Ladies and Gentlemen; Boys and Girls. We’ve made it. It’s officially playoff season for college fantasy! Even if you’re in 4-team playoff league and you don’t start until next week, you’re likely playing some kind of play-in match this week! This is all to say there’s no room for error anymore! One bad week from your team and its over!
If you’re looking for help during the waiver wire, especially with so many teams having week 12 byes (how annoying is that?), then you’re in luck. Many of the players we’ve discussed in previous weeks are still widely available, so I’ll go ahead and put a blanket statement here to look at the honorable mention section of each position group. There are guys there with more value than the players we fully break down (I’ve bolded these particular players)! If you want to read full-breakdowns for them, check out some of the previous weeks’ articles!
With all that being said, let’s look at who you could be grabbing off the waiver wire to enhance your playoff runs! All players mentioned are sub-30% rostered in Fantrax CFF leagues.
Quarterbacks
Fernando Mendoza – California – Ros: 10%
Things were starting to look rough for the Cal Bears during their two-game stretch at Pitt and against NC State. In both games, starting QB Fernando Mendoza barely cleared ten fantasy points. However, Cal’s schedule has considerably lightened up in the last two weeks, and Mendoza has been the prime beneficiary. Against Oregon State and Wake Forest, the Bears put together two 40+ point performances on offense. In each game, Mendoz cracked 350+ passing yards and 2+ TDS.
One might worry about Cal’s schedule regressing back to harder matchups during these last three weeks. On that front, I have good news and some bad news. The bad news is Mendoza faces SMU during championship week. According to our numbers from C2C Winning Edge, the Mustangs rank eighth in team defensive performance.
The good news is that in the two weeks before SMU, Mendoza takes on Syracuse and Stanford. Both Syracuse and Stanford rank 80+ in Team Defensive Performance. Stanford, in particular, is in the dumpster, ranking 120th against the pass. Mendoza and this offense should be able to continue their streak of good offensive performances, making Mendoza an excellent addition for teams with quarterbacks on bye in Week 12 or if you have Dillon Gabriel on bye in Week 13.
Ethan Vasko – Coastal Carolina – Ros: 25%
I had Vasko as a waiver add earlier this year, as I was ready for him to continue the great run he was on to finish last year. Suffice it to say, between injury and overall offensive ineffectiveness, that did not materialize.
However, I’m willing to put Vasko out there as an ad for teams going into their playoff runs. Coastal Carolina recently fired Travis Trickett as their offensive coordinator due to the previously mentioned offensive ineffectiveness. Since then, This Coastal offense has been looking much better. Much of that has to do with better usage of Braydon Bennett (he’s >30% rostered, but if he’s available in your league, Bennett is a must-add), but also better execution on Vasko’s part. This past week, in particular, was Vasko’s best week, throwing for 8.3 yards per attempt and 77.8% completion. He’s also scored on the ground once in each of the last two games.
What really sells Vasko in the playoffs is his schedule. He has dates against Marshall, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State. Truly, the Sun Belt is blessed for giving us these matchups. Vasko will be a dreamland regarding his legs, as each of these three teams ranks 111th or worse in Team Defensive Performance against the Run. While Marshall’s secondary can put up a fight, Georgia Southern and Georgia State’s secondaries can also be carved up like a nice block of cheese. If you’re looking for someone to plug in to account for some unfavorable matchups over the next couple of weeks, Vasko is your guy.
Cole Snyder – Eastern Michigan – Ros: 9%
New options at QB aren’t plentiful on the waiver wire this week, but Cole Snyder at Eastern Michigan is one guy I’m willing to take a shot on. Synder has shown himself to be a solid, steady play as the season draws to a close. His last three games against Toledo, Akron, and Central Michigan have shown that he can produce no matter what level of MAC defenses are thrown against him. He has some quietly high passing volume, having hit 40+ passing attempts each of his last two games, and before that, he almost hit 40 against Central Michigan. This has allowed him to throw for 300 yards in two of his last three games.
Like many MACtion players, Snyder’s end-of-year schedule is quite appetizing for CFF players. He gets to face the likes of Ohio, Buffalo, and Western Michigan. Ohio might be a semi-tough matchup that one shouldn’t expect too much, but EMU’s offense won’t wither away before them. Those next two matchups are where Snyder could earn his keep for CFF. Buffalo and Western Michigan both rank outside the top 100 in Defensive Team Performance against the pass. Both are outside the top 80 in the same metric against the run. Eastern Michigan should have two of its best offensive performances in the final weeks of the season and Snyder will be at the center of it.
Honorable Mentions
- Parker Navarro – Ohio – 17%
- Katin Houser – East Carolina – 11%
- Colton Joseph – Old Dominion – 26%
- Owen McCown – UTSA – 27%
Running Backs
Ahmani Marshall – Appalachian State – Ros: 2%
I am ashamed. Why am I ashamed, you ask? Because I completely missed that for the last four weeks, an Appalachian State RB has hit 18+ touches and 100+ yards in each of his games, and I’m only just now noticing. I will accept my flogging and will not fail you all once again. Regardless, it’s better late than never. Meet Ahmani Marshall.
It’s been a moshpit at the running back position at App State this year. We thought the likes of Kanye Roberts might start to break away, but he’s faded greatly in the second half of the season (I would not be surprised to see him portal). A huge reason for this has been the emergence of Marshall. He has been phenomenal for the Mountaineers, consistently finding his way to somewhere between 115 and 125 yards on the ground.
Granted, many opponents he has faced, like Old Dominion and Georgia State, don’t have good rushing defenses. The great news on that front is that he still has solid matchups to finish the season, and even if they’re not great, Marshall’s volume still might carry the day. He is on bye this week before facing James Madison in Week 13. Obviously, that’s not a great combo, but if you stash him and make it to week 14, Marshall will get 20+ opportunities against Georgia Southern’s rushing defense, which ranks 119th in the country. Marshall is an epic stash and grab for the championship week if you have the room on your roster.
Keyon Mozee – Miami, OH – Ros: 2%
I’m surprised by the late-breaking workhorse RBs we’re seeing in CFF this year, but it is a welcomed development, let me tell you. One that has slipped under quite a few radars is Keyon Mozee. On the one hand, you look at Mozee, who has racked up 100+ yards in five of his last six games, and you wonder how he’s only 2% rostered.
Then you see that he only has a pair of TDs over that same range of games, and suddenly, you see how he can go unnoticed in CFF leagues. Don’t get me wrong, that’s a major issue with Mozee, but I have two rebuttals. Firstly, touchdown regression is quite real in CFF, and Mozee is a prime candidate to bounce back, given his volume and production. Secondly, he faces Kent State this week. Given how bad Kent State’s defense is, if Mozee can’t score TDs here, there is something seriously wrong with him.
On top of having the Kent State matchup this week, Mozee faces Northern Illinois and Bowling Green to finish the season. On paper, Northern Illinois is a tough matchup, but given that Jaden Nixon was able to give the Huskies issues last week, we know NIU can be beaten in the run game. After that, the Redhawks get Bowling Green, who is 93rd in the country, facing the run. If you’re looking for an RB to boost your team for a playoff run, Mozee brings some volume and consistency, and you’ll be hard-pressed to find anywhere else on the waiver wire.
Dylan Carson – Air Force – Ros: 21%
I’m going to let you guys know something. We are about to discuss this man, and he will do one of two things if you pick him up off the waiver wire. He will either be the reason you fly through the playoffs and win your championships, or he will be the reason why you knock yourself out. There will be in-between with Air Force running back and potential superback Dylan Carson.
Yeah, remember Dylan Carson? From all the way back in the pre-season when I hyped him up as a steal in all formats, especially with him having three years of eligibility? Yeah, he’s kind of blown chunks this year. Really, it’s not just him; it’s been the whole Air Force squad. It turns out it’s illegal for all three service academies to be good simultaneously. Carson has been abysmal this year. Despite being clearly one of the best backs returning from last year’s squad, Carson had only crossed the 50-yard threshold once to this point in the season. That all changed this past weekend in the Air Force’s surprise upset of Fresno State.
This past weekend, for the first time this season, the Air Force looked like what we expected it to look like. Carson led the rushing attack with a whopping 33 carries and finished with 120 yards. Obviously, the efficiency sucked, but if this holds, Carson might be the grab of the week. I don’t need to remind veteran CFF players what the Air Force superback has been able to accomplish in the past, but if you don’t know of what I speak, check out healthy Emmanuel Michel last season and the years before that. Look at Brad Roberts’ monster seasons. If this is what Air Force looks like going forward (considering it worked against Fresno State, a solid team, why wouldn’t it be?), Carson will be a must-own these next three weeks.
The schedule for Air Force in the final weeks of the season is mouth-watering to any team whose focus is running the ball. The Falcons take one Oregon State, Nevada, and San Diego State. All three of those matchups involve teams whose defensive rushing performance is inside the country’s bottom 30; in the case of Oregon State, we’re talking bottom two. You could hardly ask for a better string of games. Now, this all assumes that the Air Force’s coaching staff doesn’t pull something dumb and rethink the entire game plan. Unfortunately, I don’t trust them not to do that. So you’re taking a massive risk with Carson, but the reward could be CFF championship glory.
Honorable Mentions
- Eli Sanders – New Mexico – 21%
- Al-Jay Henderson – Buffalo – 4%
- Gerald Green – Troy – 3%
- George Pettaway – James Madison – 28%
- Amari Daniels – Texas A&M – 14% – Beneficiary of Moss injury
Wide Receivers
Dymere Miller – Rutgers – Ros: 3%
I know what some of you are thinking: “Why would I ever trust a Rutgers WR?” I say, “Fair question, but let me tell you why!” Dymere Miller arrived at Rutgers this past off-season after transferring from Monmouth University, where he caught 90 balls for 1293 yards and 9 TDs in his final year there. The staff was excited about this addition. While it has taken a while for this Rutgers passing game to get going (arguably, it’ll never really get there with Athan Kaliakmanis under center), in recent weeks, Miller has become the clear top target for the Spartans. And by clear target, he sometimes dang near their only target. He’s hit 33 targets over the last two weeks, including a monster 20-target game against USC.
You may think this unusual, but it is not unheard of for Kirk Ciarrocca, the offensive coordinator at Rutgers. During his time at Minnesota, Ciarrocca oversaw both of Tyler Johnson’s monster seasons, where he had 126 and 119 targets each season, respectively. While I don’t think Miller can get to those production levels so long as Kaliakmanis throws the ball, the volume is too difficult to ignore here, especially in PPR formats. I would love to see Miller turn more of these targets into receptions, but you can only do so much when the guy throwing you the ball probably would struggle at the FCS level.
Miller has some decent upcoming matchups. Both Maryland and Michigan State (weeks 12 and 14, respectively) are ranked outside the top 99 in defensive team performance against the pass. Illinois is a bit stingier at 69th but still weak enough that a talent like Miller could still have a nice, productive day.
Justin Lockhart – San Jose State – Ros: 12%
The next two options at receiver on the waiver wire have very similar profiles. Lots of targets, great average depth of target, and good production. They have the slight downside of being allergic to the endzone. Let’s begin with our first option, Justin Lockhart. After missing last year, many hoped for a huge bounce-back season from Lockhart. Instead, Nick Nash steals the show, and we all know how it is going. However, as the season progressed, the Spartans needed a secondary option to emerge in this passing game to take the heat off of Nash. Lockhart answered that call and has become a steady league option in the last few weeks.
The target numbers haven’t been consistent for Lockhart. He’s seen 7, 13, and 6 targets in his last three games, respectively. What has been consistent is his efficiency. He’s averaged over 23 yards a catch for three weeks straight. It’s clear that the Spartans view Lockhart as their downfield threat, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue that. As I mentioned, his production is great, ranging between 93-130 yards in each of his last three games. His problem is that despite getting long balls thrown to him, he can’t convert them into TDs for whatever reason.
Hopefully, TD regression will come Lockhart’s way in the next few weeks, especially in his juicier matchups. San Jose State faces Boise State and Stanford in weeks 12 and 14, respectively, and they ranked 87th and 120th in defensive team performance against the pass, respectively. I’d be very comfortable starting Lockhart as a flex option in either of those matchups. His matchup vs UNLV gives me some pause but you had to play him, I think you’ll still be alright especially in a PPR format.
Chris Carpenter – UTSA – Ros: 13%
As I mentioned, our third option at WR is similar to Lockhart in that the production has been great, but the lack of TDs has held him back. Chris Carpenter has quietly become the leading target for UTSA, which is a great thing given the historic nature of that role, plus UTSA’s second-half-of-the-season offensive resurgence. In the past four games, Carpenter has seen 8+ targets in each of them, which has translated to increasing production from him. In his games against Tulsa and Memphis, Carpenter hit the century mark in yardage in both games and even managed to score a TD. Unfortunately, that is his only TD over the last four games, despite 37 targets in that stretch.
This weekend is a prime opportunity for Carpenter to have his biggest game of the season. UTSA will be taking on North Texas in a game that (I assume) will have a total in the 70s. It might be the shootout of the weekend. Carpenter will be heavily involved in this game as the current leading target and have plenty of opportunities to score. The fun doesn’t stop there, as UTSA will face Temple the week after, who is 105th in defensive team performance. In the final week of the season, UTSA will face Army, which is obviously never a fun matchup for CFF players, but by that point, all your players will be back off byes, so you may not even need Carpenter!
Honorable Mentions
- Tru Edwards – Louisiana Tech – 23%
- Kameran Shanks – UAB – 18%
- Jordan Napier – SDSU – 5%
- Ryan Davis – New Mexico – 6%
- Matt Sykes – Rice – 8%
Tight Ends
Joshua Simon – South Carolina – Ros: 16%
We’re back to recommending TEs this week after taking a small break from them in this column’s last couple of renditions. I probably should have recommended Joshua Simon out of South Carolina last week, but here we are!
Simon has been seeing some consistent volume in his last three games, with three to five targets thrown his way in each. Even more importantly, Simon has become a key target for LaNorris Sellers in the red zone. Simon has seen four TDs in his last three games.
One can worry about TD regression with TEs, but sometimes guys like Simon and Cooper Mathers out of Washington State have clear roles they play for their QBs, which makes them more likely to score. If you’re someone headed into the playoffs and you haven’t locked down who your reliable weekly TE will be, guys who see plenty of endzone targets are a good place to put your bets.
Honorable Mentions
- Houston Thomas – UTSA – 8%
- John Michael Gyllenborg – Wyoming – 27%
- Cooper Mathers – Washington State – 3%
