First, the Beat had to take a bye week last week, and I apologize. I had several things going on and a mini-vacation; life took a front-row seat, and I didn’t have time to properly share the information needed. It gave you a week to further assess your teams, and hopefully, you are making the moves necessary!
The NCAA Beat
This college season has been so much fun. While there have been injuries and crazy underperforming “studs,” it doesn’t feel as volatile as the NFL. If you are scrambling for college production, Jared has been covering that, and this week’s article is great.
You’ve likely made all the waiver moves you need or can by now, and your team is gearing up for playoffs. Or ready to sit on the sidelines.
Trade Offers Are Heating Up
It’s now the time to be most aggressive on the trade block, as most teams that aren’t contending are throwing in the towel. Don’t be afraid to contact the 3-5 or even 4-4 teams. They may be getting antsy, but also check out their points and overall situation. If they are scoring well and have won the last several games, a trade might be insulting and break any chance you had of getting something done.
I’ve been aggressive with some players with little to no NFL potential. These are the players I am most hot on, and they are likely in their last year or two of college.
- QBs – Bryson Daily, Chandler Morris, Jordan McCloud, Blake Horvath, and Dillon Gabriel.
- RBs – RJ Harvey, Cameron Skattebo, Bhayshul Tuten, Mario Anderson, Dean Connors, Kyle Monangai, Brashard Smith, and Tahj Brooks
- WRs – Nick Nash, Tai Felton, Ricky White, Jack Bech, Tez Johnson, Ja’Corey Brooks, Joey Hobert, Jerjuan Newton, and Jamaal Pritchett
- TEs – Harold Fannin, Tanner Koziol, Holden Willis, and Joe Royer
All these players are in the top 20 at their respective positions and hold little value for a team not in contention. Sort through the lists on Fantrax and find if anyone on the bottom five teams has any of those players. Then get those offers out before the guy ahead of you or chasing you does the same.
I’m moving freshmen, supplemental, and NFL vets like Georg Kittle—whatever I can do. I traded Alvin Kamara and George Kittle for Jalen White, Harold Fannin, and Pofele Ahlock. I probably could have even gotten more, but I am not afraid to do what it takes to win the college championship.
In the same league, I am chasing a team that’s 7-1. He unloaded a supplemental 1st and 2nd, along with Kyler Kasper and Nyckoles Harbor for Garret Nussmeier and Travis Hunter. Usually, you won’t see teams out of contention moving two players with first-round NFL potential, but it never hurts to ask!
Another trade that I recently pulled off involved sending Mike Evans and Josh Downs for Quinton Cooley, Brennan Presley, and Tanner Koziol. It beefed up my college team, and I wasn’t thrilled to move a young NFL asset like Downs, but it got the deal done. Sometimes, you have to break some eggs to make an omelet.
Gauging Value
I’m going to take a stand here and make a bold proclamation. Maybe not that bold, but at least Austin Nace hot. Gauging the value of players and picks in C2C is the hardest part of running your teams in these leagues. I will attempt to place a “value” on players and picks in these leagues. I’d be curious to hear your input!
NCAA Teams in Contention (Buying/Contending)
- CFF Producing Players with NFL Potential – 5 points (i.e., Travis Hunter, Cam Ward)
- CFF Producing Players with minimal or no NFL Potential – 4 points (McCloud, Harvey, Nash)
- College Freshman or Sophomore with Potential – 3 points (Aidan Chiles, CJ Baxter, Micah Hudson)
- College Underclassmen with several years of scoring Potential – 3 points (Avery Johnson, Makhi Hughes, Denzel Boston)
- Supplemental Picks – Early (2 points), 5th Round or Later (1 point)
NFL Asset Value (Selling/Not Contending)
- Rookie players with potential who are scoring – 10+ points (Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers)
- NFL Veterans, Top 20 Scoring – 8 points (Baker Mayfield, Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin)
- Rookies with long-term potential, not scoring – 7 points (Drake Maye, Trey Benson, Rome Odunze)
- NFL Veterans below Top 20 – 6 points (Dak Prescott, James Conner, Davante Adams)
- Depth Veterans – 5 points (Tyler Lockett, Josh Jacobs)
This isn’t a hard-fast evaluation but a loose guideline, and QBs in Superflex leagues have more value, particularly on the NFL side.
If your college team is contending and you are trying to trade, it’s a loose guideline. For instance, expect to trade a player like James Conner for a player like Travis Hunter, or a vet like Saquon Barkley should get you two CFF producers like Harvey or Nash.
If you have a rookie you want to move like Nabers, you should be able to get a haul on the NCAA side; I would expect Cam Ward or even an elite college player like Ashton Jeanty to be in the cards. Moving those rookies is tough and not a wise move in C2C, but sometimes, even smelling the championship can make a man do crazy things!
Week 9 Outlook
Key Teams on Bye: Arizona St., Army, Clemson, Florida, Georgia (Athens PD on High Alert), Iowa St., NC State, Purdue, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas St., UCLA, Western Kentucky
We’ve got some fun ones this week, and the top game for me is Notre Dame traveling to battle the Navy; it’s a fun contrast in styles and a huge test for each team. It could be a slobber knocker type of game, and it could be UGLY.
College Gameday is in Autzen, Oregon, for the Illinois vs. Oregon game. It could be a fun one, but it’s a ginormous test for Illinois. Can they prove they belong in the upper echelon of Big Ten teams?
Texas faces Vanderbilt, and the feisty Commodores will be a big test of the Longhorns’ ability to rebound. LSU travels to College Station, Texas, and faces off with the Aggies in another critical SEC test for both teams. Alabama also hosts Missouri, and the SEC standings could get some clarity after these three games.
The NFL Beat
Shoot, if you are weathering injuries, you are likely doing well and sitting pretty. I have an atrocious team; I thought it would be at the bottom of the league. It’s now won three straight, sitting at 4-3, all because I haven’t lost anyone due to injury. But is it a true contender? Not likely, if I’m being honest!
Waivers?
Unlike the NCAA side, there are still options on waivers on the NFL side. Our Deep Dives article covers most of the guys you will want to target, but more surface every day. Just today, the Browns signed Bailey Zappe in case Jameis Winston falters.
I like to monitor players trending up; it’s one of the few features that Sleeper has that I really love. It helps me monitor the ever-evolving situations that arise in the NFL. I think I am pretty plugged in, but it’s tough to catch everything!
Trade Values!
Let’s dance! I will take a stab at doing as I did above; it’s pretty much the inverse, but not exactly. Gauging the value of NFL players when you are in contention can be a little different.
NFL Asset Value (Buying/Contending)
- Rookie Players with potential who are scoring – 10+ points (Caleb Williams, Brian Thomas Jr.)
- NFL Vets, Top 10 Scorers – 9 points (Jared Goff, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp)
- NFL Vets, below Top 10 – 7 points (Deebo Samuel, Aaron Jones)
- Rookies with long-term potential but not scoring – 5 points (Roschon Johson, Ricky Pearsall)
- NFL Vets below Top 20/Depth Veterans – 4 points (Najee Harris, Jakobi Meyers, Amari Cooper)
NCAA Asset Value (Selling/Not Contending)
- CFF Producers with NFL Potential – 6 points (Sheduer Sanders, Ashton Jeanty)
- College underclassmen with NFL Potential – 5 points (Quinton Martin, Cam Coleman)
- CFF Producers with minimal or no NFL Potential – 3 points (Tuten, Bech)
- College underclassmen with scoring potential – 2 points (Brendan Sorsby, LJ Martin)
- Supplemental Picks – Early (3 points), 5th Round or Later (2 points)
Dwight, why are the values different? This is value, assuming you are the buyer. If you are in contention on the NFL side, you are the aggressor, and your needs are changing. Players you want will be on the NFL side, and NCAA production isn’t as critical.
For instance, you would be targeting Cooper Kupp, and if your NCAA team isn’t contending, you will want a freshman like Cam Coleman or supplemental picks to rebuild your college team. I am not sure anyone would sell the NFL upside guys to you, but if you can get them, why not try?
For someone like Barkley, valued at 9 points, you should expect to get a freshman and a few supplemental picks. The owner trading you is likely an NCAA contender, so his valuation will be more like the value listed in the NCAA section. However, if you aren’t contending, your valuation will be different.
Finding the middle ground will be the negotiating point. College producers with limited NFL aspirations are worth nothing to your team, and it’s best to move them before their value becomes nil.
Week 8 Outlook
No Teams on Bye!
Minnesota travels to Los Angeles to face the Rams on Thursday night in a matchup of teams going in opposite directions. But the return of Kupp could spurn a sputtering Rams offense.
There aren’t many marquee matchups this week. I will be watching Philadelphia travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals, but the matchups overall aren’t particularly inspiring.
Tampa Bay hosts the Falcons in a battle for first place in the NFL South. It could be a fun game, with offensive explosions on either side. It will depend on the Bucs’ receiver situation.
If Jayden Daniels plays, Washington hosting Chicago will be a matchup of the first and second overall picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. It’s a big test for each team, especially with Caleb Williams playing better.
Off We Go…
Another week down, and we are inching precariously close to college league playoffs. Time to make that money, y’all!
Hopefully, my trade valuations made some sense, and I am working on a more developed valuation system. It’s essentially a trade calculator for C2C, but it won’t be a true calculator. Values are far too fluid, and every situation is so different.
Good luck this week!
