The 2022 NFL Season is nearly over. We have just one more meaningful game. But the dynasty season is heating up. Soon, we’ll have Free Agency, rookie drafts, and more as we attempt to remain on top or make the moves needed to be a contender. Over the next four installments, I’ll be offering some Buy, Hold, and Sell suggestions for players. I’ll have three in each category for the four major offensive positions—QB, RB, WR, and TE. Today, I kick things off with QBs.
Buy: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
About: I’ve heard the theories that the Bears will use the No. 1 overall pick to take a quarterback. I don’t buy it. Even if they did, Fields would move somewhere, and there’s no shortage of teams that need a quarterback. It’s also hard to believe any teams out there could be as devoid of offensive talent around a quarterback as the 2022 Chicago Bears. Fields was QB6 in 2022 despite a weak offensive line and negligible receiving corps. The Bears have cap space, draft picks, and a motivation to improve. Add to that a roster that already includes Cole Kmet at tight end and Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney at receiver, and I like Fields going forward. I have him as a Top 5 dynasty QB.
Buy: Mac Jones, New England Patriots
About: This is about Superflex leagues. I don’t think Jones will ever be a consistent Top 12 option at the position, but we saw during his rookie season he can be a solid QB2. As a rookie, Jones finished as QB18. In 2022, even with Joe Judge and Matt Patricia trying to run an offense, Jones finished as QB23. Now, the Patriots are moving to improve the offense by bringing back Bill O’Brien as Offensive Coordinator. I expect things to pick up in 2023, and that’s even before considering the team could actually add some weapons. At least, I hope they will. Jones isn’t a sexy name, but he is a quality, if unspectacular, option for your QB2.
Buy: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
About: Call this a speculative add. Love was a First Round pick in 2020, and yet in three seasons, he’s started only one game. In 2022, he threw only 21 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown. So, why buy? It comes from this being a crucial off-season, one in which the Packers have to decide about Love’s fifth-year option, and there is a lot of smoke about the team wanting to cut ties with Aaron Rodgers and look toward the future. An 8-9 season in which you miss the playoffs will do that. I think that smoke is about to become fire, and I like a speculative add here. I’m not paying a lot, but he’s a player that needs to be rostered at this point.
Hold: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
About: A lot of unknowns here, but I’m holding Lamar. Will he be back in Baltimore? I think he probably will, but even if he moves on, Lamar will land a starting spot somewhere. It’s inarguably the biggest name on the potential free agent market. He’s played five seasons, and while injuries will always be a concern, his ceiling is undeniable. He is a Top 12 option that has QB1 upside in the right system. Even if the Ravens leave him without weapons, he produces QB1 numbers. Through the first 12 weeks of 2022, Lamar was QB5. I’m hanging on and waiting for him to return to action and right back into my lineup.
Hold: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
About: How things have changed. I remember when Matthew Stafford was traded, Goff felt like the throw-in for the trade. And yet, he’s flourished with a young offense in Detroit. In 2022, as the Lions caught fire and finished 9-8, just missing the playoffs, Goff was QB10. That’s a great return from a guy that always goes later in drafts. I LOVE having Goff as my QB2 on a Superflex team. The Lions are a young, ascending team, and Goff looks like a lock to produce again in 2023. Is he THE guy long-term? Probably not. But I think he has two to three more solid years in Detroit and is a great QB2 option on your dynasty squad.
Hold: Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
About: If you’re a regular reader of this column, you’re probably wondering what gives. I get it, really, I do. I’ve never been a big fan of Lance, and I’m still not sure I buy his “ceiling,” which is frequently used as a selling point. But he remains largely an unknown that was the product of an enormous draft capital investment by the 49ers. The 49ers are unlikely to pay Jimmy Garoppolo again, especially with Lance having three years left on a rookie deal. The team also has a great young prospect in Brock Purdy. I love Purdy, but an injury to the throwing elbow that requires at least six months to heal is no joke. That opens the door again for Lance, meaning if you sold out to get him two years ago, I’m hanging on and waiting for his stock to bounce up again.
Sell: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
About: This is tough for me. I like the talent, and when available, we caught a glimpse of what Tua could do in this offense. But dynasty is about the long game, and after 2022 it’s hard to trust in Tua as a long-term asset. Tua threw for a career-high 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2022 despite appearing in only 14 games. His productivity while on the field will likely appeal to your league mates. There’s also always a chance he returns to form and produces well for eight to 10 more seasons, which would hurt after trading him. But I’m not confident. His concussions were no joke, and the discussion he might retire this off-season certainly seemed valid. He remains in the protocol even more than a month after the injury. I’m selling this off-season and looking to invest in a more solid option.
Sell: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
About: This is about health, production, and uncertainty. Murray is still a big name, and that gives value in leagues. He’s also a risky long-term asset with a very uncertain future. We know he’s under contract in Arizona, but what will the team be like? The coach and general manager that drafted and extended him are gone. He’s recovering from an ACL tear that many feel will keep him out until November. That means 2023 could well be a lost season, and what happens after that? With a roster loaded with expensive veterans, it seems likely the Cardinals will rebuild. Even in a supposedly high-volume offense with Kliff Kingsbury, Murray didn’t produce giant numbers. In four seasons, he’s never produced a 4,000-yard passing season or more than 26 touchdowns. If I’m relying on Murray as my QB1, I’m looking to make a move this off-season.
Sell: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
About: Is Rodgers done? It’s hard to say at this point. Is he done in Green Bay? Also, hard to say. But even if he returns or returns to the Packers, is he worth the hold? Rodgers was QB13 in 2022, which seems impressive. But it’s a drop from where he once was, and it’s no lock he finishes that high again. While on paper, a move to the Jets seems intriguing, it’s hard to tell how quickly he’d adapt to a new city, a new system, and a new set of teammates, no matter how talented. Rodgers’ best days are behind him, and his long-term future is far from certain. If you’re a contending team, maybe you hang on for one last ride. Otherwise, I’m dealing Rodgers to a team that is looking for upside in a title run and looking to add a player with more long-term value.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
