We’re back at it again for another year of Tiering Up the Competition. As always, we’re looking at DraftKings and hoping to provide multiple options across the entire slate at all touchpoints. This week’s Thursday slate is tough! Usually, cheap options show themselves, but not this week. Let’s dig in..
Quarterbacks
Katin Houser ($9,700), CJ Bailey ($9,500), Brendan Sorsby ($9,300)
Houser is a guy who is going to sling it when needed, and this matchup against NC State is one where they’ll be playing from behind. This is a great game script for Houser and his wideouts, who are a talented group for the G5. The run game is unproven with many faces and none really jumping out as proven. The hope here is that Houser is relied upon heavily and is successful against a Wolfcat pass defense that ranked 93rd in pass yards allowed per game. Their 7.1 YPA in 2024 ranked 60th, so this matchup has the potential to be good, even against a P4 defense.
NC State has an implied team total of 36 points going into this matchup against East Carolina, so of course, their quarterback is in play. Bailey has definitely shown a willingness to run, hitting 10+ attempts in three of his final four games. He ran for 197 yards during that stretch, more than enough to be considered a valuable runner. The Wolfpack run game is led by Hollywood Smothers, who brings big play ability in the passing game. Pricing for this slate is all relative when you consider the affordable options and how unreliable they appear to be compared to the slate. Bailey has to be considered one of the safest quarterback plays with the high team total and overall total volume.
From a pure volume perspective, Sorsby is a reliable option at quarterback, but Vegas does not think the Bearcats have it in them in this opener. They’re projected to score 23.5 points on the road at Nebraska, which really hurts their outlook. Sorsby threw it 30+ times in every game but two in 2024 and added double-digit rushing attempts four times (three of which came in the final month of the season). As much of a Sorsby lover as I am, it’s hard to like him in anything but tournaments considering the matchup and implied team total.
Cam Fancher ($8,300), Billy Edwards Jr. ($8,000)
It’s not a great feeling to recommend Fancher, but this slate definitely warrants the risk. The matchup is great against Jacksonville State, and Scott Frost has done a good job of production at the quarterback position. As much as Fancher is a bad quarterback, he can be valuable for us in fantasy. He ran 15 times in three of his final four games at FAU, leading to 20+ fantasy points in each of those games.
I feel even worse discussing Edwards, but this is what the pricing has forced me to do. The matchup is great against a MAC team, and their implied team total is 28.5. He’s shown to be able to run the ball and could easily be a vulture in the red zone. Edwards isn’t going to light it up through the air, but if he can throw for two touchdowns while adding one on the ground (or 40+ yards), then it’s a good day.
Dylan Raiola ($7,500), DeQuan Finn ($7,000), Kaden Anderson ($6,800)
Oh man, what a group of guys that are cheap. Raiola is the most talented of the bunch but is a non-runner. If you think he can throw for 300 and three touchdowns, then this price tag is a steal. Cincinnati isn’t a great team, and I love their receivers, so it’s certainly possible.
Finn was once a MAC star and now returns to go out on a high note. I’m not sure that Wisconsin on the road is the matchup we want to play him at, but he has elite legs, and the price is forcing me into considering him.
Kaden Anderson has a great matchup at Akron, but he’s a guy who routinely lived in the 100-200 passing yard range in 2024. He can run it a little, so maybe he does just enough on the ground and owns the touchdown equity in this matchup? Wyoming’s 28.75 implied team total is among the best on the slate.
Running Backs
Darius Taylor ($9,000), Emmett Johnson ($7,500), Hollywood Smothers ($7,000)
Taylor is a walking fantasy point, giving us value in the air and on the ground. The matchup is ripe, and with a new quarterback, we should see plenty of rushing in this one. There is a little bit of “blowout” concern as they’re almost three-touchdown favorites, and the running back room is quality. In last year’s similar early matchup, he had 18 touches for over 100 yards. You’ll want more than that for this price. I like him this week, but don’t love him due to needing to save up to spend at quarterback.
Johnson is going to see heavy usage for Nebraska, and with a good game script, it’s likely to be a close matchup all week long; he may be the top play of the slate. He saw 4+ targets in six of his final seven games last season, with a high of seven. Johnson’s involvement in the offense is going to be high.
Smothers, on the other hand, is a likely RBBC candidate based on what we’ve seen in recent years. He’s a highly dynamic player with Taylor-like abilities on the ground and through the air. I like him because of the pass game usage and the high implied team total. I’d be slightly worried that his touches are closer to 15 than they are to 20, though.
Tawee Walker ($5,900), Dilin Jones ($5,700)
Walker is playable this week, but he’s tough to get excited about. A Bearcats RB1 could see 50% of usage easily, but we saw him struggle to be efficient with this kind of workload at Wisconsin last season. It doesn’t help that Sorsby is a threat to score on the ground. I think you should consider him in tournaments, but steer clear otherwise.
On the other hand, Jones is an excellent option against Miami (OH) on Thursday. He was listed as the starter without an OR designation, meaning we could see him go off in a great matchup. He’s impressed all offseason, and the price is just right. I’d consider him in all formats.
Sam Scott ($5,200), London Montgomery ($5,100), Parker Jenkins ($5,000), Marlon Gunn Jr. ($4,500)
Options really are bleak, but I do think Scott as a likely starting running back against Akron is worth a look. He had some really nice games throughout 2024 and ended with 4.7 yards per carry. Did I say they play against Akron? They play against Akron.
The depth chart for East Carolina gives us a full-on OR at the running back position, so I think all three are worthless here. If we did get more clarity on the situation, I’d be interested in the starter in tournaments. The system is typically positive, and I think all 3 have some talent.
Wide Receivers
Dane Key ($7,800), Anthony Smith ($7,400), Yannick Smith ($7,200), Jacory Barney Jr. ($6,400)
With Dana Holgorsen as offensive coordinator, the top receiver role at Nebraska is very intriguing to us in fantasy. I believe it’ll be Key but if it’s Barney that’s fine too. Both are in play in tournaments with 8-12 target potential. Both have at least flashed in college with Key being a big play guy for Kentucky for three seasons. If Johnson doesn’t go off against Cincinnati then you’d have to think that one of these Cornhuskers receivers has a big game.
Anthony and Yannick Smith are in play thanks to an ECU offense that will be forced to sling it in a high scoring affair against NC State. The game script will be very positive for the Pirates and Katin Houser is a more than capable quarterback in this matchup. Anthony Smith led the team in target share with 20% last season, so he’ll be my top choice in Week 1 but Yannick has many fans and 17-18% of target share as a floor in this matchup.
John Michael Gyllenborg ($6,500), Justin Joly ($6,300)
Tight ends are typically a no no but with the weirdness of this slate and both of these guys being big play options, I can be in at least to a small degree. Joly has a chance at being the top target for the Wolfpack while Gyllenborg is probably the favorite to hold that title for Wyoming against Akron. Both matchups are positive and Vegas believes in both of their offenses to start the season.
Cyrus Allen ($5,300), Jeff Caldwell ($5,700), Javon Tracy ($4,500)
Who do you think the receiver one for Cincinnati will be in 2025? Guess right and you’re looking at 100+ targets which is why I think Cincinnati in this game script is a good team to throw a dart at for their receiver group. Allen is the smaller more slot type while Caldwell is the taller X receiver in the offense. I’d lean Caldwell but Allen is the guy that impressed all fall camp.
Tracy has a shot at being the WR1 for Minnesota that will also provide 100+ targets more likely than not. He’s fighting off Le’Meke Brockington for that role, so it’s certainly not a guarantee that it’ll be Tracy. He provides some floor and has himself a great matchup against a MAC squad.
