It’s March, and we’re pumping and dumping. We’re not quite at Cheesy Double Beef Burrito at Taco Bell levels of pumping and dumping, but we’re getting there. In this edition, we have my very first inadvertent pump and dump. Whoops! It happens, folks. Don’t act like you haven’t done it before!
This month, I’ve added a few recent draft results alongside any pertinent information. Without further ado, let’s get to this month’s candidates and who we will surely see their ADPs be significantly different come June/July!
Trent Walker, Oregon State, WR
-11.10
-7.06 (PPR)
Walker was a target monster for Oregon State, owning 34% of the target share for the Beavers, which meant 122 on the season! Really great stuff from a guy nobody was drafting a year ago. Now, though, his price has become quite steep for my liking. My issue with him is that his yards per target (7.4) is low on a team that would prefer to run the football. Walker scored just twice last season, and while his 81/901/2 stat line is respectable, 23/287/0 of that came in two games. Nearly 32% of his yards received and 28% of his receptions came in just 16.7% of his contests.
For P4 receivers, Walker was WR34 in PPR and WR40 in .5PPR (Underdog scoring). As discussed: new year, new Chris. Give me the upside. And by mid-summer, when more battles shake out, we’ll see this ADP drop to the mid-teens or more.
Jamal Haynes, Georgia Tech, RB
-5.03
-4.05
Fine, I’ll admit it. I am a part of this Jamal Haynes problem. In Jared’s Way Too Early Mock Draft, I took Haynes at 4.03. In my defense, it was the start of February, and I immediately knew what I had done. Haynes is a solid pick but possesses zero upside and will not have high usage this fall.
The Georgia Tech offense runs through the tremendous mobile threat of Haynes King, and they love to use multiple backs. This was seen by Jamal Haynes rushing 13 times per game in 2024. Sure, he struggled against VMI (7/19/0 what? How?) and Notre Dame (8/15/1), but how do you limit his usage in so many games? At the end of the day, this philosophy isn’t changing, and thus, we should be drafting accordingly.
LJ Martin, BYU, RB
-5.07
-6.01
Once a cash cow, the BYU RB1 role has not produced as we wanted it to in the past three seasons. In 2021 and 2022, Tyler Allgeier ran for a combined 2,736 yards. In the past two seasons, BYU has run for a combined 3,345 yards. Let that soak in for a second. I don’t want to jump to any conclusions, but this isn’t the same Cougars offense we used to capitalize on. With Jake Retzlaff under center, we’re also seeing a potential vulture around the goal line. He ran 100 times for 417 yards and six touchdowns this past season.
If anyone will bring back the BYU RB1 cash cow, it’s Martin. I’ll give everyone that. He looked good when he touched the rock last season. Conversely, he’s not much of a contributor in the passing game, catching just ten passes in as many games in 2024.
Micah Alejado, Hawai’i, QB
-6.02 (QB9)
-4.09 (QB7)
People drafting Alejado this high right now are doing it for nostalgic reasons, right? We all want Hawaii to be the Hawaii of old, but has Timmy Chang shown enough to believe that will happen in 2025?
Fans of Alejado are grabbing ahold of his incredible five touchdown performance against New Mexico, and I understand why. He threw it 57 times and ran another ten times in the 8-point win. The problem here is that New Mexico was trash defensively. They gave up the sixth-most passing yards in the FBS in 2024, including 342 yards and three touchdowns to Wyoming. Alejado is certainly worthy of a respectable ADP, but in a year with so many great options, this price tag is way too high.
Hingle McCringleberry Watch
Justin Joly, NC State, TE
-7.10 (TE2)
-8.10 (TE3)
In the seventh and eighth rounds, is Joly two pumps or three? McCringbleberry watch is for those players who are teetering towards throwing the flag on, and Joly, at this high of a pick, fits that mold. I see nothing wrong with the pick… yet. Does that third pump come, and he’s being taken as the TE1? If so, then you’ll be seeing him here in the future.
Joly saw the second most targets last season but that still only equated to 58 targets. His 11.4YPT number was awesome though and it was evident that he could pop a big play. I get the appeal here, but I don’t think I could go any higher on his cost.
