zero thresholds.

The only other surprise here is Stanford’s Micah Ford, although there had been some camp buzz on him. Stanford’s offensive line was so poor in this game that I’m not interested in adding him, but I’ll be paying attention to that backfield split over the next handful of games.

The Auburn receivers got some run in their game this weekend and all three were productive. Cam Coleman shows up on the list, but Perry Thompson (8/46) and Malcolm Simmons (35%) also got some run. Both also registered respectable stat lines. Many worried that Thompson could be a Year 1 Zero, but I feel confident he will hit at least 100 yards or ten catches this season after Week 1. Can you imagine if this group had added Ryan Williams as well? 

Iowa freshman Reece Vander Zee was not on my radar at all coming into this weekend. Vander Zee was the 131st-ranked WR in the 247Sports Composite, and his only P5 offers were from in-state schools Iowa and Iowa State, and Nebraska. He’s a bigger-bodied kid who played multiple sports in high school and has an 84th percentile Star Index score in our database. His athletic comps include Jurrion Dickey, Tamorrion Terry, and Herman Moore. This player should probably be watch-listed at this juncture, although I wouldn’t blame anyone for scooping him up, especially in deeper leagues.

3. Volume Is King

We care a lot about volume for every type of fantasy football because more opportunity generally means more points. It’s as simple as that.

So, which teams ran the most plays this weekend? Beware that some of these can be deceiving with weaker opponents in Week 1, but it should give us an idea of how some teams want to play.

SCHOOL	SNAPS	RUSHING	PASSING
Georgia Southern	91	30	61
Arkansas State	91	38	53
Oregon	89	33	56
South Alabama	89	30	59
UAB	88	48	40
Wisconsin	84	43	41
New Mexico	84	28	56
Texas State	84	38	46
Pittsburgh	81	25	56
South Carolina	80	49	31

We had two teams run over 90 plays this week, which is quite the rarity. I don’t know that it happened twice in the same week in 2023. There are only a few mild surprises in this week’s top ten, but the biggest one has to be Pitt, who ran 81 plays. A quick two-minute search tells me that’s more than they ran in any game last year, and I’d assume it’s more than any game in 2022, too. 

Other notable teams and splits:

• North Texas: 78 total plays. 32 rush, 46 pass
• TCU: 77 total plays. 30 rush, 47 pass
• UTSA: 76 total plays.26 rush, 46 pass
• Stanford: 75 total plays. 28 rush, 47 pass

4. Must Have Waiver Adds

I would be remiss if I did not lead this section with the fine work of my colleagues, who have already written and published waiver wire articles specifically for CFF and C2C leagues. Although I share many of their sentiments, I like to put my own spin on things when I write this article. As always, this is not an exhaustive list, and managers should examine all available players to ensure they don’t miss anyone. Our Roster Management Tool should be helpful for that.

As I mentioned in an earlier section, I consider three receivers must-adds after Week 1. Savion Williams, Nick Nash, and Damon Ward. All three should see consistent volume and be on offenses that will run a ton of plays and likely score a lot of points. I’d add Harrison Wallace to this list as well. Health has long been a concern for Wallace, but you cannot deny that he’s dangerous when he’s on the field. He only had eight targets but seemed to be the first read on most of the explosive passes that Penn State was able to generate. I’m willing to spend anywhere from 20% to 50% of my FAAB this week on these guys, depending on league economy and if I’m allowed to make zero bids later.

If Sire Gaines is available in your league, he shouldn’t be for long. His usage this weekend signaled that Boise State intends to roll with him as the next guy up, and teammate Ashton Jeanty won’t be around after this year. This offense is going to produce a 1,000-yard rusher, no matter what. I’d be happy to spend up to 30% FAAB if I don’t have needs elsewhere. 

If you are looking for more immediate production at running back, NC State’s Jordan Waters, Ohio’s Anthony Tyus, and San Jose State’s Floyd Chalk should all be targeted. This trio received bellcow workloads attached to offenses that I expect to be above average this year. Most of the time, that’s all you need for a successful fantasy running back. I’d spend up to 25% on each of these guys.

I honestly have no idea what to do with TCU’s Jack Bech. If he has TE eligibility in your leagues, he’s probably worth the add, as his nine targets don’t feel fluky. If he does not have TE eligibility, it’s a bit murkier, as the threshold for starting is much higher as a receiver or flex option. I’m spending up to 20% FAAB in leagues with a TE premium, assuming he has the designation.

Equally as important as making smart adds early in the season is avoiding the busts in the group. I’m watch-listing the following players, but they shouldn’t be added in anything but the deepest leagues. 

Eli Holstein/Desmond Reid/Kenny Johnson – They won’t play Kent State every week, but it looks like Head Coach Pat Narduzzi has finally realized that you need a dynamic offense in 2024. All three of these guys should be major contributors this year; I want to see Pitt do it again before committing serious resources. If your league has unlimited waivers and you have some bench space to play with, you could do worse than this trio. I’d advocate for Holstein first, then Johnson, and finally Reid. 

Payton Thorne – Thorne had a big day in a soft matchup. The weapons are better this year, and it’s his second year in the offense, so some growth can be expected, but I wouldn’t burn a waiver on him until he does it a few more times.

Ethan Hampton, QB – Northern Illinois: Hampton racked up 328 passing yards and five touchdowns on only 20 attempts against Western Illinois. However, with Notre Dame/Bye/Buffalo/NC State in the next four weeks, he probably doesn’t need to be rostered in anything other than the deepest leagues.

Kirk Francis, QB – Tulsa: Francis passed for 299 yards and four touchdowns against Northwestern State, but he doesn’t rush much, so I want to see him do it again before adding a pass-only QB.

5. Injuries to Monitor

This week was one of the best I can remember regarding injuries to key players. I’m sure we will have more news pop up over the next few days, but here are the only four situations we have to monitor this week.

TAHJ BROOKS

Brooks left Texas Tech’s game with an arm injury and has been officially listed as questionable for week two. We have no information beyond that, so managers shouldn’t panic yet.

ASHTON JEANTY

Jeanty picked up a slight injury in their game this weekend against Georgia Southern but did return briefly before finally exiting. No news has emerged yet, but this seems like an instance where the score and situation dictated that he could rest. Full steam ahead.

KYRON DRONES

Drones left Virginia Tech’s loss to Vanderbilt with a lower-body injury. Head Coach Brent Pry was asked following the game and said that Drones wanted to return, but there was too much of a limp to allow him to do that. Managers should monitor this all week, and because much of his fantasy upside comes from his rushing upside, they should have a replacement in mind.

GRAHAM MERTZ

Mertz left Florida’s game against Miami with a concussion and did not return. True freshman DJ Lagway took his spot with mixed results. A timetable for his return has not been established publicly, so Eugene Wilson and Elijah Badger owners should take note.

OTHER

We still do not have any news on Minnesota RB Darius Taylor or Mississippi State WR Kelly Akharaiyi.

6. First Start Jitters or First Start Glitters?

We’ve known for months, but Dylan Raiola was announced as the starter at Nebraska a few weeks ago and delivered a strong opening performance against UTEP. He looked the part of the top quarterback recruit in his class, playing with the confidence of a multi-year veteran. Raiola will face slightly stiffer competition against Colorado this week, but I expect him to play well again.

Danny O’Neil started slowly, but his confidence grew as he settled into this game. O’Neil has the benefit of playing for an offensive mastermind who will make his life easier, plus the Mountain West schedule features plenty of soft matchups. Stock up on O’Neil.

Aidan Chiles was a bit rough in this one, consistently missing receivers and looking out of sync in his first start for Michigan State. The receivers didn’t help, either. PFF credited the group with one drop, but there were certainly more on the day. This offense will be a mess this year, so Chiles likely won’t be startable for fantasy purposes. That does not mean his long-term value has been extinguished, but you may explore selling now if the risk makes you uncomfortable.

Likewise, LaNorris Sellers struggled in his debut. He completed fewer than 40% of his passes, and his Gamecocks barely defeated Old Dominion. Sellers’ decision-making was questionable at times, and he often missed open receivers. That’s not what we saw out of him last year, but there should be concerns about his ability to play consistently as a passer.

I’ll discuss the LSU/USC game more later, but I thought both quarterbacks acquitted themselves in this one. Although it was not technically their first start, both teams should feel pretty good about their offenses moving forward. 

7. Early Trade Targets

It’s never too early to trade, especially if you think a roster should be a competitor. 

• Quali Conley, RB – Arizona: Conley was extremely efficient as the starter in this offense. If the targets continue, there’s a legit fantasy starter here.
• Marquez Cooper, RB – San Diego State: Cooper was reunited with Sean Lewis and made the most of it in the opener, rushing for over 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
• Kalel Mullings, RB – Michigan: Mullings can seize the role that Blake Corum held the past few years.
• Jamaal Pritchett, WR – South Alabama: Pritchett or Voisin? Round 1 goes to Pritchett, who had 14 targets to Voisin’s 8.
• North Texas offense: Self-explanatory. They should run a ton of plays and have plenty of explosives each week, especially in the passing game.
• Kyle Williams, WR – Washington State: John Mateer was better than expected, and his main target was Williams. Expect more volume as the offense continues to grow together.
• Jordan Moore, WR – Duke: Moore was clearly Maalik Murphy’s main target and should see over 100 targets this year.
• Josh Kelly, WR – Texas Tech: Behren Morton appears healthy, at least for now. If that continues, Kelly could be a huge bargain, and he’s fairly cheap.
• Louisville offense – The RB room is still murky, but Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks are underpriced right now.

8. I May Be Too Low On…

Offseason rankings are such a difficult exercise because there are so many things that we can’t know until the games kick off. We can speculate and read camp news all we want, but beat reporters often don’t (or can’t) give us the entire story. Coaches seek to gain a 2% edge by lying, and with a quarter or more of each roster turning over each year, there’s a ton to figure out. I don’t want to overreact to the opening weekend, especially with all of the blowouts, but here are some players I think I was too low on.

I’ve already mentioned some of the waiver wire guys, all of whom I was too low on, so I’ll spend this section touching on some names I haven’t mentioned yet. 

Expensive Options

• Isaiah Bond (moved from WR12 to WR9). Bond looks much more refined and should be used in a more versatile role this year.
• Kevin Concepcion (moved from WR19 to WR16). I thought the plethora of options signed this offseason would eat into his workload. Instead, KC had 14 targets and was the focal point of the offense.

Mid-Priced Options

• Devin McCuin (moved from WR75 to WR66). I may still be too low on McCuin, who saw 14 targets on the day. He’s clearly UTSA’s best offensive player at this point and should continue to see consistent volume.
• Devon Dampier (moved from QB68 to QB50). With the benefit of two games, it is easy to see that Dampier should be rostered in all leagues. He’s completing over 60% of his passes on decent volume and has added 164 yards on the ground.
• Ja’Corey Brooks (moved from WR141 to WR78). I wasn’t sold that Brooks would be the top target in this offense, but it appeared that way on Saturday. Brooks saw eight targets, twice what anyone else on the team had.

Bargain Bin Options

• Blake Shapen (moved from QB82 to QB72). The opposition was not the stiffest, but Mississippi State played with tempo and was efficient overall. The sheer volume should make Shapen relevant in the bottom half of their schedule.
• Justin Marshall (moved from RB92 to RB70). Colorado State played the toughest team on their schedule and still rushed for over 100 yards. Marshall’s weekly floor should be considerable, and with his background as a receiver, he should also be a factor in it.

9. Don’t Panic Yet

With the nature of short college seasons, managers must react quickly and decisively when presented with information that runs counter to their prior assumptions. But it’s also important not to OVERREACT, especially after one game. Here are a few players that I’m not panicking on yet, but I’m definitely worried about.

We talked a bit about Ricky White and the UNLV passing offense on The Tailgate this week, our weekly Saturday morning kickoff show (if you aren’t tuning in, I highly recommend it). Some of us voiced concern over the passing ability of new UNLV starter Matt Sluka, who transferred up from the FCS this offseason. Those concerns reared their ugly head against Houston. UNLV attempted only 16 total passes, and White had two catches. He did have six total targets, which is good, but if he doesn’t see much volume, he’s a risky start each week.

Texas got off to a slow start this weekend but was able to run the score up against Colorado State. Running back Jaydon Blue had a light day with only 11 rush attempts and three receptions. That’s still more than the rush attempts of either of the key backups Jerrick Gibson or Tre Wisner had. My guess? Texas took their foot off the pedal quickly and weren’t trying to show anything unnecessary before their game against Michigan next weekend.

Western Kentucky struggled against Alabama, but that was to be expected. If you were drafting Hilltopper assets, you weren’t expecting them to be viable last week. Quarterback TJ Finley did get benched, although their backup, Caden Veltkamp, did not play any better. No rusher stood out, and opportunities for the receivers were limited. WKU gets Eastern Kentucky in week two, so we should get a better picture of what this offense will look like then.

Honorable mention was given to some highly-ranked freshmen receivers who didn’t get on the field this weekend. It isn’t quite time to panic, but if you roster one of these guys, I’d suggest keeping a close eye on their situations: Mike Matthews (Tennessee), Mylan Graham (Ohio State), JoJo Trader (Miami (FL)).

10. Game of the Week

USC vs. LSU was hyped as the game of the week, and it delivered on that promise. Both teams answered questions that we had entering the season, and the close game gave us information on the depth chart/deployment.

Miller Moss and Garrett Nussmeier both played well in a competitive environment. Moss specifically faced questions about his backup all offseason, but I doubt we’ll see Jayden Maiava unless an injury occurs. Moss and Nussmeier should get decent passing volume each week, but neither are rushers, which caps their upside. Both can be considered legitimate devy options for now.

The USC backfield split was a lot more concentrated than I expected. Only Woody Marks (the artist formerly known as Jo’quavious) and Quinten Joyner got any carries, and Marks was the leader with 16. He’s also an excellent receiving back. A top-24 seasonal finish is very possible for him. If you’re looking for the handcuff, Joyner seems the easy choice for now. Both should be rostered in all formats, as it is Marks’s final year of eligibility.

The target numbers were relatively evenly distributed. Kyron Hudson got seven, Zachariah Branch and Lake McRee got five, and Ja’Kobi Lane, Woody Marks, and Kyle Ford got three. Makai Lemon and Duce Robinson also contributed. The room may be a mess for fantasy purposes, but there’s still NFL upside for Branch, Lane, Lemon, and Robinson. Hudson is the wildcard. He’s been at USC forever and never really done much, but the USC helmet might get him drafted on Day 3.

On the LSU side, there is no Chris Hilton, so we may not have the full picture of their receiving room, but ten targets for Kyren Lacy and nine (!!!) for Mason Taylor is excellent news for both. Taylor should be considered a weekly starter at TE moving forward, and I’d start Lacy against virtually all opposition until further notice. Lacy can work his way into round two or three of the NFL draft this year if he continues to play like he did in this one. Aaron Anderson was also involved, but it isn’t a current target, in my estimation.

The running back room was disappointing for those holding Kaleb Jackson. Jackson gained significant weight this offseason and did not look as explosive as last year. He received fewer carries than John Emery Jr. and Josh Williams, but the touches were spread out enough that none of these guys are startable.