Last week was the halfway point in the season, and we are all set to kick off the third quarter of this College Football season. Trends and tendencies are fairly well-defined at this point, and in laying out what projections to take this week on PrizePicks, we should be holding everything up to the bright light of relevant data points. So with that, let’s jump into some of my favorite plays this week.
Saturday – Zach Evans (Ole Miss) More Than 80.5 Rushing Yards
We are again going back to the well with Zach Evans as Ole Miss goes to Death Valley for this matchup against LSU. Last week I posited that Evans’ workload would jump back up after going through a three-game stretch with an average of only ten carries per game, and it did just that. Against Auburn, Evans saw 21 carries and produced 136 yards, exceeding last week’s projection. The big metric that leads us back to Evans this week is that Ole Miss is first in the nation in rushing plays over 20 yards (3.29/game), while LSU is 104th in the nation in allowing explosive rushing plays (1.57/game). I think this points towards a huge chance for chunk plays with the running game and both backs being in play for daily fantasy, as well as PrizePicks this week. The difference between last week and this week is that we get to choose between an Evans and a Judkins projection to play. I recommend this one over the Judkins projection, as they project Judkins for an extra 17 yards. Last Saturday, the split between Judkins and Evans was 25-21 in favor of Judkins. I get the bump in his projection. However, this seems like a game where both backs should have ample opportunity and success, so we’ll take the projection that’s easier to hit.