Before we ride off into the sunset, the 2025 CFF offseason, I wanted to look at the 2024 Underdog Best Ball Draft season. The idea here is to write down some of my biggest takeaways from the season and then remember to look back at this article when I start drafting next year. There’s a 50/50 shot that actually happens, but a man can dream…
No Upside. No Draft.
This first rule applies to all positions. If the player doesn’t possess some level of upside, he’s likely not worth taking. Considering the tournament format and how perfect you have to be once playoffs hit, there’s no reason to take a guy who is a 10-14 fantasy point guy. Yes, I’m looking at you, Kaytron Allen, Will Pauling, Kevin Concepcion, and Ohio State running backs, among others.
The best case is that your prediction that they have consistent production is there (and you have 5-6 other players who could trip and fall into similar performances). In the worst case, the player has a down year or makes poor play around him that kills that solid floor.
Only Players on Good Teams
I’m going to dig into this one deeper this offseason, but right off the cuff, I know I’ll be avoiding the worst of the worst teams in 2025. Sure, it’s hard to project Arizona State and BYU going from a 4.5-win total to competing for the Big 12, but it’s not hard to see Purdue, Houston, Stanford, UCLA, and Michigan State being bad teams.
Of these teams listed, were Max Klare and maybe Elic Ayomanor the only players worth taking in 2024? How productive can teams that win 2-5 games really be?! Look for this more in 2025!
Where There is Doubt, Dock
When evaluating the receiver position in 2025, I will examine whether the QB could tank, which wouldn’t surprise me. Yes, players improve, but sometimes players are who they are. Nobody saw Nico Iamaleava, Jackson Arnold, or Grayson McCall having as bad of years as they did.
But are we surprised that Maalik Murphy, Anthony Colandrea, DJU, and Alan Bowman were average at best? Each quarterback had one or more receivers that took hits when their performance was unsurprisingly bad. Jordan Moore, Malachi Fields, and Brennan Presley had fine seasons, but they weren’t what we hoped for when taking them in the top ten or so rounds. Malik Benson was a complete dud, but at least he didn’t cost you much.
Take a Shot
When looking at last offseason’s QB battles, more often than not, it was 100% worth taking a stab at the winner of the job. Let’s take a quick look at the ones we were drafting across the entire FBS:
Washington State: John Mateer vs Zevi Eckhaus
North Texas: Chandler Morris vs Would Morris attend North Texas?
UNLV: Hajj-Malik Williams vs Matthew Sluka
Houston: Donovan Smith vs Zeon Chriss
Arizona State: Sam Leavitt vs Jeff Sims
Boise State: Maddux Madsen vs Malachi Nelson
USC: Miller Moss vs Jayden Maiava
SDSU: Danny O’Neill vs AJ Duffy
Jacksonville State: Tyler Huff vs Logan Smothers
Tulane: Ty Thompson vs Kai Horton (vs Darian Mensah)
I have ten battles listed across the entire FBS, and without a doubt and any debate, five of those were 100% worth taking a shot at drafting. Mateer was the top QB in CFF. Chandler Morris was incredible, even if he struggled at the end. Hajj-Malik Williams was equally impressive once Sluka left Vegas. Tyler Huff was a top-10 QB, one spot below Morris. Sam Leavitt wasn’t a world-beater, but he was being drafted in the final rounds and averaged 23 fantasy points per game.
You could argue that Maddux Madsen was serviceable if drafted late and that Miller Moss was good enough until he wasn’t the quarterback anymore, but I won’t hear it. The other three situations were duds from a CFF perspective. Albeit it’s just one season, this is enough for me to consider taking a shot at these quarterback battles, especially when they’re in great systems.
Diversify Your Portfolio
It’s easy to spot great situations to draft, but it’s hard to determine who that replacement is for that great role in the offense. Think about all the picks we spent on Arizona, Alabama, Louisville, and LSU receivers to go along with Ole Miss running backs. Besides Arizona, those other teams had players we primarily were not drafting much, which beat their value by a good bit.
What would have been if we drafted Ryan Williams, Ja’Corey Brooks, Aaron Anderson, or Henry Parrish Jr. instead of Kobe Prentice, Kendrick Law, Chris Bell, Chris Hilton, CJ Daniels, Ulysses Bentley IV, and Rashod Amos?
Instead of drafting 20-30% of a player and inadvertently flag-planting one player late in drafts, we’re better off spreading that ownership to the 2-3 options we believe are in play.
