Recently, I “live” blogged the recent Campus2Canton auction between the C2C crew and our NIL members. I kept track of the first week as we went with some thoughts, and now that we’re almost through the auction – these are the thought processes that went into my draft strategy. I kept it to the early days as that informed the rest of my draft strategy. This is the first auction I’ve done for C2C, so this will be interesting.
Important format notes that informed my strategy:
- There are 24 teams, and the college side is a single copy. The NFL side is two copies.
- The $2000 budget rolls into the season for FAAB.
- The starting lineup requires two (and a third SF spot) quarterbacks
- The requirements are 2TE, AND there’s a TE Premium component. It makes the position incredibly valuable.
Campus2Canton auctions are an entirely new format for most, so I’ll detail my approach. To be fair and honest – I have no idea if this approach is close to right, but, at minimum, I’ll give the logic behind my picks/bids.
First, I think targeting quarterbacks is incredibly important. I have no doubt we see the top guys go for big money, but the secondary, CFF-only guys are going to be valuable. We’re starting three each week in this format. It’s very important to address this early.
EARLY TIGHT END. I’m for this strategy in regular leagues, but with 2TE and premium, they are the single most valuable position in this league. Getting a top option has to be the number one priority.
Finally, I’m not even sure I want to spend everything. There’s a roll-over here, and if I neglect the devy position to an extent, the 2023 class can prove fruitful. Still undecided about how I feel about this approach.
The starting starting for this league (50 man rosters):
- 2RB (0.5 PPR)
- 2WR (1.0 PPR)
- 2TE (1.5 PPR)
6/25/22 10 PM
The auction kicked off this morning, and everyone is throwing big-time money around. My goal, as always, is to get an elite tight-end option. I have Brock Bowers at $262 currently, which in this setting is a STEAL.
I just placed a huge bid on TreVeyon Henderson. $550+ to get him. Bijan Robinson is already over $700 meaning this number converges, and I likely have to bow out. Having one of the two is a massive advantage. I actually prefer Henderson.
6/26/2022 10 AM
And not anymore. Thirty seconds left, and someone ups the bid on Bowers. Tough scene. I had him up to $281. I’m mad online.
6/26/2022 4 PM
I just placed a $301 bid on Bowers. Start 2TE makes me think this is still very reasonable.
Michael Trigg and Michael Mayer are both in the $270+ respectively, which is still cheap. Bowers, again in this format, is more valuable to me because the pot is split evenly between the NFL and the NCAA side. Two years of Bowers on the CFF side > one year of Mayer – especially with how bad college TE scoring is. Trigg is just riskier than Bowers IMO. I’ve considered bidding on another, but $30% of my budget tied to TEs feels gross (although maybe the smart play?) If I don’t – I’m targeting Joshua Simon later.
Elsewhere – QB should be valued highly, and it is. All of the “big 3” are currently over $610, and I expect to close to $650. 33% of the budget on a QB. Not crazy. Quinn Ewers was already gone at $500. Seemed pricey for him.
PS – I’m enjoying the intense battle for Bryce Young between Brandon (@Ednabeastmode) and David (@SolvingFootball).
Garrett Shrader is out there under $60. That’s not a bad value at all. Thinking about bidding on him. A top 24 season from him is a QB1 finish in this format – especially when you can start three. Sheesh. The only issue – I have no idea what the top CFF QBs will go for. We have no baseline right now.
Deuce Vaughn will be an interesting player. He was bid up quickly to $150. I have a tough time evaluating him in this format. RBs having 0.5PPR vs. 1.0 makes them slightly less valuable. You’re basically saying he’s an elite fantasy option (probably true).
6/26/2022 10 PM
Bijan went at $799. Wowzers. All for aggressiveness, but 40% of the budget on one player in a start 12 / 24 team / 50 roster is AGGRESSIVE.
Receivers are being pushed to the $320-$400 range for the top 10 guys who also feels pricy. It’s a start two league, not three. Starting the same number of WRs as TEs makes me feel like there’s a discrepancy in value right now. Hopefully, that continues later too.
A question I’ve been pondering – what’s worth more?
- Jaydon Blue + Nick Singleton or TreVeyon Henderson
- Jaydon Blue+TreVonte’ Citizen+Branson Robinson OR TreVeyon Henderson
That’s the strategy going into this auction right now.
As I figured, TreVeyon is going to end up close to Bijan. At $700 now with the potential to go over. Still, a pricy gamble for an elite asset.
All the tight ends have been bid up – maybe folks are wising up. I want to get one under $330ish, but we’ll see.
Something worth considering here is that there’s a “full” rookie draft each year basically. It’s a dual copy on the NFL side. Makes the high-end “devy” only guys worth slightly less and CFF only guys more. Nobody is factoring this in except one or two teams.
Am I a sucker? Bid up Bowers to $325. My guesstimate is that anything below $400 is probably plus value. Mayer and Trigg are both close to $300.
Jaxon Dart has to be a scary value in this draft. He’s at $342 right now, which is way too rich for me. Even if you like him, that bakes in little risk.
6/27/22 10 AM
Brock Bowers at $323. Check. Mayer over $300, and Trigg went for $296. All three end up as values.
I nominated Grayson McCall and Kendre Miller. I know each has fans in this draft, and I have no interest in either. Money’s on Brandon (@ednabeastmode) nabbing one.
Deuce Vaughn went for $245. Pricey.
Lew Nichols and Rasheen Ali are both at $230+. So that’s the going rate for an upper-tier starter. I’m going to target that second tier pretty hard. Zach Charbonnet, maybe? Chris Brooks is also on my radar there.
Dart up to $401. Damn. Again, very little insulation from risk.
Despite not being the biggest fan, I’m in on John Rhys-Plumlee. Derpy Squid (Austin) keeps antagonizing me. Three starters = JRP value. Keep it under 60ish, and I’m in.
Really want to nab Ty Simpson. $176 right now is a good price considering Cade Klubnik is $376. Probably wait to see what goes down here. As someone very pro-early QB and freshman QB precisely, this aligns with what I want to be doing.
I think the biggest mistake being made is overspending at WR. Start 2 is a total game-changer. I’m not a fan of paying up here. It’s the flattest position scoring-wise. It wouldn’t surprise me if my WRs come in under 20% of my total budget.
6/27/2022 4 PM
We have a Rasheen Ali bidding war going on. Up to $273. IMO, you have to be out at that price, but alas. Nichols is also at $258 (Ethan (@ethansauers) has both). I understand the process here in attacking the top two remaining CFF backs and cornering the market. However, both are going for more than Tank Bigsby did and potentially more than Zach Evans.
There are some excellent values out there right now:
- Jamarion Miller ($165)
- Michael Mayer ($312)
- Malik Cunningham ($152)
- Ty Simpson ($181)
Also some bad values:
- Grayson McCall ($175) – this might be spicy
- Beaux Collins ($241)
- Devin Leary ($251)
- Spencer Rattler ($258)
- Isaiah Neyor ($162)
Note: I regret not bidding on Schrader at this point. I don’t think everyone has caught up to QB valuation, but a guy like him went too cheap.
Thinking out loud: What’s more important, depth or star power? The answer is probably depth, considering the % of salary spent on high-end stars. An injury to a team overweight on 2-3 players can’t compete. The key is really having players outperform expectations and build natural depth. The positions that are easiest with: RB and WR.
Again: the starting lineup requirements are being too discounted thus far, IMO. Still toying around with it, but I think the distro of salary should be (to *win* the league):
- QB: 35%
- RB: 20%
- WR: 20%
- TE: 25%
Did I miss something on Devin Neal that he’s a $250+ player? Everyone is in on him, and that’s just a wild price point.
6/28/22 9 AM
People are wildin right now. Mid-tier going for $200 plus for no reason. It’s hard with 24 teams, but jeez, people have some restraint.
All is right in the world as Colin is the leading bidder on Jalen McMillan at $90.
Keaton Mitchell under $100 is going to be a play for me. Three years of eligibility+1200-1300 yard seasons. I’m in.
People still haven’t caught up to the QB problem yet. Overspending on Hartman/Leary types, but the Shrader/JRP discounts are *nice*. Let’s keep ’em coming.
Bummed I’m going to miss on Simpson/Weigman. Too much money.
So far, I think second-tier CFF guys are going too high while third-tier is too low.
6/28/22 11 PM
Oscar Delp going for $193?
Clay Millen $235?? I’m a Millen fan, but that’s pricy.
The teams that are waiting are going to be rewarded for CFF production especially.
An overall observation: C2C drafters are getting so much better at targeting CFF talent. Outside of the extremes, they know who to target. Glad we’re seeing efficiency here.
Tyler Harrell at $200. Going to need go massively outperform expectations.
Emmanuel Henderson is going to go for under $100, which seems preposterous…yet I’m not confident enough to bid on him.
6/29/22 10 AM
Going squid hunting – Chamon Matayer is about to be nominated.
Nabbing JRP earlier feels good. The wild prices at QB continue. (Tanner Mordecai/Prestone Stone/Tyler Shough all double or triple the JRP cost)
Bid up Keaton Mitchell for $100. All’s fair in love and auctions. DeWayne McBride is at $177, the discrepancy here doesn’t make sense right now.
Ethan is going HAM on CFF players. In this type of league, it makes sense.
I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m probably going to end up with Michael Penix. Odunze + McMillan both went for $75+, and Penix is currently $13. What’s the math there? He’s going to start. They get Portland State, Kent State, and Michigan St. to kick off the year. All bad to brutal pass defenses
6/29/22 4 PM
Ethan has both Stone/Mordecai but is probably going to end up spending 250+ to nab both if he does. I question the upside with 12.5% of the budget on one situation, but it’s obviously a great offense. Sam Hartman went for $212, for example. What’s more advantageous? This is similar to Shough/Morton IMO.
It looks like calamari tonight as Derpy Squid took the Matayer bait.
Jordan Addison has been on the board since Monday and is at $445. Wow.
6/31/22 11 AM
I now have four quarterbacks on my roster. Added Dequan Finn and Frank Harris overnight at $58 and $52, respectively. IMO, great values for both.
I question whether people realize this is a start-3 QB league or the impact it has. At any time, this means we’re seeing 72 starters. There are going to be some very slim pickings later. I think you need four or five guys you like. I want to add Will Rogers to this group and start Rogers-Finn-Harris-JRP. Rogers, with multiple years of eligibility, is great.
6/31/22 10 PM
I’m shocked at the low-budget teams making non-impactful moves. These aren’t moving the needle on low-money teams; I’d rather take a handful of $5 dudes instead of a guy at $30+.
Battling between some solid secondary WRs. Stefan Cobbs/Ali Jennings/Tyrese Chambers are all being bid up right now. I like all three, but Cobbs, the group, stands out. Willing to spend up.
I have more $$ than everyone. Feels good. And also bad. I think I missed out on some early devy values. I love the CFF approach I’m taking, though. Rolling over $$ might be the move.
Will Rogers down to 30 minutes left at $110. Equivalent price to Aiden O’Connell but with multiple years left. Again, the 50/50 pot split means Rogers >>. I love this if I can swing it. I can relax some on QB now, but happy to secure the group I have at 14.1% of the budget.
8/1/22 11 PM
Can’t wait to roll over a shit ton of auction momeu. Nabbing one or two of the elite QBs next year is the goal. I hadn’t planned on it, but it’s going to be the move, IMO.
I love the group I just added. Sean Tyler, Blake Watson, and Corey Crooms for $112 combined. Casual 5.6% of the budget for immediate impact guys. Tyler and Watson go for $35 each, while Jennings/Cobbs go for over $70. Different positions, but we only need to start 2WR. Hmm…
This is the first and most impactful week of the auction for strategy and bidding. It’s my intention to add more to this when the auction ends, resulting in a full picture but the beginning of the auction is by far the most important part. As of 8/7/22, this is my current team. For an auction where I’ve saved 36%of the money? That’ll play.