We are approximately one-third of the way through the season. Where did it go? This week, we will look ahead to playoff weeks, look back at something really stupid that I said before the season, and review how the top G5 to P4 transfers have done so far.
Double Byes
The double bye weeks are messing with my mind. Many of us are looking towards the playoff week matchups to ensure our rosters are in peak performing condition. And what do we notice? Thirty teams are on a bye in Week 12! Another five teams are on a by in Week 13. Rarely do we see 23% of the player pool on a bye in a playoff week, but we have the double bye week schedule of 2024 due to a late Thanksgiving to thank for this.
We Poppin’ Like Ayo
Seven receivers have at least 30 targets, a 55% catch rate, and an ADOT of 14+ yards. Those receivers are Jordan Moore, Kyren Lacy, Tet McMillan, De’Zahn Stribling, Jack Bech, Eric Singleton, and Elic Ayomanor. These are pretty good success indicators for receivers because it tells us they are high volume, high success rate, intermediate to deep ball pass catchers. The only one on that list with less than two touchdowns is Ayomanor. Don’t be surprised if he explodes soon with some positive TD regression.
G5 to P4 Transfers
Here are the top 10 G5 to P4 transfers in terms of preseason CFF ADP (per Fantrax). As you can probably surmise from this beautifully color coded chart, only one has been a hit by maintaining or improving their fantasy output. Sarratt and Wester haven’t produced at the same rate since transferring, but have at least been roster worthy. Lacy has been injured, but the rest have been either flat out bad or struggling to get reps.
Now, not all G5 to P4 transfers are busts. But the moral of the story here is that it sure helps if they:
1) Follow their coaching staff like Conley and Sarratt
2) Lock up the starting job with a proven CFF Kingmaker like Nate Noel and Kurtis Rourke
3) Follow their coaching staff AND have the cojones to piss on their rival’s field like Diego Pavia
Where I Was DEAD WRONG
I had Ollie Gordon as the CLEAR RB1 over Ashton Jeanty. That’s on me, ya’ll. Your boy tweet shouted it from the mountaintops and was DEAD WRONG. DeAd WrOnG. Jeanty is a boss, a Heisman candidate, and probably a Day 1 or early Day 2 draft pick.
Just wanted to set the record straight. My Bad
Last Man Standing
Step right up, Jaquaize Pettaway. Congratulations on having a pulse. You now become the go-to receiver for the Sooners. What was once considered the strength of the offense is now on life support. But, Pettaway has been mentioned as a bright spot in practice since he arrived in Norman. He has been hindered by the addition of Deion Burks in the slot but will get his chance at Auburn. He’s believed to have a strong rapport with Mike Hawkins, given their work together with the 2s, and that bond showed last week as Pettaway gathered four targets for three receptions and a team-high 79 yards while only playing the fourth quarter when Burks went down. A really fun $3,300 play on DraftKings this week.
Cheers to week 5 and happy fantasy!
