Quarterbacks
Pay Up
Sam Hartman, Wake Forest ($9,000) @ Duke: Hartman had a monster game this week against Army posting 457 passing yards and 6 touchdowns, including one rushing. This week Hartman gets a good matchup in Duke, who currently ranks 63rd in defensive passing success rate. Hartman has been exceptional this season beyond the Army game, averaging over 29 points per game and I expect him to be popular this week but justifiably so.
Kenny Pickett, Pitt ($8,800) @ Miami: Kenny Pickett Heisman SZN? Pickett is averaging 32.3 Draft Kings points per game this year and comes in with the 5th highest implied team total on the slate at 36 points. Miami’s pass defense is fine but won’t challenge Pickett with the level he’s playing at. Against Miami as a single-point favorite, expect Pitt to keep rolling this week.
Mid-Tier
Gerry Bohanon, Baylor ($7,200) @ Texas: Bohanon has been up and down this season as Baylor’s defense limits the high-scoring potential for games but this is a week where we could see more scoring. Texas is averaging 41 points per game and while Baylor’s defense has been very solid, they are ranked 51st in defensive success rate against the pass. Casey Thompson and the offense should put up points causing Baylor to keep up. Bohanon on the other side gets the 91st ranked pass defense in success rate and has the mobility to put up a monster game at his price. With the slate’s 7th highest implied team total and an offense ranked in the top half in pace, Bohanon is a sneaky play this week.
Value Plays
Henry Colombi, Texas Tech ($5,400) @ Oklahoma: This is a gross play but at his price, it’s not totally crazy. Oklahoma’s secondary has struggled this season due to injuries and that’s not changing this week. Colombi has struggled the last two weeks throwing for 148 and 124 yards but has two games over 300 yards and one over 266 as a starter this year. The big issue is he hasn’t scored touchdowns but this is a week for him to get right in that department against a Sooners defense ranked 110th in defensive success rate against the pass.
Running Backs
Pay Up
Jerome Ford, Cincinnati ($9,200) vs. Tulane: Jerome Ford came back down to Earth last week with the entire Cincinnati team in a close call against Navy. However, this is the week Ford bounces back and puts up another monster performance. Tulane has been terrible on defense, ranking 90th in defensive success rate against the run while giving up an explosive rush rate of 24.1% (111th). Ford should be the focal point for a Bearcats team favored by 24.5 needing a statant victory.
Breece Hall, Iowa State ($9,100) @ West Virginia: After struggling early, Breece Hall is back to the locked and loaded DFS stud we know. Prior to last week’s matchup against a great Oklahoma State rushing defense, Hall had 4 straight 100-yard games, going over 190 twice. This week he faces a Mountaineers defense whose advanced stats paint the picture of a middle-of-the-road rushing defense, ranking 60th in success rate. Hall is averaging 27 weighted opportunities per game and should see the same this week.
Mid-Tier
Mataeo Durant, Duke ($7,700) vs. Wake Forest: We just saw the Demon Deacons get embarrassed by the Army rushing game last week and Durant is looking to continue that this week. On the season, Durant is averaging 28 weighted opportunities per game and gets a struggling Wake Forest defense ranked 123rd in rushing success rate. Look for Durant to be involved in both phases of the game which makes less worried about the 17-point spread.
Abram Smith, Baylor ($7,200) @ Texas: Smith is likely too discounted this week, facing a Texas defense that ranks 85th in defensive success rate against the run and 115th in explosive rush rate allowed. Smith is currently averaging 22.6 DraftKings points with over 100 yards per contest. Baylor comes in as the favorite and should once again rely on Smith to salt away the game. At his price-point, he’s too cheap.
Value Plays
Vincent Davis, Pitt ($3,900) vs. Miami: This is slightly contingent on Israel Abanikanda ($5,200) not playing this week even though Davis could be in play regardless. Davis is currently averaging 14 weighted opportunities per game while splitting time. Miami’s defense ranks 95th in defensive success rate against the run which puts both backs in play but given Pitt is operating as the favorite, expect a good amount of both backs and if Izzy can’t go, Davis is a locked-in option.
Receivers:
Pay Up
Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest ($7,600) vs. Duke: Only $100 more than A.T. Perry, Roberson should see another strong week against a Duke defense who has been exposed by passing games all season. He has 22 targets to Perry’s 16 over the past 3 games, so give me Roberson at how close they are priced. Duke is allowing a 30.7% explosive pass rate, making Roberson the preferred stacking candidate with Sam Hartman this week.
David Bell, Purdue ($7,100) vs. Nebraska: I’m not scared of Nebraska or a down week from Bell against a very good Wisconsin secondary. Bell is averaging 10.2 targets per game and has been one of the best receivers in the country again this season. Purdue comes into this game with the 10th highest implied team total and gets a Nebraska defense ranked 92nd in passing success rate despite limiting big plays. Bell should see a massive target share again this week. He’s underpriced on this slate.
Quentin Johnston, TCU ($7,100) vs. Kansas State: Johnston has taken the next step to become one of the country’s most explosive deep threats. After a massive game last week, Johnston should continue his production against a Wildcats defense ranked 116th in passing success rate. With 19 targets in has last 3 games, Johnston is the clear alpha for TCU and is averaging 21 DraftKings points per game, including over 12 unrealized fantasy points. Expect more blowup games from Johnston.
Mid-Tier
Jadon Haselwood, Oklahoma ($6,700) vs. Texas Tech: In what could be one of the highest scoring games of the week, the Oklahoma passing offense has value in their new alpha, Jadon Haselwood. Haselwood has ascended to Caleb William’s top option with 19 targets in his last three games, 10 more than Marvin Mims ($5,900). Texas Tech ranks 72nd in defensive success rate against the pass and allows an explosive pass rate of 19.4% (80th). Haselwood is a discounted alpha this week.
Jake Bobo, Duke ($5,600) @ Wake Forest: Priced $700 less than Jalon Calhoun, Bobo is the preferred runback option in the slate’s highest game total. Bobo has been quietly solid for Duke this season, averaging over 9 targets per game and 16.7 DraftKings points. In this matchup, it’s less about the Duke offense than it is not trusting Wake Forest after getting demolished by Army last week on defense.
Value Plays
Kaylon Geiger Sr., Texas Tech ($4,800) vs. Oklahoma: I prefer Geiger to the higher-priced Ezukanma this week as their opportunities have been close over the last few games (12 targets to 14). Geiger should see action this week as Oklahoma is down their top 3 defensive backs and have ultimately struggled on the back-end all year. At a $1,600 discount off Ezukanma, I love Geiger.
Taysir Mack, Pitt ($4700), @ Miami: I don’t know if Joran Addison will play this week and if he doesn’t it makes Mack a locked-in option. Even if Addison does play, Mack has 14 targets to Addison’s 15 over their last 3 contests and he leads the team in routes run over the same period. Miami has an okay defense, ranked 57th in passing success rate but Kenny Pickett is another level right now and Mack should be the beneficiary again.
Adonai Mitchell, UGA ($3,300) @ Florida: This game total is too low in my opinion which opens up more options on the Georgia side. Of those, Mitchell is my favorite, especially given his price point. Over the last 2 weeks, he leads the team in targets and is currently the cheapest of all the Bulldogs’ starting receivers.
