Bringing back an old series, NFL Draft Stock Watch, an entire article filled with not my opinion but my spelling and grammatical errors, what a treat! Paraphrasing NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, “[I mock draft with my ears and create big boards with my eyes].” The top of the mock drafting community mixes in a heavy dose of insider news into their mocks because there is an accuracy competition. I’m confident there’s a level of smoke & mirror to some leaked information, but it’s the best we got.
Typically, when you see a big board, that is the person’s individual ranks. I find mock drafts this early a bit too…. erratic, but they do show public perception and trends in player values. We’re going to look at the relative movement of NFL draft prospects from where they were being mock drafted in the month of August compared to mock drafts since September 30th. I will only take into account full mock drafts, not team-specific mock drafts.
Let me point out the major flaw in this article: there are few preseason mock drafts, and they are not that deep. If they are left off mock drafts, sample sizes will be small.
IN FUTURE ARTICLES
To help balance out the values, I will assume players left off mock drafts would be the next pickup and add them as the 101st pick. For example, if Sheduer was in nine mock drafts and Cam Ward was present in only eight, I would assume Ward was the 101st pick in that mock draft he was left out of.
For now, it’s too early to make those adjustments. Movement should be very fluid as the season progresses. It’s not perfect, but it should reward those present in mocks and punish those who are absent. I will outline how many mock drafts each player was present in by giving the number of mocks in the “().” This article will have multiple parts, and data size will not become an issue by the time the off-season swings into gear.
Seasonal Breakdown
I view the season in thirds, with the first four weeks setting the tone for which players are a part of the game plan, which players will be breaking out, etc. The next four weeks are in conference play, solidifying the ability to predict the production profiles. Let’s get into it; I’m planning to break the position groups down into:
- Top 5 QBs
- Top 10 RBs
- Top 15 WRs
- Top 5 TEs
Let’s be real; I will give my commentary, but these mock drafts do not contain my opinions. I also may expand the groups if there are interesting names worth noting.
Quarterbacks
QB1 – Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
- Pre-season (13): 1.26
- Present Day (9): 1.11
- Trending Movement: +15
Sanders positively trended up mock drafts through the easy pre-season schedule and still had one mock draft with him as the 1.01. The schedule is getting more challenging, but they don’t face many tough defenses in the Big 12. The remainder of the mock draft movement will be minimal until the insider information starts moving in the off-season.
QB2 – Cam Ward, Miami
- Pre-season (4): 2.42
- Present Day (8): 1.19
- Trending Movement: +23
Trending up since the season. Ward was a quick NFL declaration before deciding to head back for another season with a new team. Upon taking his name out of the 2024 NFL draft, Dane Bruglar asked a few NFL scouts what they had on Ward, and all of them answered a fifth-round grade. It was the right move for Ward to come back to college and it looks like it is paying off.
QB3 – Carson Beck, Georgia
- Pre-season (14): 1.17
- Present Day (9): 1.20
- Trending Movement: -3
There is a downward trend for Beck, who looked elite as a passer last year. However, he looks a bit more average to me in the first half of these tough games and makes great adjustments in the second half. I still believe in Beck, and we live in an era where super teams don’t exist anymore, but I want the 2024 Beck.
QB4 – Jalen Milroe, Alabama
- Pre-season (4): 2.41
- Present Day (7): 1.21
- Trending Movement: +20
Another upward trend passed up by Ward, Milroe’s game against Georgia was beautiful, but he came back down to earth in his showing against Vandy. In this writer’s opinion, there’s evident growth in Milroe’s game with quality wins against quality opponents. At this point, I do not expect him to fall out of the first round of mock drafts.
QB5 – Quinn Ewers, Texas
- Pre-season (9): 1.30
- Present Day (7): 1.28
- Trending Movement: +2
Shoutout to the guy named Jeff from Draftwire. He is single-handedly tanking Ewers. Just for comparison reasons, if we leave out Jeff, Quinn’s mock draft position is 1.16. Ewers is currently injured, so public perception may go down with him off the big screen.
QB6 – Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
- Pre-season (2): 2.51
- Present Day (4): 2.46
- Trending Movement: +5
I think the real takeaway from this one is that Nussmeier wasn’t involved in mock drafts, almost at all, in the off-season. However, his presence has increased in the last two weeks, and he’s found himself in the early second round in most of those mocks. I would ignore the averages but acknowledge that the NFL perceives Nussmeier more positively.
QB7 – Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
- Pre-season (3): 2.58
- Present Day (6): 3.75
- Trending Movement: -17
Dart appears in more mock drafts but has consistently been in the round 2-3 category from the preseason to the present day. Although he has had shaky performances lately against tough defensive opponents, this writer believes Dart is trending toward being a mid-round backup quarterback at the NFL level.
General QB Thoughts
This class had serious potential to end up like the 2022 quarterback class. Still, a mix of five quarterbacks is being mock-drafted in the first round, along with Nussmeier, who has been trending to get his name into those discussions. I do think it’s unrealistic to think there could be six first-round quarterbacks, but the class is far more exciting than it was in the off-season.
Running Backs
RB1 – Ashton Jeanty, Boise St.
- Pre-season (12): 1.26
- Present Day (8): 1.15
- Trending Movement: +11
I was surprised to find so many mock drafts with Jeanty already a first-round projection in the pre-season. Regardless, what he has done is miraculous. He’s currently trending to be the first G5 RB drafted in the first round since 2018, Rashaad Penny.
RB2 – Quinshon Judkins, Ohio St.
- Pre-season (12): 1.22
- Present Day (7): 2.40
- Trending Movement: -18
Judkins is on a downward trend, but I think this is due to him being overvalued in the pre-season. I assume the world expected a split, but Judkins has lately been getting more of the split and looking better than this running mate in the backfield. I would be surprised if he dropped much further, and I feel positive that his value will start to level out here.
RB3 – Omarion Hampton, UNC
- Pre-season (10): 2.40
- Present Day (5): 2.46
- Trending Movement: -6
So, first off, there’s a downward trend. Second, he’s showing up in fewer mock drafts than the names above him. We’re only six games in, but Hampton’s performance against P4 teams has averaged 4 YPC. I would be very surprised if he holds this position by the end of the season.
RB4 – Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma St.
- Pre-season (11): 2.34
- Present Day (6): 2.52
- Trending Movement: -18
I can’t believe he’s still in the second round of mock drafts from the last two weeks. How do these drafters think Gordon will turn it around at this point? The trending movement should be more drastic at this point, but regardless, Gordon will likely return to school with his current production profile trend.
RB5 – TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St.
- Pre-season (6): 2.53
- Present Day (5): 2.60
- Trending Movement: -7
As mentioned above, Judkins looks like the 1A in the backfield. Henderson still has a translatable skillset, but a strong production profile would make everyone more confident. This downward trend makes sense, but how far will it go?
RB6 – Nick Singleton, Penn State
- Pre-season (6): 2.65
- Present Day (4): 2.61
- Trending Movement: +4
It’s trending in the right direction, but I thought we would see more movement than this. Singleton’s biggest jump will probably be after the NFL combine.
RB7 – Jaydn Ott, Cal
- Pre-season (2): 3.90
- Present Day (4): 3.65
- Trending Movement: +25
I’m surprised Ott wasn’t in more mocks heading into the season and trending down. He’s been inefficient as a runner so far, but he’s an excellent pass catcher. He’s certainly in debates as one of the best change-of-pace RBs in the class.
RB8 – Kaleel Mullings, Michigan
- Pre-season (0): N/A
- Present Day (3): 3.93
- Trending Movement: +7
Michigan RB1s getting mock-drafted on Day 2; some things never change.
General RB Thoughts
Unfortunately, I had to end it there; a ton of RBs show up on anywhere between 2-3 mock drafts. The sample size feels too small to bother listing; it feels like malpractice at this point. Here are just some random findings:
- Texas RB Jaydon Blue and Michigan RB Donovan Edwards haven’t made it to a single mock draft since the season started
- Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson has only made it to one round of six mocks since his breakout started
- Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai and Georgia RB Trevor Etienne have been mock-drafted once a month by the same writer. Monangai is consistently in the 4th or 5th, and Etienne floats between the 3rd and 4th rounds.
- Oregon RB Jordan James has only shown up in two team mock drafts EVER.
- Kansas RB Devin Neal has actually shown up in two pre-season and two current mock drafts; he floats between late second and mid-third.
- UCF RB RJ Harvey has never been in a pre-season mock draft but is present in two in-season mock drafts. (50th and 165th)
- Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson and Kansas St RB DJ Giddens have never been in a mock draft.
Wide Receivers
WR1 – Travis Hunter, Colorado
- Pre-season (14): 1.05
- Present Day (9): 1.01
- Trending Movement: +4
Whelp, the only way to go from here is down. Hunter will be a WR at the next level, and I’m sure he can be rotated as the CB5/6 if the team has injuries, but he’s a nickel slot. Anyway, that’s not what this article is about. When the draft rolls around, I would bet my house that Hunter is not the 1.01, but he’s locked up on Day 1.
WR2 – Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
- Pre-season (14): 1.11
- Present Day (9): 1.06
- Trending Movement: +5
McMillan shouldn’t see much movement. Maybe he goes down a bit when QBs inevitably get pushed up, and there’s clarity with linemen, but he should stay in this range.
WR3 – Luther Burden, Missouri
- Pre-season (14): 1.08
- Present Day (9): 1.07
- Trending Movement: -1
It’s the same as McMillan above.
WR4 – Isaiah Bond, Texas
- Pre-season (9): 2.39
- Present Day (6): 1.21
- Trending Movement: +18
Bond probably stays in this range. The Texas schedule gets harder as this season moves along, so Bond has a chance to improve his stock if he crushes quality opponents.
WR5 – Emeka Egbuka, Ohio St.
- Pre-season (13): 1.20
- Present Day (9): 1.23
- Trending Movement: -3
Minimal movement – should stay in this range.
WR6 – Tre Harris, Ole Miss
- Pre-season (13): 3.65
- Present Day (6): 2.45
- Trending Movement: +20
Insane production from an SEC WR will always boost him in the early mock drafts. This value is a bit rich for my blood, but this production level should always be acknowledged. I expect Harris to go down during the post-season when the skillsets get picked over.
WR7 – Evan Stewart, Oregon
- Pre-season (13):2.42
- Present Day (6): 2.60
- Trending Movement: -18
Stewart should continue to spiral down. This isn’t a player eval article, but I think he still has the top-tier skillset; it’s just not getting used at Oregon. Regardless, the production is so bad that I doubt he will come out at this rate
WR8 – Elic Ayomanor, Stanford
- Pre-season (6):2.48
- Present Day (5): 2.64
- Trending Movement: -16
Ayomanor became famous after his 300-yard game against Travis Hunter. Without any big games, he will continue to fall a bit more.
WR9 – Deion Burks, Oklahoma
- Pre-season (4):2.45
- Present Day (4): 2.64
- Trending Movement: -19
The Purdue transfer had some real hype going into the season, but it looks like he has been a casualty of the insufficient passing offense. He’s currently injured, but there’s still a chance he can get back on track.
WR10 – Tory Horton, Colorado St.
- Pre-season (6):2.43
- Present Day (6): 2.66
- Trending Movement: -23
It’s not surprising to see Horton here as a G5 favorite, but it’s a little surprising, given his slow start with injuries.
W11 – Antwane Wells, Ole Miss
- Pre-season (4): 2.58
- Present Day (4): 2.69
- Trending Movement: -11
I am surprised to see him still mocked this high. I assume he will drop off completely by the end of the season.
General WR Thoughts
Same as the RBs, I had to end it there; a ton of WRs show up on anywhere between 2-3 mock drafts. The sample size feels too small to bother listing; it feels like malpractice at this point. Here are just some random findings:
- Maryland WR Tai Felton has appeared in two recent mock drafts in the back of the third, and WR Kaden Prather has appeared in the second round of a recent mock.
- Oklahoma WR Nic Anderson has been in three pre-season and three recent mocks. I don’t understand because he hasn’t played at all, and I expect a complete falloff by the end of the season.
- LSU WR Kyren Lacy has appeared in two recent mocks (83rd and 158th)
- Utah St WR Jalen Royals has been mocked in the fourth by the same writer three months in a row.
- Miami WR Xavier Restrepo has been mocked three times pre-season and three times in the last two weeks; he’s either a late third-rounder or sixth-rounder.
- Alabama WR Germie Bernard and Clemson WR Antonio Williams haven’t been in a mock draft since June.
- Texas WR Matthew Golden has only been mocked by the same drafter every month. He floats between the second and third rounds.
- Kentucky WR Barion Brown has only been mocked once since the season started (180th).
Tight Ends
TE1 – Colston Loveland, Michigan
- Pre-season (13): 1.19
- Present Day (9): 1.22
- Trending Movement: -3
Loveland was the favorite TE coming into the season; I wonder if he will keep this title all the way through to the NFL Draft. I expect this to move a bit more with athletic testing.
TE2 – Tyler Warren, Penn State
- Pre-season (3): 2 46
- Present Day (4): 2.50
- Trending Movement: -4
I’m surprised there are only a few mock drafters on Warren now. By the end of the season, I expect to see him in every mock draft; he will probably stay in that same second-round territory.
TE3 – Harold Fannin, BGSU
- Pre-season (1): 5.146
- Present Day (3): 3.66
- Trending Movement: +80
Only one mock draft pre-season looks insane, but his production has been wild. I know there’s some measurable skepticism, but until we hit the combine for answers, Fannin will probably be moving up in mock drafts.
TE4 – Jack Velling, Michigan St.
- Pre-season (1): 4.108
- Present Day (3): 3.78
- Trending Movement: +30
A popular dark horse TE name in the off-season, Velling followed his coach to MSU, where he was the only real veteran target for the offense. His value fluctuates between the third round and early Day 3.
TE5 – Luke Lachey, Iowa
- Pre-season (4): 2.53
- Present Day (4): 3.84
- Trending Movement: -31
A steep drop for Lachey makes sense, given his lack of production. It’s always hard to count out an Iowa TE. If this level of production continues, I expect to see him in the third to fourth range.
