I am enjoying this exercise regarding look ahead lines. Last week, my initial lean was that Tennessee was too high and sure enough the look ahead was +11.5 and reopened at +9.5 and now sits at +8. I had the wrong read on Alabama -12.5 as I thought that might fall but now it’s at -13.5. I thought Oregon St +5 was too high and it had come down just a touch and landed at +4.5. The Clemson spread was -5.5 over Notre Dame but after Notre Dame beat up common opponent Syracuse it fell to -3.5.
East Carolina @ Cincinnati -6
UCF @ Tulane pk
Purdue @ Illinois -7
North Carolina @ Wake Forest -5
Kansas State @ Baylor -1.5
Louisville @ Clemson -13.5
Missouri @ Tennessee -20
Washington @ Oregon -12
TCU @ Texas -6
Alabama -14.5 @ Ole Miss
Georgia -17 @ Miss St
LSU -1 @ Arkansas
Wow, a lot of intriguing lines already on the board for week 11! I love ECU +6 immediately. The Pirates can run and that is the weak spot for Cincinnati. These are two evenly matched teams with ECU having an explosiveness edge (assuming Keaton Mitchell is healthy). Coming off a bye, I think ECU will be a live dog so obviously six points is appealing. The B1G West hangs in the balance when Purdue travels to Champagne in week 11. The stifling Illini defense will have it’s hands full with a surprisingly well-rounded Purdue offense with the emergence of freshman running back Devin Mockobee. This line could move either way and I think Purdue’s performance against Iowa in week 10 will impact what side of 7 this spread lands on. I will continue to be excited about UNC at plus money. I know TCU will eventually lose but I am just not close to sold on Texas or quarterback Quinn Ewers (at least he 2022 iteration). Texas is going to be in a dogfight at Kansas State this weekend, and TCU is on upset watch with a potential look-ahead spot vs. Texas Tech. Give me TCU +6 at Texas. And if the Frogs lose to Texas Tech, I’ll be even more interested in betting on them for a bounce back in week week 11. I Both dogs that play playoff contenders seem like value plays this week. Missouri (vs. Tennessee) and Mississippi State (vs. Georgia) get the beasts of the SEC East after their major showdown. I would lean taking in the points in both cases as of right now.
