In the 411 series, I’ll briefly profile four teams, one player, and one coach you should get to know in each conference. I’m taking a look at teams on the rise, immediate impact transfers, under-the-radar talent, and more. After looking at the AAC and ACC, let’s turn our attention to the Big Ten.

I’ll go ahead and get the obvious out of the way…Ohio State is and will be good. Moving on…

2021 Big Ten expected wins, total wins, total losses, and srs

What to skip ahead? In this article:


Just as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, a Top 25 team’s odds are never truly secure against Purdue. In 2021, alone, the Boilermakers bested the [at the time] No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes 24-7 in Week 7 and the No. 3 Michigan State Spartans 40-29 in Week 10. Three years prior, Purdue stunned No. 2 Ohio State 49-20 (as well as defeated No. 23 Boston College and No. 19 Iowa). 

Now entering his sixth season with Purdue, head coach Jeff Brohm has yet to see a 10-win season. However, 2021’s 9-4 record and Music City Bowl win flirted with the notion that the best is yet to come for Brohm and the Boilermakers. After all, a nine-win season had not been witnessed in West Lafayette since 2003. But nothing ever comes easy. Purdue’s player and coaching personnel losses are hard to ignore. Will a winnable schedule, a few key returners and coaches, and potential from talented, albeit inexperienced, players be enough?

Key Returners

Purdue returns one of the least volatile quarterbacks in the nation and, arguably, one of the best QBs in the Big Ten. Aidan O’Connell, now a Super Senior, did not start for the Boilermakers until Week 4 of the 2021 season. Through twelve games, O’Connell went 315-of-440 (71.6%) for 3,712 yards, 11 interceptions, and 28 touchdowns. He only got better with time, too. Through the last five games, O’Connell went 161-of-223 (72.2%) for 2,161 yards (432 yards/game), three interceptions, and 19 touchdowns. Possessing such production and game-to-game stability is good news for the upcoming season and NFL upside.

Experience adjusted QBR of Big Ten quarterbacks

With some holes at receiver, at least O’Connell can look to tight end Payne Durham and wide receiver Broc Thompson. In 2021, Durham had 45 receptions for 467 yards and six touchdowns. Durham, as well as Garrett Miller, will provide the Boilermakers with a strong rotation at TE. Both Durham and Thompson (especially Thompson) were the heroes of Purdue’s dramatic, 48-45 OT Music City Bowl win over Tennessee. Before the game, leading star receiver David Bell opted out of the bowl to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft, and second-leading receiver Milton Wright did not travel due to academic issues. Thompson had only 23 receptions for 240 yards and two touchdowns to that point. Thompson had seven receptions for 217 yards and two touchdowns during the bowl game alone. Durham added five receptions for 85 yards and two touchdowns.

Rushing leader King Doerue is back, as is Dylan Downing. Obviously, their return is good for experience, but the ground attack is not the Boilermakers’ bread and butter. Purdue isn’t – nor should it be expected to be – a run-heavy offense. However, at minimum, they must play situational ball and keep the defense honest. Doerue has been thrust into carrying the load each year due to teammates’ injuries. Doerue plays his part well and, in 2021, led with 135 carries for 533 yards and two touchdowns.

Key Losses

The loss of WR David Bell to the NFL is one thing – inevitable – but still creates a massive hole. Wright being ruled academically ineligible for the 2022 season is something else entirely. At least with Wright, Purdue would have returned their #2 receiver in both receptions (57) and yards (732) while leading the team with seven receiving touchdowns from the 2021 season. With Bell’s departure, Wright would have taken on the No. 1 receiving role. Down a key playmaker, Purdue will depend on youth and transfers.

Notable Incoming Transfers

Considering O’Connell will be without his top three targets, the addition of WR transfers Tyrone Tracy (Iowa), Charlie Jones (Iowa), and Elijah Canion (Auburn) are much needed. And, after the spring game, Tracy seems to already play a large, versatile role in Purdue’s offense. Tracy – a redshirt junior – had 66 receptions for 871 yards, 13.2 yards per reception, and five touchdowns during his time with Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ pro-style offense – often criticized as underwhelming and a tired bastion – does not utilize and employ receivers like…say…Purdue. Tracy will find himself amongst O’Connell’s top targets and used in various roles: slot, backfield, and special teams. Given Rondale Moore’s and David Bell’s accomplishments, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to anticipate Tracy (or Thompson) as the # BrohmSquad’s up-and-coming, dynamic playmaker.

On June 12, Purdue picked up a commitment from Central Michigan RB transfer Kobe Lewis. Lewis could be the answer for a team needing a stalwart at RB. Prior to a season-ending injury that kept him from playing in 2021, Lewis totaled 297 carries, 1,579 yards, 18 touchdowns, and added 40 receptions for 270 yards and a touchdown. His best season was in 2019, with 182 carries, 1,074 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Lewis adds depth and, luckily, also seems to be a productive runner between tackles. Whether or not Purdue has a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2008 is yet to be seen, but Lewis’ arrival provides the potential for stability and explosiveness.

Comparing rushing yards over expected of Kobe Lewis in 2019 and King Doerue in 2021

Coaching Changes

With the departure of wide receivers coach JaMarcus Shepard to Washington, Garrick McGee takes his place. McGee has an extensive coaching background and, most recently, was with Florida as an analyst (2020) and quarterbacks coach (2021). He’s never been with a program for more than one or two seasons and last coached wide receivers in 2019 while with Missouri. 


Like their bitter rival, Ohio State, the expectations are always high in Ann Arbor. Through six seasons, Michigan head coach and alumnus Jim Harbaugh led the Wolverines to a 49-22 record, 1-4 bowl record, one conference division title, and four times finished the season ranked in the Coaches and AP polls. And, before the 2021 season, Michigan had not defeated Ohio State in “The Game” since 2011.

In 2021, the Wolverines went 12-2, defeated the Buckeyes 42-27, won the Big Ten Championship, ranked No. 3 nationally, and made it into the CFB Playoff Semifinal before falling to Georgia in the Orange Bowl. With talking heads questioning Harbaugh’s longevity in the Maize and Blue, Harbaugh silenced or, at least, muffled the criticism in 2021. 

Key Returners

The Wolverines return starting QB Cade McNamara, but a competition will likely ensue between McNamara and sophomore J.J. McCarthy…a “Michigan McBattle,” if you will. Last season, McCarthy saw action in eleven games and went 34-of-59 (57.6%) for 516 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions; the dual-threat, former five-star also added 27 carries for 124 yards and two rushing touchdowns. But it was McNamara who helped guide Michigan to their first Big Ten Championship since 2004. In 2021, McNamara went 210-of-327 (64.2%) for 2,576 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. 

Realistically, it is difficult to see McCarthy winning the starting job. Sure, he’s more athletic than McNamara, but “McCarthy is Michigan’s third highest-rated QB since 2000” isn’t reason enough to hand the keys over. Schematically, there are a lot of outside, moving parts that could determine the QB, as well. There’s an argument to be made that if the Wolverines can’t copy + paste their power run of 2021, they start McCarthy as leverage. If Michigan has another dependable ground-and-pound run game, McNamara starts. I’d maintain that McNamara starts Week 1, but, given the first four games, McCarthy will see an increased role. However, in terms of NFL upside, McCarthy has the upper hand. 

It would be quicker to answer the question of who is gone rather than who is back. While Michigan loses a lot on defense, they return 87% of their offensive production (13th nationally and first in the Big Ten, according to’s Bill Connelly). No matter who wins the McBattle, plenty of talent and experience will be at their disposal. 

RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, RB2 and RB3 respectively, are back and have some rather large shoes to fill with the departure of Hassan Haskins. In 2021, Corum racked up 144 carries for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Edwards had 35 carries for 174 yards and three touchdowns. Corum probably would have eclipsed 1,000 yards if it weren’t for a late-season injury. Foreseeably, Corum should have just as many touches in 2022, and Edwards will play a much larger role. Not to take away from Corum, but Edwards fits the bill as the ideal, contemporary back, which bodes well for a professional career. Even considering the one-two punch of Haskins and Corum, Edwards notably provided versatility and proved himself to be useful out of the backfield or lined up in the slot: adding 20 receptions for 265 yards and a touchdown. 

I’ve yet to mention that the Wolverines return their top five receivers in Cornelius Johnson, Roman Wilson, Mike Sainristil*, tight end Erick All, and, of course, the aforementioned Edwards. In 2021, the five combined for 58.0% of receptions, 64.0% of receiving yards, and 52.4% of receiving touchdowns. Johnson led the team with 40 receptions, 627 yards, and three touchdowns. But the big storyline here is the return of a healthy Ronnie Bell. During Michigan’s home opener/Game 1 against Western Michigan, Bell made his only reception count: a 76-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Unfortunately, Bell injured his right knee on a punt return shortly thereafter and was out the remainder of the season. In 2019, Bell led the team with 48 receptions, 758 yards, and a touchdown. Again, he led the receivers in 2020 with 26 receptions, 401 yards, and one touchdown. The receiver room is full, to say the least. 

*Sainristil will still be contributing on offense but will also be a starting defensive DB. 

Key Losses

Michigan will be without Haskins, who was, arguably, one of the best Wolverine RBs in recent memory. Now playing with the pros, Haskins made his senior season count with 270 carries for 1,327 yards and 20 touchdowns. His rushing yards were 17th most in the nation and second in the Big Ten, while his touchdowns were tied for third-most in the nation and first in the Big Ten.

It would be criminal for me not to mention defensive end, Aidan Hutchinson. Hutchinson’s honors and awards in 2021 paint a pretty accurate picture of his impact: Heisman Trophy runner-up and winner of the Ted Hendricks Award, Lombardi Award, Lott IMPACT Trophy, and Chicago Tribune Silver Football. In 2021, Hutchinson had 62 total tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, 14.0 sacks (school record), three pass breakups, 12 quarterback hurries, a fumble recovery, and two forced fumbles. None other than the Detroit Lions selected Hutchinson with their first-round, second-overall pick.

Notable Incoming Transfers

Although I mainly highlight skill position players and coaches in this series, it should be noted that Virginia center Olusegun “Victor” Oluwatimi transferred to Michigan. And as of May 24, 2022, Oluwatimi was given a 247Sports rating bump. According to The Michigan Insider, the now four-star transfer finished the transfer portal cycle as the No. 1 interior offensive lineman, No. 2 offensive lineman, No. 2 Big Ten transfer, and No. 13 overall transfer in the 2022 class. Oluwatimi replaces Andrew Vastardis. In 2021, Oluwatimi allowed three sacks, five hits, 12 hurries, 20 pressures allowed, committed nine total penalties, and had a PFF grade of 90.2 in run blocking and 75.3 in pass blocking.

Coaching Changes

The Wolverines experienced their fair share (plus some) of coaching changes and departures. Notably, Michigan lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Baltimore Ravens, and offensive coordinator Josh Gattis left for Miami. Filling their shoes will be defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and co-defensive coordinator Steve Clinkscale, while Sherrone Moore and Matt Weiss share co-offensive coordinator duties. Moore 

Penn State

Recently, I came across a Tweet that described a team as “consistently competitive but hasn’t done anything of real consequence in a long time.” Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Penn State. While this Tweeter wasn’t talking about Penn State, I can’t help but feel this describes the Nittany Lions. The expectations are always high – and rightfully so – but the execution is a bit off target. Notwithstanding, talent has always been in Happy Valley. In 2021, Penn State was represented by 31 players on active NFL rosters: eighth-most amongst FBS schools. 

In 2021, Penn State started as No. 19 in the AP’s Preseason poll. Through October 2, they seemed to be on track for a great season. They were 5-0, had defeated the likes of No. 12 Wisconsin and No. 22 Auburn, and were ranked No. 4. A 20-23 loss to No. 3 Iowa at Kinnick Stadium was probably heartbreaking, but nothing of too much concern. But then Penn State lost to the 2-5 Fighting Illini 18-20 in 9 OTs. Afterward, Penn State would go 2-3 in the remainder of the regular season. They lost to No. 6 Michigan and No. 12 Michigan State by a combined seven points. The disappointing season was capped off with a 10-24 loss to No. 21 Arkansas in the Outback Bowl.

Key Returners

QB Sean Clifford returns for his final season with the Nittany Lions. Clifford’s return, along with offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, offers a level of continuity…but will that be enough? In 2021, Clifford went 261-of-428 (61.0%) for 3,107 yards, 21 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, as well as added 99 carries for 163 yards and two touchdowns. After he sustained an injury during the Iowa game, Clifford went 143-of-250 (57.2%) for 1,625 yards, ten touchdowns, and three interceptions. He’s a bit polarizing player, with some sounding the alarm for a new starter while others are calling him a Big Ten dark horse. No matter, his decision-making, and inaccuracy tend to be a talking point, justifiably so. For a program with lofty goals, they really cannot afford to work out the kinks at quarterback. But, again, will the stability of Yurcich and year 2 in the same system be the key to success?

Also returning is rushing leader Keyvone Lee. In 2021 and Year 2 of his college career, Lee had 108 carries for 530 yards and two touchdowns, totaling 660 yards from scrimmage. With Lee in the same league as Haskins, Kenneth Walker, and TreVeyon Henderson, it was pretty easy to mindlessly skim over his numbers. But Lee, in fact, is quite efficient when utilized. If you haven’t, check out the Hero RB Show with Noah Hills (Episode 7) to learn more about one of the forgotten backs in the Big Ten. Lee and freshman RB Nick Singleton have an opportunity to turn heads and help Penn State’s ground attack turn a corner.

The receiver room will be in good hands between receivers Parker Washington, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and TEs Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson. Plus, I’ve yet to mention the key transfer addition. Although the offensive line will have some fresh faces, Clifford has all of the weapons at his disposal, no excuse. Washington – the No. 2 guy behind Jahan Dotson – accumulated 64 receptions for 820 yards and four touchdowns in 2021. You’d be hard-pressed to find a critical evaluation of Washington. He boasts a 60.0% contested catch rate (2021) and possesses an [often acrobatic] ability to make plays on both over and under-thrown balls and high points balls to create separation.

Key Losses

Penn State loses wide receiver Jahan Dotson to the NFL, while No. 2 running back Noah Cain transferred to LSU. Dotson – a fan favorite – had a legendary career in Happy Valley. He ended his playing career with 183 catches (No. 2 all-time program record) and 2,757 receiving yards (No. 4 all-time program record). In 2021, Dotson totaled 91 receptions, 1,182 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He was a bright, reliable spot when the Nittany Lions struggled, and his departure obviously leaves a huge hole. The Tinsley transfer couldn’t have been more timely as both possess similar qualities, namely long-stride speed and vertical athleticism. 

As for Noah Cain…well… you’ll just have to wait for the 411: SEC piece.

Notable Transfers

To answer your question, as a WKU fan, wide receiver Mitchell Tinsley is that good. With the departure of Dotson, Tinsley is an intelligent portal addition for Penn State. In 2021, Tinsley had a whopping 87 receptions for 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns in WKU’s Air Raid offense, and he was still second on the team in those statistical categories behind Jerreth Sterns. While Sterns lined up at slot and had a lot of YAC damage, the 6’1” and 203 lb. Tinsley split out wide and was a threat over the top. Tinsley was especially clutch toward the latter part of the season when defenders opted to double-team Sterns but at the cost of leaving Tinsley open. He has a nose for the ball and tremendous hands. During the last five games of the season, Tinsley had 44 receptions, 722 yards, and eight touchdowns.

Coaching Changes

On November 30, 2021, longtime James Franklin assistant coach, [former] defensive coordinator Brent Pry, was named Virginia Tech’s new head coach. Pry had been with Franklin since 2011. Franklin was Vanderbilt’s head coach from 2011-2013, and, during that time, Pry served as the Commodores’ associated head coach, co-defensive coordinator, and linebackers coach. In 2014 and 2015, he served in the same capacity at Penn State; then, from 2016-2021, Pry was the main defensive coordinator (and linebackers coach). 


Let me fill you in if you haven’t heard the story of Nebraska’s anomaly of a season by now. Nebraska ended the 2021 campaign with a 3-9 record but certainly never played like a 3-9 team. I don’t mean that metaphorically, either. In addition to playing tough and gritty, eight of the Cornhuskers’ nine losses were by one possession. Five of those nine one-possession games were lost to ranked teams. Three losses were by three points; those nine total points separated Nebraska from a 6-6 season. The one game in which Nebraska lost by more than one possession? Ohio State. Even then, they only lost by nine. Power Five schools with a 3-9 record (excluding Nebraska) lost by an average of 19.2 points per game; Nebraska lost by an average of 5.7 points.

What happened? Was it bad luck? Or, were (and are) the Cornhuskers on the precipice of greatness? 

Big Ten offense epa/play vs. success rate
Big Ten offense epa/play vs. defense epa/play

Key Returners

The Huskers return RBs Rahmir Johnson, Jaquez Yant, and Markese Stepp. Aside from former QB Adrian Martinez, Johnson led the ground attack with 112 carries as well as 495 yards and four touchdowns. In 2021, the three combined for 204 carries, 966 yards, and seven touchdowns. Experience and depth are there, so Gabe Ervin’s return from injury is the cherry on top. Before the injury, Ervin was starting as a true freshman. The backfield – in addition to a JUCO transfer I’ll get to in a minute – should be the least of Nebraska’s concerns.

With five of their top six receivers gone, Omar Manning returns as Nebraska’s top returning receiver. The receiver room is a *bit* depleted, otherwise. In 2021, Manning had 26 receptions for 380 yards and two touchdowns. His best game was against Purdue, with four receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown. According to PFF, Manning was 11-of-17 on passes over ten yards and 6-of-8 on contested catches. 

Key Losses

QB Martinez entered the transfer portal on December 2, 2021, and by December 16, Martinez announced his transfer to Kansas State. The phrase “key loss” could arguably be subjective as he played a role in Nebraska’s fortunes, or lack thereof. In 2021, Martinez went 189-of-306 (61.8%) for 2,863 yards, 14 touchdowns, and ten interceptions. He also added 133 carries for 525 yards and 13 touchdowns. Over his career, Martinez has gone 670-of-1,055 (63.5%) for 8,491 yards, 45 touchdowns, and added 508 carries for 2,301 yards and 35 touchdowns. He can definitely put up big numbers, but his name has become synonymous with turnovers…costly turnovers at that. No matter, it is always a daunting task to lose and replace experience and production. But this isn’t Martinez slander. He has an upside as a rusher, and K-State could be a better fit.

Notable Incoming Transfers

Texas QB transfer Casey Thompson joins the Huskers and is poised to become QB1. With Quinn Ewers transferring from Ohio State to Texas, Thompson probably saw the writing on the wall and, consequently, departed for a starting chance. Last season, Thompson went 165-of-261 (63.2%) for 2,113 yards, 24 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and 55 carries for 157 yards and four touchdowns. He’s not “Martinez mobile” nor explosive, but he can scramble for positive yards. Comparatively speaking, Thompson is much more of a pure passer, which should mesh well with the new offensive coordinator.

Nebraska also adds top-ranked JUCO RB Anthony Grant. According to JUCO prospect ratings, Grant is the No. 1 running back out of JUCO for 2022 and the No. 16 overall JUCO prospect. In 2018, Grant was a late flip from Tennessee to Florida State; he spent two seasons with the Seminoles before transferring to New Mexico Military Institute. During his two seasons with NMMI, Grant saw action in 20 games and had 357 carries for 2,549 rushing yards and 28 rushing touchdowns. In 2021, he led the NJCAA in carries, total yards, yards per carry, and was No. 2 in both rushing touchdowns and yards per game.

Coaching Changes

On November 8, 2021, head coach Scott Frost took a pay cut and fired four offensive assistants; the “sacrifice” essentially bought him more time to turn the program around. Those coaches relieved of their duties included the offensive coordinator/WRs coach, the O-line coach/run game coordinator, RBs coach, and QBs coach. By December 8, 2021 – and just one day after resigning as Pittsburgh’s OC – Mark Whipple joined Nebraska in the same role. Whipple has a long history in coaching and recently mentored Heisman Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett. In 2021, the Panthers ranked third nationally in scoring and sixth nationally in passing. Whipple will bring a blend of both Spread and West Coast offensive styles, not married more to one than the other. 

1 Player – Dontay Demus Jr., WR, Maryland

Maryland has an intriguing array of receivers, with the spotlight mainly on Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus Jr. 

Last season, Demus had 28 receptions for 507 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, a gruesome leg injury sustained on a kick return vs. Iowa sidelined him for the rest of the year. To that point, Demus had three 100+ yard games, was averaging 101.4 yards per game, and already had 61 yards by the beginning of the second quarter of the Iowa game. Before going down, he was sitting atop the Big Ten leaderboard and 11th nationally in receiving yards.  Whether injured or due to an abbreviated 2020 COVID-19 schedule, we haven’t seen Demus to a full extent since 2019. In 2019 – his sophomore season – Demus led the Terps in every receiving category with 41 receptions for 625 yards and six touchdowns. 

At 6’4” and 215 pounds, Demus is a big target, making his speed and movement all the more impressive. He does some damage downfield, too. Prior to the injury, Demus had seven receptions, eight targets, 279 yards, and a touchdown from deep passes of 20+ yards: fifth among Big Ten receivers (PFF). 

A small sample size of games or not, I’m certain that Demus was courting a breakout season. In the graphs below (dominator rating, receiving yards market share, and reception market share), you can see that Demus was on an upward trajectory before the injury.

Dontay Demus Dominator Rating
Dontay Demus Rec. Yards Market Share
Dontay Demus Reception Market Share

As he was being carted off after injury, Demus shouted, “I’m coming back!” Such an immediate response and attitude, whilst in pain, surely carried him through rehab. With a recovered Demus, plus receivers Jarrett and Jacob Copeland and TE Corey Dyches, Maryland might end up having one of the better all-around receiving units in the conference.

1 Coach – Barry Lunney, OC, Illinois 


Barry Lunney heads to Champaign, Illinois, by way of reigning CUSA Football Champions, UTSA. Lunney, who served as the Roadrunners’ offensive coordinator and QBs coach in 2020 and 2021, will be taking on the same role with the Fighting Illini.

Ahead of the 2021 season, newly hired Illinois head coach Bret Bielema brought on Tony Peterson to serve as the offensive coordinator and QBs coach. Except for RB Chase Brown, the offense ultimately struggled, including a success rate of 39.2%, EPA/play of -0.016, 20.2 points per game, and 329.8 yards per game. After one season, Peterson was dismissed. Cue Lunney.

UTSA and Illinois Offense EPA/Play vs. Success Rate

While with UTSA, Lunney and head coach Jeff Traylor quickly brought the Roadrunners back to life. In 2020, UTSA posted a 7-5 record, which included three one-possession losses to UAB, No. 15 BYU, and No. 16 Louisiana. In 2021, the Roadrunners went 12-2, won the CUSA Title, and were ranked as high as No. 22. Lunney’s offense – including QB Frank Harris, RB Sincere McCormick, and WRs Joshua Cephus and Zakhari Franklin – was nothing short of impressive. 

Illinois fans should expect a Lunney offense to employ a little bit of everything (but leaning read-option): zone-blocking, power run, pro-style, sometimes up-tempo, etc. The offense is so varied, it is difficult to defend. Lunney and his reliance on the run inherit the likes of RBs Chase Brown and Joshua McCray. Brown maintained the lion’s share of carries (170) and rushing yards (1,005), while McCray accounted for 112 carries and 549 yards. 

Lunney and the Roadrunners might have relied on the run (and relied on the run to win), but they needed a solid passing game to remain efficient.

If Sincere McCormick is to Frank Harris, then Chase Brown is to…? 

The answer to that analogy is likely Syracuse transfer QB Tommy DeVito.

UTSA Offense 2019-2021

Total Yards4,1394,9846,146
Success Rate39.0%40.8%45.2%
Explosive Play Rate26.9%25.0%


Want to read more from the 411 series? Check out The 411: AAC and The 411: ACC.

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