Welcome back to the next installment of the Draft Watchlist series. For my sanity, I will not be going nearly as deep as the WR article. This should be a more inspiring group than last year. I’m going to break down my top ten and provide some metrics. I know there are more accurate metrics for Running backs, but this article is not based on analytics, and I want to provide some statistical context.
- Size/age – Size matters for RBs and often helps dictate their role in an offense. Beefier RBs are used for goal-line work and up the middle. Smaller RBs are used around edges more often, and passing pays. Age because we all know RBs generally have an earlier expiration date than other positions, except those just built differently; long live the King.
- Experience – How many years out of HS? This is what dictates Draft eligibility, but historically, the league does not target older RB prospects (fifth years) with Day 1 or 2 draft capital
- DOM – Dominator – just showing how much of the offense each RB accounted for
- AYPTP – Adjusted yards per team play
- RecMS – Reception Market Share – RBs are asked to do more than just run; they need to be well-rounded or succumb to a committee role. Pass-catching ability will keep players on the field during 3rd down situations
- Early Draft Projection – My current projection of where the prospect will be drafted. It’s early, but by Week 5, we should understand how this draft class is shaping out
Overall, I think the class has a ton of guys with potential. I do personally feel like I say that a lot, but there is a lack of high-end talent going into the year.
RB1 – TreVeyon Henderson
- 5’10” / 207 lbs / 21.9yrs
- 4th year
- DOM: 28.21%
- RecMS: 6.55%
- AYPTP: 1.67
- Projected DC: 2nd – Early 3rd
Henderson looked like his old, healthy self at the end of last year. He’s an explosive, shifty, fast accelerator with good vision. His big flaw is his ability as an interior runner; power back playstyle isn’t a part of his game. He’s also not the tackle-breaking machine that you see from bigger backs. Those flaws are becoming less and less of a red flag, and the NFL has moved away from the big power-back running back style in search of elusive backs that have homerun ability. This fits Henderson’s playstyle.
The other issue is the split backfield with fellow watchlist RB Quinshon Judkins. These two players do have a complementary playstyle. I assume Henderson will get the majority as the veteran presence and the guy who’s been a part of the system the longest. I’m expecting it to be a 60/40 split, nothing insane.
RB2 – Quinshon Judkins
- 6’0″ / 219 lbs / 20.9yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 28.48%
- RecMS: 4.01%
- AYPTP: 1.57
- Projected DC: 2nd-3rd
As mentioned in the above write-up for Henderson, Judkins left Ole Miss with some bad blood. I don’t think it’s wrong to question if he’s a team player, but we will never know the details, and the transfer is essential for a fresh start on that front. That type of analysis is all speculative, and we won’t get a good feel until teams conduct their NFL draft interviews.
The bruising RB struggled last year, looking almost too patient behind a line that failed to open holes for him. Judkins has one-cut ability, but he’s not the type of athlete to successfully bounce runs out wide. He fixed his playstyle a bit more in the later end of the year being more decisive when there was no hole and choosing to power through. Judkins and Henderson have complementary skill sets, and both exhibit NFL traits. How realistic is it for two RBs from the same team to get drafted on Day 2 or better? Here is the recent history:
- 2019: Josh Jacobs (1.24) & Damien Harris (3.87)
- 2018: Sony Michel (1.31) & Nick Chubb (2.35)
- 2016: Derrick Henry (2.45) & Kenyan Drake (3.73)
It’s rare, it’s been five years, but it does happen. We’re due.
RB3 – Devin Neal
- 5’11” / 215 lbs / 21.0yrs
- 4th year
- DOM: 27.23%
- RecMS: 6.95%
- AYPTP: 2.12
- Projected DC: 2nd-3rd
It broke my heart that Devin Neal did not declare last year, I assume there just wasn’t enough hype since he’s coming from Kansas. Neal is a complete package of athleticism and explosive ability a as runner. He’s improved every year as a rusher and passer, not just from a raw number standpoint but in advanced metrics. Neal has cleaned up his footwork over the years. He’s elusive and has the burst to capitalize on the space created. He’s a plus in the passing game, comfortable with pass-catching assignments beyond 3 yards from the line of scrimmage.
Neal is the complete package, but how much has he benefitted from being a part of Andy Kotelnicki’s offensive system, which uses a ton of pre-snap motion to create mismatches against the defense? Regardless, the traits and production are there, and some teams will look at the lack of ware as a plus. Neal is a starting NFL workhorse back, but I do have a small concern about whether he will play well in a more traditional offense.
RB4 – Nick Singleton
- 6’0″ / 227 lbs / 20.6yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 19.92%
- RecMS: 11.02%
- AYPTP: 1.48
- Projected DC: 2nd-3rd
Nick Singleton has first-round potential; he is by far the greatest athlete on this list but is one of the more unrefined runners. Playing at PSU was bland, but we saw a Year 2 Singleton who put forth the effort to improve and show us that he can be an interior runner. He wasn’t successful, but I do appreciate the attempt to show us.
Now, I want him to return to his early days of bouncing it out wide and winning with pure athleticism. It’s usually a statement I would never say for an NFL prospect, but Singleton is that level of athlete. Singleton will inherit Devin Neal’s old OC in Andy Kotelnicki, and the vibes around the company are that we will see a revamped offense at PSU that will operate through the ground game.
The devaluation of RB has me questioning how much it matters for an RB to refine their craft if NFL teams will just draft them with only the intent to use them on their cheap rookie contract. A position that appears to be moving in the direction of OCs just pointing in a direction and saying “go”. I am very optimistic about Nick Singleton, but cautiously so.
RB5 – Trevor Etienne
- 5’9″ / 205 lbs / 20.1yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 22.52%
- RecMS: 5.57%
- AYPTP: 1.35
- Projected DC: 2nd-3rd
The younger brother of NFL star Travis Etienne finds himself with a new offense in Georgia. Trevor Etienne was stuck in a split backfield at Florida and chose to hit the portal looking for more opportunities to be the guy and increase his draft stock. Georgia has a decent history at RB, but recently, they’ve been plagued with injuries paving a clear path to touches.
Etienne has proven his ability to be a workhorse in Florida with decent efficiency, and Florida will allow him to take on the workload of a workhorse. Etienne checks the boxes of base level athleticism, vision, and skillset, just needs the production profile.
RB6 – Ollie Gordon
- 6’2″ / 225 lbs / 20.6yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 41.54%
- RecMS: 8.52%
- AYPTP: 2.35
- Projected DC: 2nd-3rd
Ollie Gordon is a patient runner with nimble feet. He excels in the open field, where he can make the correct read when identifying lanes for maximum gain. I believe he struggles when there are no open lanes and needs space created for him initially. He makes the correct reads once he has a feel for how the play develops in front of him.
Gordon had a slight frame in the 2023 season and now appears to have put on weight to help play physically and power through tackles. A lot of his game reminds me of a taller, softer version of Ken Walker III. I’m excited to see how the added weight changes his game. I would feel it’s appropriate to remind everyone it’s not just about production profiles by bringing up the history of HC Mike Gundy’s running back production with where they were drafted:
- ’04 – Tatum Bell: 1346yds / 16TDs (2.09)
- ’05 – Vernand Morency: 1474yds / 12TDs (3.09)
- ’11 – Kendall Hunter: 1555yds / 16TDs (4.18)
- ’13 – Joseph Randle: 1417yds / 14TDs (5.18)
- ’17 – Chris Carson: 559yds / 9TDs (7.31)
- ’19 – Justice Hill: 1467yds / 15TDs (4.11)
- ’21 – Chuba Hubbard: 2094yds / 24TDs (4.21)
Mike Gundy has a stellar record of ultra-productive RBs, most of whom fail to make an impact in the NFL. Gordon is the next chapter of this saga, but I have more confidence that he’ll make an impact on an NFL roster.
RB7 – Damien Martinez
- 6’0″ / 231 lbs / 20.6yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 23.29%
- RecMS: 4%
- AYPTP: 1.74
- Projected DC: late 2nd-4th
Damien Martinez has a thick, stout build with a decent one-cut running style. He also has better vision when identifying cut-back lanes in the group. His progression through his first two years has been noticeable, from just following his block to gaining that game sense for when to create on his own for extra yardage. Martinez finds himself in Miami after a late jump into the portal. Miami loves to use power backs, and Martinez should fit into the scheme nicely without any internal competition for touches.
The main concern with his translation to the NFL is his lack of use in the passing and blocking game. I’m not saying he can’t block, but at 6’0″ and 230 lbs, he feels like an RB build that should be wanted on the field to block. Martinez is one of the better interior runners, but the concern is that there’s a chance he’ll be used as an early downback at the next level.
RB8 – DJ Giddens
- 6’1″ / 212 lbs / 21.0yrs
- 4th year
- DOM: 24.38%
- RecMS: 10.3%
- AYPTP: 1.95
- Projected DC: 3rd-4th
The local walk-on turned star will be entering his fourth year for Kansas St. DJ Giddens has been drawing comps for Rachaad White from our own Cory Pereira, and it fits him nicely. Giddens has a complete workhorse skillset, a capable blocker, and a plus pass catcher. As a runner, he’s a blend of elusiveness and size with good footwork. He has workhorse size but power is not his calling card. Don’t hear what I’m not saying; Giddens is not soft; he’s just not getting drafted for his ability as a hammer. Short area movement isn’t a problem for him, but overall athleticism won’t let him ‘wow’ at the combine, and is his overall negative as a ceiling play.
RB9 – Ashton Jeanty
- 5’9″ / 215lbs / 20.7yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 32.36%
- RecMS: 18.37%
- Projected DC: 3rd – 4th
Jeanty is the best pass-catching back in the class, a 3-star gem for Boise. He checks the boxes as a runner, but this is mainly against G5 competition. His performances vs. P5 have been fine, but he never averaged 5 YPC in a single game; this could be blamed on the gap in trench ability between the two teams. The history of G5 RBs getting drafted on Day 2 has been bleak lately, with Tyjae Spears getting drafted in the third of 2023 and Kareem Hunt getting drafted in the third round of 2017.
Jeanty’s skillset is certainly an NFL asset, but is it as a rotational piece in a committee, or could he hit his ceiling of having an Austin Ekler-type career? I am also a little concerned about the measured athleticism when the combine comes around. Jeanty is likely just average at best.
RB10 – Raheim Sanders
- 6’0″ / 230 lbs / 22.2yrs
- 4th year
- DOM: 9.52%
- RecMS: 3.33%
- AYPTP: .45
- Projected DC: 3rd – 6th
Once hailed as the RB1, but after the disaster of the 2023 season, the question many are asking is, how can you defend Raheim Sanders? It’s easy; a lot of early draft analysis, or even Devy, is all about projection. However, we (the audience) have seen Raheim be great, and his 2022 season undoubtedly showcased him as a top-tier NFL running back. The failures of 2023 are due to a lingering injury, and Raheim hit the gym too hard and got his weight up to 245, which ruined his functional mobility. He’s now lost weight, in a new system, and is reportedly healthy. Sanders has been great once, he can do it again and deserves to still be considered in this range of players.
RB11 – Jaydn Ott
- 6’0″ / 200 lbs / 21.8yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 30.09%
- RecMS: 6.91%
- AYPTP: 1.83
- Projected DC: 4th – 5th
Jaydn Ott’s running style concerns me; he’s a decisive, upright runner with an excellent first step. Power isn’t a part of his game; it’s efficient movement and avoiding contact. His lateral movement certainly is not one of the top in the group, either. Ott relies on subtle movements to manipulate defenders. I’m not convinced that all of this will translate to the NFL. There are shades of Sean Tucker in him, but I won’t deny that Ott is an asset as a pass catcher, specifically his ability to translate to a runner after the catch. Ott will find a place in the NFL as a change of pace back, but not as a lead role.
RB12 – Omarion Hampton
- 6’0″ / 220 lbs / 21.4yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 30.79%
- RecMS: 5.72%
- AYPTP: 2.03
- Projected DC: 4th – 5th
Hampton has that old-school bruiser with light feet type of play style. If FOMO were an RB, it would be Omarion Hampton. He’s impatient behind the line, not always looking for the big gain through a cut-back lane, but likes to lower the pads and get a few yards quickly. He very much prefers a north/south running style. Hampton can create space, but he struggles to capitalize. He’s light on his feet but dances too much because he lacks that good first step to quickly get up to top speed. The UNC offense lacks any playmakers, so I assume the offense will run through Hampton and, unfortunately, lead to easy game planning by defenses. This year is pivotal for Hampton and a true litmus test.
RB13 – Jordan James
- 5’10” / 205 lbs / 20.4yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 16.87%
- RecMS: 2.72%
- AYPTP: 1.08
- Projected DC: 4th – 5th
A decisive downhill runner with a reported size of 200 lbs…… yeah, I don’t know about that, chief. Jordan is set to break out this year for Oregon. Our database has him down as a terrible athlete, but I don’t think that matches what’s on the field. He’s a tough, instinctual runner with good decision-making. I’d like to see him add a little more strength to add a power element to his game, and he’s unproven in the pass-catching skillset. Jordan is also one of the faster RBs to hit his top gear. There’s a lot of breakout potential, but this one is a little too much of a mystery box at this time. The bright spots are his decision-making and acceleration.
RB14 – Kaytron Allen
- 5’11” / 221 lbs / 21.6yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 16.7%
- RecMS: 2.9%
- AYPTP: 1.15
- Projected DC: 4th – 6th
Like Singleton, Kaytron Allen is set to benefit from an improved offensive system under new OC Andy Kotelnicki. Allen is more on the spectrum of your average collegiate power back who is tied to a team that always has an NFL spotlight. He has middling athleticism and I expect the combine to reflect that. I am cautiously optimistic that the new system will show us a side of Kaytron’s skillset we haven’t seen. I believe he likely stays in college for an extra year to be the primary lead back.
RB15 – Jaydon Blue
- 6’0″ / 200 lbs / 20.5yrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 8.19%
- RecMS: 3.34%
- AYPTP: .67
- Projected DC: 4th – 6th
Blue is likely a pure pass-catching back at the next level. He displayed excellent efficiency last year, but I believe it was primarily due to superior line play. The current Texas RB1 (Cedric Baxter) falls to injury, and Blue steps in as Sark’s RB1. He did not earn this role, and this will be the first year Texas plays in the SEC. Blue’s game lacks any power to break tackles but relies on elusiveness, and this writer believes Blue is a soft runner. He relies on quickness, identifying the open hole, and quick acceleration. Blue has a pass-catching role written all over him at the never level, and that is my expectation.
RB16 – Jam Miller
- 5’10” / 212 lbs / 20.Xyrs
- 3rd year
- DOM: 4.54%
- RecMS: 2.37%
- AYPTP: .39
- Projected DC: 5th-6th
Talk about mystery boxes; the following write-up will be more obligatory. Jam struggled to see meaningful play last year but is a part of a new coaching system. It is commonly talked about in this company how explosive Miller was as a pass catcher in high school. He checks boxes on paper, but we haven’t seen him do anything meaningful on the field. The off-season reports are also glowing. This could be the next Roydell Williams situation (A middling RB who’s always talked up each offseason, has an opportunity to prove something, and nothing ever happens, wasting all our time. Every year). Anyway, I’m finally excited to see more of Jam Miller to gauge who he is as a player better. I still believe he could be an NFL-level pass-catching RB, but he needs to prove it, and I’m hoping he can be more than that.
Lightning Round
AKA, I’m tired of writing. Here are a few guys that will probably be over-talked about during the predraft cycle to be forgotten by 2026.
RB17 – LeQuint Allen
- 6’0″ / 201 lbs / 20.0yrs
- Projected DC:
The catching back who is an ordinary athlete, not a guy you want to run in the interior at the next level.
RB18 – Kyle Monangai
- 5’9″ / 209 lbs / 22.Xyrs
- Projected DC: 5th – 6th
Ordinary, productive power back, an older prospect, not a top-tier athlete. Rotational piece at the next level.
RB19 – Chip Trayanum
- 5’11” / 227 lbs / 22.Xyrs
- Projected DC: 5th-7th
See Above, plus program history and reportedly good measured athleticism.
RB20 – Phil Mafah
- 6’1″ / 230 lbs / 21.8yrs
- Projected DC: 5th-7th
He is another ordinary power back who will be productive in the Power 4 this year and is not a special athlete. Also, he has to stop fumbling during key moments. It’s a minor fix, but the people will remember it.
RB21 – Donovan Edwards
- 6’1″ / 212 lbs / 21.5yrs
- Projected DC: 5th-7th
He is a great athlete and has the opportunity. One good year and everyone will forget how bad he was in 2023. If only he had the vision to see the massive holes his OLine creates for him.
RB22 – Tahj Brooks
- 5’10” / 230 lbs / 22.4yrs
- Projected DC: 7th – UDFA
He’s just a tank with some lateral ability. He shreds tackles, too; I can’t wait to see him run a 4.75 40 at the combine.
