Mere hours after the college football final scores are in for the week, my mind is busy formulating this week’s Beat. Waivers, trades, numbers flying around my head, ways we can attack our teams… complicated algorithms abound, and a plan is laid in place.
I’m fully pivoting away from waivers; they will get merely a quick mention and focus more on strategy. By this point in the college season, I am almost done with waivers in C2C unless it’s a split waiver run.
By now, we have an excellent idea if our teams are pretenders or contenders, particularly in college, as we are nearly halfway to the playoffs. Let’s take a look at scenarios.
The NCAA Beat
Waivers, here you go; take a gander at the latest CFF Waiver Target article. It’s got targets if you still have waivers running and need help with college production. I’m not saying I am entirely done with waivers, but I’ve been burned by chasing points too often as the season progresses. I still like guys like Hajj-Malik Williams, Jaden Nixon, and Skyler Bell, but I’m not investing much in getting them.
I Coulda Been a Contender
You’re back down on the mat, staring up at a 0-5 or 1-4 record. Getting bludgeoned every week as you struggle to field a winning lineup. It’s time to call it a wrap, right?
Not necessarily, but you have to take an in-depth, honest look. Most college fantasy seasons go until Week 11, so you most likely have to win out. Unless you have a spot for points and your team is scoring well but losing. Which is it?
The World Ain’t All Sunshine and Rainbows
It’s not, and that’s okay. Sometimes, our best intentions don’t pan out, and sometimes, our players fail to cooperate with what we want them to do. How dare they! So, we need to honestly assess what our best players are, which hold the most value, and which have an NFL future.
First, get rid of college-only players, particularly those with little eligibility left. It’s tough to say a player is done after this year; the years fluctuate, and players can always find more eligibility. But if a player has been in college for five or six years or more (Cam Rising), they should be on your list to move now.
QBs to Move: Behren Morton (QB13), Kyle McCord (QB16), Kurtis Rourke (QB20), Haynes King (QB21), Taylen Green (QB28), Dillon Gabriel (QB31)
RBs to Move: RJ Harvey (RB3), Bhayshul Tuten (RB5), Mario Anderson (RB7), Kyle Monangai (RB12), Dean Connors (RB14), DJ Giddens (RB17), Darius Taylor (RB19), Anthony Tyus (RB22), Tahj Brooks (RB23)
WRs to Move: Nick Nash (WR1), Tre Harris (WR2), Tai Felton (WR3), Brashard Smith (WR7), Dante Wright (WR10), Kyle Williams (WR11), Josh Kelly (WR12), Brennan Presley (WR13), Xzavier Henderson (WR14), Luke Grimm (WR18), KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR21), Pat Bryant (WR27)
TEs to Move: Honestly, any you can get value for!
Now, if you really love some of these players and think they have an NFL future, don’t move them. I happen to think you are safe. I don’t see an NFL upside, and some may come back in 2025, so maybe you want to stay somewhat built for the next season. These are just players I see value in, and I would be moving for supplemental picks, freshmen, or NFL vets.
Every Champion Was Once a Contender That Refused to Give Up
You step back and check out your team, thinking, “Man, I’ve got a chance still.” I’m in that boat on a few teams where I am scoring well but getting a bad bounce. Plus, I hate giving up, especially too early. Tack on a few more Ls, and I will be singing a different song!
All those players I listed above are now your targets. I’d be willing to give freshmen and supplemental picks first and definitely start with lower offers. When I offer trades, I always aim to get it accepted as quickly as possible, but with college-only production, I tend to go lower and work my way up.
For instance, I’m not coming in hot and offering Micah Hudson or a second-round supplemental for a player like Monangai or Wright. Truth be told, I may come up to that point but don’t start there. The owner is scooping water out of a sinking ship. They are likely to take a bucket and a mop. You don’t have to offer an industrial-size Wet-Vac and twenty lifeboats. Start out with a supplemental fifth. Maybe a freshman like Kameron Davis or Johann Cardenas, someone with a little buzz.
Here’s where I come up with a warning: go slowly and be cautious. I also say to start low because your chances of making the playoffs are still not great. Don’t go mortgaging the farm to finish 5-6 and miss the playoffs. Then you are stuck with those assets – unless you turn around and trade them in three weeks – but you will likely lose value.
I caution against this because I have done it. I traded many assets to get college production and missed the playoffs, which set me back years.
What if I’m 5-0 or 4-1?
What do you need me for?
Alright, I will look more at strategies for the teams winning and stuck in the middle next week, but I wanted to keep this concise and readable for my fans. You will be looking to inquire about those players above and not be afraid to offer more for them! If I’m winning, I smell the blood in the water, and I want to attack. I also don’t want anyone else to scoop players up and challenge me.
Week 6 Preview
Key Teams on Bye: BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Illinois, Kansas St., Kentucky, Liberty, LSU, Maryland, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico, North Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rice, South Florida, Texas, Utah, Washington St., Western Kentucky
Deadline to Set Auto-Substitutions: Thursday @ 7:00 EST
Thursday and Friday have fantasy-relevant games but make no mistake, Saturday is where the action is this week.
Missouri plays at Texas A&M in the week’s only ranked vs. ranked game. Iowa will test Ohio State, and it will be interesting to see how the Buckeyes handle a more formidable defense. Ole Miss plays at South Carolina, and it’s a good test to see how the Rebels rebound from the loss to Kentucky.
Michigan plays at Washington in a College Championship Game rematch, but both teams are drastically different from last season. It’s still an excellent test for both teams, but Washington will likely lose.
The NFL Beat
The uncertainty and inconsistency rule in fantasy, particularly on the NFL side this year. I sat D’Andre Swift after starting him the previous three games. He accumulated 165 total yards and scored once. Derrick Henry fell in drafts and was a monster in Week 4, rushing for 199 yards and scoring twice (once via reception).
Justin Fields threw for 300 yards and had three total TDs. Jared Goff was perfect in leading the Lions to a rare win versus the Seahawks. Everyone had Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks as the WR2 and WR3 on the week, right?
It’s enough to make you throw your hands in the air and give up. I’ve heard that in many of my leagues, the reduced scoring and frustration with performances affect everyone.
For waiver advice, check out this article. I’m not here for your stinkin’ waivers. Let’s dig into strategy.
My Team Just…. Sucks
With the NFL, we have a little more time; 0-4 isn’t necessarily a death sentence. But you know why you are 0-4; if you don’t see an end in sight, it’s time to make some changes.
NCAA and NFL Teams Stink
This is the worst situation to have in Campus2Canton leagues. A bleak outlook for both leagues is tough, but it gives you many trading options. You will need a game plan. Trading for picks or youth has to have a reason, and just trading all willy-nilly will not suffice.
Your top targets will be players coming into the NFL from the NCAA. They tend to have value but also can be moved by teams in contention. A player like Quinn Ewers, Nick Singleton, or Luther Burden may not be performing as well for college teams and be expendable for teams in contention on the college side. They are essentially trading assets for a first-round rookie pick.
Get rid of NFL veterans and aim for young NFL players or college guys who may be coming into the NFL next season. I am shipping out Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Mike Evans. You need to replenish your pipeline.
Supplemental college picks are good, too; you want to get freshmen next season to help your team. Move the college guys I specified in the NCAA Beat. But keep in mind that when both teams are bad, we are looking for players who can help down the road. You want to stock both sides with assets that can develop and gain value.
NFL Bad, NCAA Good
The strategy shifts when your NFL stinks, but you are still competing on the college side. You still want to ship out those NFL veterans, but the options open up some. Getting the NCAA guys coming into the NFL soon isn’t quite as critical.
Yet, if you have players like Ewers, Devin Neal, or Burden, you want to keep them. It’s important to keep the pipeline to the NFL stocked, and if you can get some via trades, that’s still an optimal strategy.
The veterans can be used to get college production inexpensively if the targeted trade partner needs NFL help. Your optimal trade partner will be the guy in the opposite boat. Someone contending on the NFL side but not the NCAA side will likely move several college-producing assets like Felton and Monangai for a player like Kamara. You should be able to get a college supplemental on top of that if you angle for one.
Something to Think About
In most C2C leagues, the NFL winnings are more than the NCAA winnings. The NCAA cash prize is nothing to scoff at and is typically enough to fund your league fees for some time. Optimally, you want a league where both sides pay the same; it helps with strategy.
But if the NFL pays more, your goal is to keep your NFL side stocked and the pipeline full from the NCAA to the NFL. That’s your goal if both leagues pay the same, too, but it feels more applicable if the NFL prize is higher.
Every trade, every move you make, should be to keep the pipeline stocked. Even a trade for a supplemental pick is, in the end, a trade to keep your NCAA and NFL team full of players heading from one to the other.
Target early supplemental picks, where you can get the incoming college players with chances to impact both sides. Later supplemental picks are usually college production picks.
And don’t fall for a common trap: owners like to dangle NFL rookie picks in trades, but in most C2C leagues, they have little value. I’d rather have a second-round supplemental pick than a late rookie pick. An early rookie pick has some value; players always fall through the cracks. But I’m likely not interested if it’s not guaranteed to be one of the first four or five rookie picks.
I’m Winning!
Once again, don’t ask me!
Next week, I will discuss winning teams and teams stuck in the middle. I wanted to focus first on your struggling teams, as they are likely the ones you are most worried about!
Week 5 Preview
Byes: Detroit Lions, LA Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans
It’s always so much fun to plan lineups around byes, and I miss the days when entire divisions were on bye. They are spread out well this year, but that ultimately will affect us in the fantasy playoffs. Thank you, NFL!
Tampa Bay faces off at Atlanta on Thursday; it’s one of the better games of the week and has massive fantasy implications. Hopefully, we get a great game!
Kay Adams’ best team in the NFL, Baltimore, heads to the Queen City to take on the Bengals in a game that almost feels like Who Dey must win. Buffalo plays at Houston, and the Bills are hoping to rebound after getting dragged by the Ravens last week.
New Orleans wraps up the week on Monday night against the Chiefs, who keep winning despite a decimated WR corps and Travis Kelce’s slowly meandering corpse on the field.
Hoping You Are Faring Better Than I!
It’s been a testing season for my NFL teams. I have several that are 4-0 or 3-1, but most of my C2C NFL teams are 1-3, and a few are 0-4. I’ve got NFL help coming up the pipeline on my worst teams and am working the trade wire for more.
My college teams are mostly doing very well, and I have far more that are 4-1 or better. I’m not complacent and am always searching for the right trade partner. Finding the right partner in C2C leagues is 75% of the work. Once you find them, working out a deal is usually easier than in traditional dynasty or redraft leagues.
Best of luck this week; thank you for reading!
