Week 4 has finished up, and very quickly, I’m having to start shifting my mindset for these waiver wire articles and segments. Usually, the first half of the season is finding those rest-of-season players that will pay huge dividends the rest of the way.
Then, around Week 7, those kinds of players tend to dry up as offenses figure out their identities and players’ roles within them are solidified. This forces me to shift from identifying long-term values for the rest of the season to a more short-term analysis, where I have to identify good upcoming matchups in the next three weeks to try to take advantage of. As I mentioned, that usually occurs around Week 7 in most seasons. This year, I’m feeling the pressure to start doing that now, a whole three weeks early.
When I look at the options on the waiver wire, I do not see as many long-term values as I usually find. That’s, at least, if I want to keep to my sub-30% rostership threshold. On one hand, this is a good thing, as it means the CFF community has improved as a group, and content creators like myself are doing our jobs well! On the other hand, it means everything is getting harder! But we all like a challenge here, so let’s meet it head-on!
With all that being said, let’s look at who you could be grabbing off the waiver wire to either continue your dominance or turn your season around! All players mentioned are sub-30% rostered in Fantrax CFF leagues.
Quarterbacks
I mentioned in the opening that I don’t think there are a lot of long-term prospects on the waiver wire, at least not to the degree we’ve been seeing the last few weeks. The one position that bucks the trend for this week is quarterbacks. If you’ve been struggling to get quarterback right, there are a few very low-rostered QBs you can try to acquire this week which, if their trends stick, could be massive down the road.
Blake Horvath – Navy- Ros: 8%
If you guys have followed me for a long time, you know I’m not a massive fan of recommending triple-option pieces. The few times I have been bold enough to do so, I’ve been burned (looking at you, John Lee Eldridge and Dylan Carson). So you can imagine that every fiber of my being is telling me not to recommend a triple option QB in Blake Horvath, but to ignore what Horvath has done so far would be CFF malpractice.
Horvath is a true out-of-nowhere CFF breakout, drafted in 0% of leagues. It’s hard to blame CFF players for avoiding him. Navy’s quarterback situation in 2023 was an absolute mess, with three different QBs getting run at various points. Even if you combined the three’s production into one player, you were still looking at a QB90ish at best for CFF.
However, over the last few weeks, Horvath is showing a nuclear side we didn’t know was possible with the mid-shipmen this year. Against Temple, Horvath dropped 112 yards and a touchdown through the air, with 122 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. That totaled 38.68 F{TS in 4-PT passing formats, which was already great. Then he followed it up with his performance against Memphis this past week, which can only be described as nuclear. He finished the day with 192 passing yards (borderline illegal for a triple option QB) and 2 TDs, plus a whopping 211 yards and 4 TDs on the ground.
The Midshipmen clearly have their guy moving forward, and based on what we’ve seen so far this year, he could go absolutely wild, harkening back to the days of Malcolm Perry. The schedule for Navy is very manageable over the next four weeks, with trips to UAB and Air Force, a bye, and then Charlotte. While I’m still skeptical that Navy can provide a week-to-week started in CFF, if you’re looking for a QB to give your team a boost, it is hard to ignore one who is currently on pace for 1300+ rushing yards and 20+ TDs on the ground.
Alonza Barnett III – James Madison – Ros: 5%
Will the real James Madison please stand up? The Dukes, coming off a 13-6 struggle win vs Gardner-Webb, completely caught everyone off guard this past Saturday with a dominant win over North Carolina. The total for this game was set at 48.5 points. James Madison had that by themselves before halftime. Granted, there were some wacky things like a blocked punt TD, a pick-six, and a successful onside kick, which led to another TD, but none of that should cover up just how on fire the Duke’s offense was.
Barnett put on a show, throwing the ball 34 times for 388 yards, five touchdowns, and 99 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Granted, much of this can be attributed to a Tarheel defense that was overwhelmed and flabbergasted, but the skillset and usage point to an extremely useful CFF asset, so long as the offense remains consistent week to week.
If one ignores the Gardner-Webb game (seriously, what the hell was that game?), we see a quarterback who has rushed for 80+ yards in each of his two starts. We know head coach Bob Chesney is not afraid to keep running his quarterback (See: Matthew Sluka at Holy Cross), so there’s no reason to believe this will stop anytime soon.
The Dukes’ upcoming schedule is a CFF players’ dream, with Ball State (who’s been atrocious against the run this year), UL Monroe (they just stink), and Coastal Carolina all on deck. Those all feel like games in which Barnett should be locked into 25+ FPTS. As I’ve hinted at, the big hope is their game against Gardner-Webb was simply a fluke and not a sign of offensive inconsistency down the road.
Tyler Huff – Jacksonville State – Ros: 6%
Dual-threat QB? Rich Rodriguez? Plays in the CUSA? Sign me the hell up! 2023 for the Gamecocks was a bit of a mess at quarterback, with Zion Webb and Logan Smothers constantly trading in and out due to benching and injury. One thing was made clear, tho, and that is Rodriguez loves himself a dual threat option at quarterback in this offense. Webb and Smothers combined for 1,030 yards on the ground last year. Now, Rodriguez has stability as a full-time quarterback starter with Presbyterian transfer Tyler Huff.
Huff has been consistent the last few weeks, seeing 70+ rushing yards in each of his last three matchups. Even better, that consistency has shown through against opponents of various difficulties, including a tough on-the-road game against Louisville. As the Gamecocks started to play against Group of 5 competition, Huff seemed to have found his groove in the passing game and his rushing.
Against EMU and Southern Miss, Huff saw 230+ passing yards in both games and probably would have had more against Southern Miss had the game not turned into a blowout. Jacksonville State’s next three opponents are Kennesaw State, New Mexico State, and MTSU. If that stretch for a consistent dual-threat QB doesn’t excite you as a CFF player, I’m not sure what will!
Honorable Mentions
- Emmett Brown, San Jose State – 13%
- Marcel Reed, Texas A&M – 9%
Running Backs
Among running backs, I see three clear options I’m looking at that are sub-30% rostership. We’ll discuss those three here, but I’d also like to point out a few guys still hovering around in the 30-40% rostership range, which are more valuable than even the guys I’ll discuss below. Some are players I’ve mentioned before, but two of them are players I could have sworn were more rostered than they are. Check out the honorable mentions for some of those plays, and double-check they aren’t floating around on your waivers this week.
Kalel Mullings – Michigan – Ros: 24%
It shouldn’t be controversial anymore to say Donovan Edwards has been a bust for CFF for what feels like the upteenth year in a row. Kalel Mullings has cleared Edwards in almost every category except for receiving work. Let’s be honest: when your two options are QB, Davis Warren and Alex Orji, how much does receiving work matter? What does matter is that on a team with no other options than running the ball, Mullings has been a lifeline for Michigan’s season. He’s currently seeing 8.1 yards per carry so far this year and is a clear, better fit to replace the work Blake Corum did for the Maize and Blue.
So far in the season, Mullings has 429 yards and four TDs on 53 carries. Ever since the loss against Texas, Mullings seems to have turned it up even higher. Against Arkansas State and USC, Mullings has hit 150+ yards and 2+ TDs in both games, averaging 9.75 yards per carry during the stretch. Obviously, we can’t and don’t expect that efficiency level to continue.
However, Michigan’s upcoming schedule, including Minnesota and Illinois, is chock-full of ground-and-pound rock fights in which a tough, physical back like Mullings will be relied on to a high degree. A potential 1,000-yard back is not often available this late in the season, so now’s your chance to grab on in Mullings.
Star Thomas – Duke – Ros: 7%
Before the season started, I had identified a few senior running backs on teams who typically run committees but could see a workhorse role in their final years as a “thank you” from the staff. Jacquez Moore was one of those guys and no sugar-coating it, he’s been horrendous this year. He’s only averaging 2.7 YPC and has a long run of eight yards through three games. You know who hasn’t been horrendous? New Mexico State transfer, Star Thomas. Living up to his name, Star has been a key addition to this Blue Devils offense, allowing them to have a run game to take pressure off transfer QB Malik Murphy.
While things started slow for him, Thomas has quickly earned his stripes (horns?) in this offense, going from 13 rush attempts in Week 1 to not consistently seeing 17+ in each of his last three games. He’s taken advantage of soft competition the last two weeks, rushing for 110+ plus against UConn and MTSU. That certainly leaves the question of whether he can keep that up versus ACC competition moving forward.
His one game versus Power 4 competition was against Northwestern in Week 2, and he got 17 carries for 58 yards. The good news is that we’ll quickly find out what Thomas’ value truly holds down the stretch, as his next games are against North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. If he performs consistently in that stretch, Thomas could be huge down the stretch, especially with a playoff schedule of NC State, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest.
Rahsul Faison – Utah State – Ros: 8%
We never really connect running backs and Blake Anderson’s system for CFF. Obviously, Anderson is no longer with the Aggies, but his system mostly lives, even if it is more inefficient than in previous years. Hopefully, with some stability at quarterback with Spencer Petras back, the Aggies’ offense will continue to improve as the season goes along. While the passing game sorts itself out, one saving grace of the offense has been the stepping up of running back Rahsul Faison.
Utah State took a big loss this off-season when leading returning running back Davon Booth entered the transfer portal. The Aggies were still set at running back for the most part, with Faison and Robert Briggs coming back. They were expected to split the load while the offense remained centered on the pass.
However, as mentioned before, injury at quarterback has delayed the passing game development, and even more beneficial to Faison, Robert Briggs went down with an injury in week 1. Since that time, Faison has been the clear workhorse in the backfield, going from 10.5 carries a game in the first two weeks to 23 carries a game in the last two. Faison has seen 115+ yards in both recent competitions, and if he keeps up this performance, it’s hard to see him lose this role, even if Briggs returns.
We also know this staff is not afraid of a workhorse. One only has to go back to 2022, when Calvin Tyler Jr. got 253 carries and 1,122 yards. As with any RBs in this system, the main issue for Faison will be touchdown opportunities. Tyler, in 2022, only finished the season with 8 TDs on 1,251 scrimmage yards. Faison is following a similar pattern, with only 1 TD on 406 scrimmage yards this season.
Honorable Mentions
- Fluff Bothwell, South Alabama – 33%
- Nate Noel, Missouri – 38%
- Micah Bernard, Utah – 29%
- Braedon Sloan, Ball State – 32%
Wide Receivers
I don’t like talking down my recommendations for waiver wire pickups, but I also believe it is my job to tell you the truth regarding what I see. The fact of the matter is last week was the time to pick up wide receivers if you needed help off the waiver wire. Guys like Cade McDonald, Andrew Armstrong, Luke Floriea, Devonte Ross, and more all clear the options this week by a good bit. Check out last week’s article to see if any of those options are still hanging out on the waiver wire because I would target almost all of those guys over the three below. That being said, the three below do have paths to relevancy for the rest of the season, so if there are no other options, these three may be worth looking at.
Luke Grimm – Kansas – Ros: 26%
Last season, the target split between Kansas’ top three receivers was almost dead even between Lawrence Arnold, Quentin Skinner and Luke Grimm. All three of those guys returned for 2024, so there wasn’t much expectation of things being different. However, through the season’s first four games, Grimm seems to be pulling away in targets, getting 34 so far, while Arnold and Skinner have 21 and 18, respectively. So what’s going on? My theory is that the loss of Mason Fairchild has opened the door for Kansas to be more reliant on Grimm over the middle, as Trevor Kardell and Jared Casey are certainly downgrades compared to Fairchild.
So, what does that mean moving forward for Grimm’s CFF prospects? I think we’re looking at a solid floor play from now on. Grimm had a weird game against UNLV where he only caught three balls for six yards. Otherwise, he’s been very consistent for the Jayhawks. He’s seen 8+ targets in all four games and in two of them, he’s hit 100+ yards and a TD.
If you’re in a PPR league, he’s all the more interesting. Kansas’ offense still has a lot to figure out under new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, so I worry their offensive stagnation will hurt Grimm at times. However, their upcoming schedule against TCU, Arizona State, and Houston all open opportunities for offensive showcases, in which Grimm should be penciled in for a touchdown in each of those games.
Dante Wright – Temple – Ros: 23%
I labeled Dante Wright as a waiver wire trap a few weeks ago on that week’s episode of Chasing the Natty. While I won’t say I was wrong to be skeptical at the time, Wright has shown he is a case of being the best player on a bad team, and that is his legitimate path to CFF production week in and week out. After hitting 100 yards once in all of 2023, Wright is now on his third straight game of 99+ receiving yards and a touchdown in each competition.
Wright has seen 10+ targets in two of his last three competitions. While I would have loved to see more than the four targets he got last week in the competition vs. Utah State. The game was a blowout, and he’d certainly done more than enough with the opportunities he did get, including a 91-yard TD. The good news for Temple is that while I still think they’re a bad team overall, their upcoming schedule at least allows for scoring opportunities. Their next three games are Army, UConn, and Tulsa. There’s no reason why Wright can’t have similar performances in those games compared to what he’s done in the last three.
Isaiah Neyor – Nebraska – Ros: 27%
If you can’t tell, the options at the receiver are drying up quickly here. Typically, I would not suggest a receiver who has only 23 targets through four games to this point in the season, but I’m playing the hand I’m dealt with here. As Dylan Raiola settles into the starting QB job at Nebraska, he’s still developing chemistry with his top receiving options.
Objectively, there has not been a better connection on this team than the one with Neyor. Neyor has been a deep-threat option going back to his days at Wyoming. Now, finally healthy again, he’s proving to be just that for Railola. So far, in 2024, Neyor has an average depth of target (ADOT) of 16.0, the highest among the starting receivers for Nebraska. This helps him with his excellent average of 17.3 yards per catch. He currently leads the Cornhusker receivers with 277 yards and 4 TDs through four games.
While his target share isn’t much higher than that of fellow outside receiver Jahmal Banks, it’s clear to everyone, including Raiola and the Nebraska staff, that this offense gets more out of Neyor. Expect Neyor’s targets per game to rise and for him to become a potential go-to receiver for one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. It also helps that Nebraska’s upcoming schedule includes Purdue, Rutgers, and Indiana—all manageable games for Neyor to perform in.
Honorable Mentions
- Oran Singleton, Eastern Michigan – 2%
- Ja’Corey Brooks, Louisville – 38%
Tight Ends
Anthony Torres – Toledo – Ros: 1%
Much like last week, the TE waiver market is pretty dry. The top options for this year have been pretty established, and everyone else is in the same category: “He might get me 15 points this week or get me 0; who the hell knows?”.
The target monsters at the position are gone, so the next best thing is to look for the red zone targets. Over the past four weeks, there may not have been a more consistent red zone TE than Anthony Torres of Toledo. In four games, Torres has found the endzone four times. It is clear that when the Rockets are in scoring range, they’re looking for their big target, especially when they don’t have a running game to rely on.
As great as he’s been so far, there’s also the possibility of some touchdown regression coming for Torres, as he currently has four TDs on ten catches and less than 110 yards. Regardless, if you’re desperate at the TE position, I’m not sure where else you look right now.
