The 2023 NFL Season is here, and with it comes some lineup questions. Which moves should you make to maximize your points? Let this weekly post be your guide as I offer one start and one sit suggestion at QB, RB, WR, and TE. These suggestions are based on my rankings against consensus each week. And because we want to measure our success, check back each week for a recap on how I did.
For the purposes of this project, a start is a player I think will finish Top 12 at QB or TE and Top 24 at RB or WR. A sit is a player I suspect will finish outside those metrics. Before we move forward, let’s look at last week’s picks. All finishes courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Week 1 Starts
QB: Dak Prescott, QB29 Miss. Turns out, Dallas didn’t need Dak to throw. Even in a 40-0 win, he didn’t do much.
RB: J.K. Dobbins, RB23 Hit. Barely made it. Dobbins had a strong start before getting hurt. He could have gone higher.
WR: D.J. Moore, WR74 Miss. Moore caught both his targets, but it wasn’t a great day.
TE: Kyle Pitts, TE 22 Miss. The Falcons won, but they didn’t throw much. I’m officially worried.
Start Record: 1-3
Week 1 Sits
QB: Aaron Rodgers, NA Hit. I didn’t know he’d get hurt, but that’s the breaks I guess.
RB: Josh Jacobs, RB32 Hit. Jacobs had an RB3 day in Denver, as I suspected.
WR: Michael Pittman, WR8 miss. Pittman had a great day. I misjudged the passing game with Richardson.
TE: Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, TE25 and TE18 Hit. Both were involved, and I could see both having a role, but there wasn’t enough volume on Monday
Sit Record: 3-1
Now, on to the Week 2 picks!
Start: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
About: Last week, I wasn’t high on Goff. His home/road splits over the past few years have been dramatic. And yet, he had a strong first game. He still finished as QB18, but he was turnover-free, and his team got a win. Goff is at home this week against a Seahawks team that lost at home 30-13 in Week 1. Goff was much better at home in 2022, and I think we’ll see him take off in Week 2 as part of his home opener.
Sit: Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
About: Jimmy G. had a strong Week 1. He finished as QB12. That was a combination of it not being a great week for QBs and a strong two-touchdown day. This week, the Raiders are on the road and get an angry Buffalo Bills team. Jimmy G. might be better than Zach Wilson, but I don’t see him cracking the Top 12 again in Week 2.
Start: Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
About: Sure, Bijan Robinson is there. That didn’t stop Allgeier from catching three passes, running for 75 yards and scoring two touchdowns in Week 1. He finished as RB4, while Robinson was RB7. Both will be involved, but don’t sleep on Allgeier. He is a Top 24 option as the Falcons look to best the Green Bay Packers.
Sit: Dalvin Cook, New York Jets
About: Sure, Dalvin was the starter in Week 1. He also got outplayed by Breece Hall. Hall was coming off an injury and getting eased back into it. But it looks like Hall is ready to run, and I think he takes over a bigger share of the workload. Add to that the Jets are on the road in Dallas this week—a defense that just bottled up Saquon Barkley and the Giants, and I’m not bullish on a Top 24 finish for Dalvin.
Start: Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
About: Eleven targets, eight receptions, 101 yards, and a touchdown. That was Ridley’s stat line. All those concerns about him having missed nearly two full seasons went out the window. He was WR6 in Week 1. The Jaguars play the Chiefs at home on Sunday in what figures to be a big game. The Chiefs allowed Amon-Ra St. Brown to finish as WR11 in Week 1. Ridley should have a good day.
Sit: Puca Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
About: The rookie finished as WR9 in Week 1. Doubtless, he’s rostered everywhere, and people are eager to throw him in a lineup. But I don’t think the Rams’ offense will move as freely against the San Francisco 49ers. While Nacua might be heavily targeted and might even be good enough to finish in the flex range, I don’t see a second Top 24 finish in Week 2.
Start: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
About: I thought Mike Gesicki would be a good fantasy play because the Patriots would feature the tight end. The logic was sound, but the player was wrong. Henry finished as TE1 in Week 1. You don’t want to chase points, and I don’t think he’ll be TE1 overall again, but the Patriots like Henry. We have seen it before, and I think we’ll keep seeing it this season.
Sit: Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
About: I get it; he finished as TE12 last week. He saw ten targets and caught six passes. That sounds like a great production and a great role. He had 21 total yards. The Cardinals offense remains a mess, and I think we’ll see 12 better tight end performances, at least, than what we’ll get from Ertz against a hungry Giants team in Week 2.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.