Welcome to another ADP Analysis article from everyone here at Campus 2 Canton. In this series, a member of our team will break down any ADP trends from all mocks conducted that month to help you get a jump on your league mates!
With our second month of mocks in the books, we can look at some players whose average draft position rose and fell. Some of these may have been reactions to spring practice news, while others may be freshmen that drafters are finally watching for the first time.
MOVING ON UP
John Metchie III – Alabama (UP 20):
Metchie’s rise feels more significant than several others, mainly because his ADP was already reasonably high. In February, Metchie had an overall ADP of 53, although he saw a wide variance in selection spot (23 at lowest and 68 at highest). That seemed low for the WR likely to lead Alabama in 2021, and it appears that drafters have caught on. With reports that Metchie dealt with an injury for much of 2020, his late-season fade can be explained away.
Alabama has a very green WR room. Outside of Metchie and slot receiver Slade Bolden, the Crimson Tide don’t bring back much in the form of production. Some younger players flashed in the spring game, but they won’t take Metchie’s job in 2021. Plus, new quarterback Bryce Young looks like he can keep this offense humming. Metchie should be taken in the 3rd round in most start-up drafts.
Devin Neal, RB – Kansas (UP 44.5):
This hype is probably due in part to C2C’s own Alfred Fernandez, who highlighted Neal as a top 3 star running back in the 2021 class. You can find his analysis here.
Neal is an appealing prospect, both from a talent and opportunity perspective. As most CFF and C2C managers are aware, Kansas is devoid of talent at virtually every position. They are a perennial punching bag for other teams in the Big 12. Last year alone, they lost games by 30, 33, 40, 41, and 53. Further, former Jayhawks’ starting RB Pooka Williams is now gone to the NFL.
With all the turmoil at Kansas this offseason, including the loss of head coach Les Miles and their Athletic Director, the dismissal of fellow top recruit Quaydarius Davis, and the usual shenanigans that occur at a school of Kansas’ level, Neal may be lucky to produce as a true freshman. But he has ideal size (5’11, 208) and adequate recruiting pedigree (RB21 in the 247 composite), both of which should help him see significant touches during his time on campus.
Max Johnson, QB – LSU (UP 38):
While some of the rises this month are difficult to explain, there’s no mystery as to why Johnson has seen a spike. Early reports from LSU’s spring practice state that Johnson, not incumbent Myles Brennan, took first reps. This development continued into the spring game, where the two quarterbacks split reps on the day.
Both QBs had their moments this offseason, but managers who like Brennan would do well to hedge with Johnson. A former 4-star recruit, Johnson has a solid arm, makes good decisions, and can push the ball downfield. The two are practically even in our ADP (136 for Brennan vs. 139 for Johnson), so you may have to choose which one you’d rather own. If you’re willing to gamble and guess correctly, that 11th round ADP looks like a steal.
Jashaun Corbin – Florida State (UP 20.5):
Managers faded Jashaun Corbin in 2020 but are starting to come back around. A highly regarded recruit out of high school, Corbin impressed as a true freshman at Texas A&M as a change of pace back. His sophomore season ended early due to a serious hamstring injury. He then transferred to Florida State, where he started the season slowly due to his recovery from injury. But midway through the year, Corbin seemed to round into form. In his final four games, Corbin had 46 carries for 241 yards and four touchdowns.
Corbin appears to be the established starter entering 2021 and should have improved offensive play around him. The offensive line gelled toward the end of last year, which was possibly a factor in Corbin’s emergence. Beyond line play, Florida State has a new QB in McKenzie Milton, an infusion of young talent at the wide receiver position, and a solid playmaking TE in Cam MacDonald. Alfred broke down their spring game here and came to the same conclusions on Corbin.
MOVING DOWN
Dillon Gabriel – UCF (DOWN 26.5):
C2C managers and college football fans are split on Gabriel’s pro prospects. If you believe he can be a contributor in the NFL, his current ADP of 90.8 probably looks like a steal. If you do not believe that (and I do not), then his 8th round range looks like a wasted pick.
Even beyond his pro prospects, most felt better projecting Gabriel’s 2021 season with HC Josh Heupel there. Now that he’s left for Tennessee and was replaced by former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn, there is more trepidation about his place in the CFF hierarchy. Heupel liked to push the ball deep at every opportunity, as did Gabriel. Malzahn does not share those preferences. Add in the loss of top 2020 target Marlon Williams and its easy to see why managers are quickly souring on Gabriel.
Bru McCoy – USC (DOWN 27):
This feels like a bit of a correction on McCoy, who had an ADP just outside the 5th round in February (61). Managers projected him into the WR2 spot for USC this year, but reports have not been encouraging this spring. At the time of these mocks the spring game had not been played, but rumors swirled that McCoy was behind several players on the depth chart. Our suspicions have now been confirmed: McCoy is probably not the WR2 for USC after running with the second team last weekend.
With a ton of other receiving options on the roster, including Drake London, 2nd year receiver Gary Bryant Jr., oft-injured Kyle Ford, Memphis transfer Tahj Washington, and tFR Michael Jackson III, McCoy’s time as a devy darling and legitimate C2C asset are probably over. In my opinion, he should not go in the first 15 rounds of start-ups, and our drafters have begun to agree.
Corey Rucker, WR – Arkansas State (DOWN 89):
Rucker was a hot name entering the offseason. The 6’2, 190 sophomore broke out in the final game of the 2020 season with a 9/310/4 performance. Arkansas State has produced high-end wide receiver play over the past few seasons, first with Omar Bayless & Kirk Merritt, then by Jonathan Adams Jr. The problem for Rucker? Other receivers have received spring hype, while Arkansas State has remained relatively quiet.
Rucker should still be a solid option for C2C rosters, he just shouldn’t go in the first 15 rounds of startup drafts.
HOLDING STEADY
Jahan Dotson, WR – Penn State (NO CHANGE):
It’s a bit odd that we had one player remain in place, not to mention three. Dotson might be the most well-known of these three. The senior receiver surprised many by deciding to return to Penn State for a final year, and looks to buoy his draft stock in the process.
Good or bad, there has been a lack of news out of State College this spring. That fact, coupled with the perception that Dotson is an unspectacular receiver, has kept his value fairly consistent. His ADP of 103 is fair. He will probably contribute in college this year (if Sean Clifford can get his act together), and should be a mid-round draft pick. That combo in the 9th round of drafts should reward managers.
Drake Maye, QB – UNC (NO CHANGE):
Maye has held steady at an ADP of 91 through two months of drafts. The heir apparent to Sam Howell at UNC, Maye is a pure stash at this point in time. He’s currently coming off the board as QB22, but that is likely to rise following his solid performance in the spring game.
Donovan Edwards, RB – Michigan (NO CHANGE):
Donovan Edwards is the last of our three in this grouping. The true freshman running back has made some waves at spring practice for Michigan, but we cant be entirely sure about his role for 2021. Edwards has a current ADP of 68, and I don’t see that changing much through the summer.
