I am enjoying this exercise regarding look ahead lines. Last week, my initial lean was correct that Syracuse shouldn’t be a dog at home against Notre Dame. You could have grabbed them at +1 last week and now the Orange are sitting as a -2.5 point favorite. The same is true for Ole Miss who was catching 2.5 last week at this time, but now is a -2 point favorite at Texas A&M. I felt that +4 was too high for Pittsburgh and sure enough, they are now only +3. So, we’re cooking on our leans. Let’s find some more early value for week 10. As always, one risk is if the team you’re backing suffers a key injury on Saturday. However, I like jumping on these lines as they are usually softer than the numbers during game week.
Appalachian St @ Coastal Carolina -1.5
Oregon St @ Washington -5
Clemson -5.5 @ Notre Dame
Tennessee @ Georgia -11.5
Alabama -12.5 @ LSU
Texas Tech @ TCU -6.5
Syracuse -1 @ Pittsburgh
Texas -4.5 @ Kansas St
Right away, I see a little more value on the board than I did last week. Tennessee +11.5 feels really high, even with the game in Athens. This line will absolutely move based on this week’s games with Tennessee taking on Kentucky and UF/UGA going at it in Jacksonville. Based on some chatter I heard, there are some people that have power rankings with LSU as a 6-7 point dog to Alabama, so +12.5 may come down by next week. I anticipate sharp money will back LSU at home. My gut tells me Oregon St. catching 5 at Washington is a good value but the Beavers are just a mess on the road on both sides of the ball. I’m going to resist grabbing that at this time. Once Syracuse plays Notre Dame this weekend, there will be a common opponent triangle between ‘Cuse, Notre Dame and Clemson. You better believe that Clemson v. ND line will change based on the outcome in the JMA Dome this weekend. If you feel that you have a read on Syracuse v. Norte Dame, this presents an opportunity depending on how you’re leaning.
