Season Record 9-21
Just keep swimming. Three out of the last four weeks have been plus money so we’re certainly getting back on track. Another 2-1 week won’t cut it, so I’m looking for a few undefeated weekends coming up. This slate has a few real dirty games we’re going to go in on, I’d suggest you don’t schedule your day around watching some of these but hopefully they’ll still cash a ticket.
Liberty @ UConn +14.5
The 5-5 Huskies are one win away from bowl eligibility. Liberty is 8-1 and honestly keep defying all odds scooping up victories week in and week out. The Flames have played at least three QBs this season and it just doesn’t seem to matter. That being said, I think this is a great spot for UConn.
This may well be UConn’s super bowl. It’s their last home game and there’s a post season berth on the line. After this week they head to West Point to play the always tough Army Black Knights, so you better believe they will be as up as one can be for this game. Liberty has a strong defense, ranked top 25 in points per play overall. However, they are almost twice as lenient on the road this season. Conversely UConn’s defense ranked 32nd in the nation in opponent points per play when they are at home and bottom third on the road. You simply don’t walk in to Storrs and get an easy victory in 2022. I think the Huskies cover 14 and if you’re feeling real saucy, sprinkle that +460 moneyline.
Louisville @ Clemson -7
Clemson has taken a beating from me and many analysts this year. However, this is simply a play on what I think is an overblown line movement. Clemson looked bad at Notre Dame and Louisville is playing better, winning four straight. But this line was Clemson -13.5 prior to Saturday on the look ahead.
I can’t justify a full touchdown adjustment based off last week. Additionally, Clemson is at home and they should be thirsty for revenge. The ACC title is still in their grasp and even an outside shot at the playoff. They’ll be ready. As a final checkmark for the Clemson side, Louisville has been very bad on the road. Their points per play marks on both offense and defense take a major hit away from home.
FAU @ FIU +16
I promised you some dumpster diving and if UConn didn’t do the trick, this one should. The theme of the week is home road splits, and this game features another road team that just can’t seem to find their way outside of their friendly confines. FAU’s opponent points per play balloons from 0.303 (good) to 0.479 (bad) when they are away. Not only do they give up more points per play, but also more plays per game when they are not in Boca Raton.
Now, will that defensive disparity matter when they’re facing a lackluster FIU offense? Not so fast! While FIU started the season looking like a bottom-dwelling NAIA offense, they’re picked it up recently. They rank inside the top 50 in points per play over their last three games against Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, and North Texas. That is not exactly a murder’s row of defenses, but they’re still legitimate conference opponents. A bowl is not out of the question for FIU, which feels like an absolutely insane thing to say.