The Year 1 Zero Report identifies highly recruited freshmen who may not post a traditional breakout season but still show early signs of future fantasy success. Rather than focusing solely on dominator rating or big freshman year production, the report tracks eight attainable production thresholds across receiving, rushing, scrimmage touches, and return production.
The idea is simple: if a player is talented enough to earn meaningful opportunities as a true freshman, even in a crowded depth chart, that early involvement can signal future development. Each week, we’ll track which freshmen have reached these benchmarks, which players are approaching them, and which prospects are emerging as potential sophomore breakout candidates.
Here’s an introduction to the Year 1 Zero Theory and the data behind the thresholds.
Jalen Lott, WR, Oregon
Lott continues to trend in the right direction, finishing Week 10 against Ohio State with 2 receptions for 21 yards. He now has 9 receptions for 111 yards (12.3 YPC), clearing the 100-yard receiving threshold and sitting one reception short of the benchmark. He’s averaging 1.28 YPRR with a 9.5 aDOT and 3.4 YAC.
Lott’s playing time remains encouraging, logging 53% of offensive snaps in Week 10 and exceeding 50% in every game this season. He’s also showing more versatility in his deployment, working both on the boundary and in the slot. He lined up in the slot on 30% of his snaps against Ohio State, an encouraging development that could expand his opportunities and create more favorable matchups.
Trez Davis, WR, Washington
Davis played just four snaps against Penn State, his second-lowest snap total of the season, further highlighting his limited role in the Washington offense. He has now reached the 10-scrimmage-touch Y1Z threshold but remains one receiving yard short of 100.
Through Week 10, Davis has 9 receptions for 99 yards, averaging 11.0 YPC with a 1.68 YPRR, 10.1 aDOT and 5.6 YAC. His production efficiency has been respectable, but the lack of consistent playing time remains a concern.
Other notable performances
Chase Campbell, WR, Texas Tech
Campbell delivered his best performance of the season in Week 10 against West Virginia, catching 2 for 56 yards (28.0 YPC), including a 43-yard reception. He now has 5 receptions for 81 yards, 16.2 YPC, on the season. Campbell also posted a season-high 60% snap share, an encouraging sign of increased involvement. He’s averaging 2.45 YPRR with a 16.9 aDOT and 5.2 YAC, showing he can generate production downfield.
The bigger development is the opportunity created by Coy Eakin’s broken hand, which is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Campbell stepped into Eakin’s slot role during the game, potentially opening the door for increased playing time.
Campbell has also drawn positive reviews from the coaching staff for his maturity, playbook command, and ability to contribute as a true freshman. This is a name worth monitoring closely, particularly if the increased snap share translates into consistent targets and production.
Travis Johnson, WR, Michigan
Johnson took a significant step forward in Week 10, earning his first career start against Michigan State and recording a season-best 3 receptions for 38 yards, 12.7 YPC on 5 targets. He now has 5 receptions for 59 yards. Johnson played 60.7% of the offensive snaps and commanded a 22.2% target share in Week 10, suggesting increased involvement.
This season, he’s averaging 11.8 YPC, 0.86 YPRR, 17.3 aDOT, and 1.2 YAC. Maize n Brew identified him as one of the few offensive bright spots in Michigan’s 15–6 loss, a game in which the Wolverines managed just 192 total yards. Johnson’s production is particularly notable given the offense’s struggles. His first start, increased snap share, and target involvement make him a freshman worth monitoring for Y1Z purposes.
Cederian Morgan, WR, Alabama
Morgan recorded his second receiving touchdown of the season in Week 10 against LSU, hauling in a 25-yard touchdown from Keelon Russell. He finished with 1 reception for 25 yards on 2 targets, bringing his season totals to 2 receptions for 46 yards, 23.0 YPC, and 2 touchdowns. Morgan played just four offensive snaps in Week 10, highlighting how limited his current role remains. On the season, he’s averaging 2.09 YPRR with a 19.5 aDOT and 3.5 YAC.
Morgan’s touchdown against LSU has generated discussion about whether Alabama should increase his involvement, particularly in the red zone. He offers a different physical profile than Alabama’s other primary receivers. Ryan Coleman-Williams has praised his hands, describing him as a player who can make catches in traffic.
Alabama’s November 21 matchup against Chattanooga could be Morgan’s best remaining chance to push toward Y1Z qualification. With such limited playing time, the nonconference matchup against an FCS opponent could provide an opportunity for additional snaps, targets, and potentially a few more explosive plays.
