Season Record 1-8
Absolutely brutal start to the season for my best plays. I have to save some face here and let you know I am up on the season, and NIL members ($7.99mo/79.99yr) get access to my entire card as well as Chris Moxley’s card. We’re averaging over ten bets each every week. The discord is lively on game days with real-time strategy sharing. Nevertheless, I have failed you so far. The winning streak starts now.
USF +14 @ Louisville
This Cardinals team is aimless. They beat UCF with the aid of two critical holding penalties (that otherwise would have been touchdowns) but simply p; thehe Satterfield era is winding down. Louisville is a poorly coached, undisciplined team that lacks defense. Specifically, their run defense is atrocious. Their rush expected points added (EPA) is ranked 121st in the country. Seventeen and a half points is far too many against any FBS opponent with a defense like that.
As far as USF goes, they are also not a great team. However, one thing they will do and do fairly well is run the football. Defensively, they are also insufficient. This line has come down over the last 48 hours. However, I still think they can hang within 14 point,ts and at least a backdoor cover shouldn’t be hard to find.
Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 60
These are two fairly evenly matched teams, with Texas still getting a lot of credit for their valiant effort against Alabama. And they should! That was a great performance. However, the facts are that Hudson Card is not going to save their season and will have to find some success against a stout Texas Tech pass defense. Bijan Robinson is a superst,ar but Tech can focus on him and at least limit his impact.
The Texas Tech offense has been bad. Offensive Coordinator Zack Kittley has not found that secret sauce he had at Western Kentucky a season ago. Donovan Smith has not been able to take control, while starter Tyler Shough has been shelved. I think the defense knows it has to come to play, and this will be an ugly contest. I like the Red Raiders getting six points, and strongly support a +185 moneyline play. However, I will stick with the game UNDER 60 points as my best bet.
Toledo -3 @ San Diego State
Now we turn to a sicko G5 non-conference matchup with the Rockets visiting the Aztecs. San Diego State has relied on a grinding offense and stout defense for years, winning ugly but still winning. I was bearish on their 2022 outlook and suggested we think about the under on their season win total of 7.5. I maintain that this team will struggle and a bowl game is in question. After losing as a favorite to Arizona and getting predictably punished by Utah, SDSU is down bad.
Toledo presents an intriguing matchup as they are excellent on offense and terrible on defense, the mirror image of SDSU. With one exception – this year, SDSU is 91st in EPA per pass. After years of good secondary play, attrition to the NFL looks to have taken a toll. I will usually side with offense over defense, and in this extreme example, I think the Rockets have the firepower to overwhelm SDSU. This line is moving towards Toledo, going from -1 to -3 as of this writing, but I still feel fine laying a field goal.