Blake Horvath is the QB for the Navy Midshipmen. Rivals ranked Horvath as a 2-star recruit from Hilliard, OH, with no recruiting rankings on ON3 or 247. He had only one college football offer from the Navy Midshipmen and is currently leading all of college football in QBR through Week 6. I believe Horvath should be in consideration for the 2024 Heisman trophy.
Heisman History
Navy is currently in the American Athletic Conference. The last Navy player to win the Heisman was Pro Football Hall of Famer QB Roger Staubach in 1963. He was also the last player from the teams currently in the American Athletic Conference to win the Heisman.
The American Athletic Conference has won 5.6% (5/89) of the Heisman trophies, with the majority of trophies going to the Big Ten (31%) and the SEC (30%). It is extremely unlikely that a Navy Football player would win the Heisman, but Blake “Heisman” Horvath has a chance to capture a true underdog story.
Setting Sail
Navy is currently 5-0, and there are only twelve other undefeated teams in college football. Navy is ranked 28th in the coaches poll, which puts them on the outside looking in from being a ranked team.
The game that will determine a potential playoff spot is Notre Dame vs. Navy on October 26th. Looking at SP+ ratings, which are “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency”, Notre Dame ranks tenth with a 20.1 rating, and Navy ranks 70th with a 1.6 rating.
Notre Dame’s strong point is their defense, which is eighth in SP+, but Navy runs the Wing T Offense, which will test a defense’s discipline. Notre Dame has already shown a lack of discipline through their loss to Northern Illinois. Navy has one of the most efficient offenses in the country and would need to rely on outsourcing Notre Dame to come away with a victory.
The Resume
Horvath has a QBR of 92.9 and is averaging 7.58 total expected points added per game, 3.62 expected points added from passing, and 4.26 expected points added from rushing.
Jayden Daniels, who was last year’s Heisman winner, is the all-time leader in expected points added per game at 11.03, with 7.74 from passing and 4.53 from rushing. Caleb Williams, the 2022 Heisman winner, had 9.3 expected points added per game total, with 7.84 from passing and 2.25 from rushing. Bryce Young, the 2021 Heisman winner, had 6.57 total expected points added per game, 7.29 expected points added from passing, and 0.51 expected points added from rushing.
Along with Bryce Young, Horvath averages more total expected points added per game than Lamar Jackson in 2016, Jameis Winston in 2013, Robert Griffin in 2011, Sam Bradford in 2008, Tim Tebow in 2007, Troy Smith in 2006, and Matt Leinart in 2004.
Cam Ward is another solid option for the 2024 Heisman. He is averaging 11.62 total expected points added per game, which is better than Jayden Daniels’s stats from last year.
The main difference here is on the per-play level. Horvath has posted 0.28 expected points added per play and Ward has posted 0.22 expected points added per play. Daniels is also the leader in expected points added per game at 0.27. On a per-play basis, Horvath has been the best in recorded history.
