We’ve got some highly regarded college players dropping poopers every week and NFL players dropping like flies. It’s time to start looking at strategy more, and the shift of this series will head more in that direction. Waivers are still critical, as is setting a lineup with your highest scorers, but strategy becomes more crucial. We are managing two teams, and finding a balance between them is paramount.
The College Beat
We are finally seeing what our team is made of, but it isn’t time to panic fully yet. The non-conference schedule is more challenging for the G5 schools, and their performance may rebound against their conference foes. The P4 schools see the adverse effect, and performances may decrease, especially amongst your fringe start players.
Waiver Runs
We are almost to the point where the G5 schools face conference teams. We typically see stronger, more consistent players from those teams. If a player has been balling in the non-conference slate and now faces worse teams, they should be considered priority adds. Some may have been mentioned before, but these guys should be prioritized if you have limited waiver runs.
If you need quarterback help, there are two guys worth spending up with your budget. Tucker Gleason, the Toledo signal-caller, is high on my list for waiver adds. He’s hanging around in the top 20 scoring for college and only faces one defense that would even give me pause over the next nine games. Gleason is averaging nearly 30 points a game and has phenomenal matchups in the playoffs.
Eli Holstein is right amongst the top 20 scoring QBs and faces a similarly juicy lineup for the rest of the season. Pitt is playing well, and Holstein is averaging nearly 30 points a game, too. He’s got Weeks 5 and 8 byes, which bodes well for fantasy production down the stretch and into the playoffs.
If you haven’t had a waiver run yet, you will want to invest highly in Anthony Tyus. He’s been covered pretty heavily at this point. Braedon Sloan has the potential to be a league winner as Ball State loves to lean on backs, and he has a great schedule. One that has been available more recently is Billy Lucas. With the injury to Quinton Cooley, he’s more of a short-term help option. Kalel Mullings, the Michigan back, is one I am targeting as well and is available in many leagues. Mullings could become a monster if Michigan focuses more on the run game.
The options at RB are more short-term; I would suggest watching the wire closely to ensure someone hasn’t bailed on one of these players: Jaheim White, Corey Kiner, LJ Martin, or Marion Lukes. All have underperformed but have enticing matchups coming up and could rebound.
There’s a ton of WR help if you need it, and I will defer to Jared’s CFF Waiver article for short-term mentions if you need points. Nick Nash, Tai Felton, and Mac Dalena are must-adds if you haven’t had a chance to make a claim yet, and they are all worth spending some money on.
Giles Jackson has emerged for Washington more recently and should maintain strong production as the Huskies’ slot receiver. Devonte Ross, from Troy, is another strong consideration and has excellent matchups down the stretch.
If you need TE help, basically place these names on a dart board and chuck a dart in the direction of the board: Eli Stowers (17 targets last week), Gunnar Helm, Eli Wilson, and if Joe Royer is still out there – he’s your top target.
You’re 0-3. Time to Panic?
The short answer is yes, but it’s always more complicated than that. Typically, 0-3 in the NFL is a bit more daunting, and it can be on the NCAA side, too, with shorter seasons.
Take a step back and look at your team. Are you scoring well? Do you have guys like Kaidon Salter, Ollie Gordon, Ricky White, and Tory Horton? Those are some players we thought we would build our teams around that, quite frankly, have caused our teams to sink. If you have those guys, I wouldn’t bail quite yet. But if that’s all you have and not much depth else – those players should still be able to get you return value.
If you are getting a bad beat and scoring well, it’s time to hit the wire hard, but I wouldn’t be trading freshmen assets to beef up for a playoff run. I would caution against making “big-money” moves at 0-3. Don’t trade NFL assets or freshmen for producers like John Mateer, Kyle McCord, RJ Harvey, or Tai Felton. If you are 0-3, you still face an uphill climb, so I would caution against selling the farm and trying to rebound.
Don’t give up too quickly; it’s too easy to do that when you are 0-3. But if your team just plain sucks, by all means, trade those guys I listed above, every one of them. Salter, Gordon, Horton, Mateer, Harvey, all of them. They have minimal chances of success in the NFL, so ship them off. This is for highly regarded freshmen or help on the NFL side.
I love using them to chase veterans who can help me win the NFL side. If someone is chasing the college title and can use Mateer and Gordon, ship them off for Alvin Kamara, Baker Mayfield, or even an injured stud like Cooper Kupp, who could return and lead your NFL team to glory.
Week 4 Preview
Teams on Bye: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Oregon, UCF, Wake Forest, Wisconsin
Deadline to Set Auto-Substitutions: Thursday @ 7:30 EST
It’s our last week of non-conference matchups, and it’s not the strongest week, but it’s still college football, baby!
Illinois travels to Nebraska Friday night in a matchup of two teams that have recently crept into the top 25. This should be a fun game, but maybe not as relevant to fantasy.
USC traveling to Michigan is the Game of the Week, and Alex Orji takes over the reins for the Wolverines. Michigan is struggling a little, but they are still a huge test for the Trojans.
Tennessee gets its first big test, traveling to Norman to battle the Sooners. It’s a more significant test for Oklahoma, as they haven’t been very inspiring, while the Vols have been impressive. I expect Tennessee to roll, but it could be a high-scoring battle.
The NFL Beat
Injuries have decimated the NFL, with Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Isiah Pacheco all going down for at least a few weeks. Scoring is also down, and fantasy matchups are seeing some of the wonkiest scoring differentials. I noticed multiple scores in my fantasy leagues with more than 100 points separating the high- and low-scoring teams.
Waiver Wire Beat
Replacing those injured stars will be the theme of the week for waivers. Pacheco’s injury opens the door, and whoever grabs the reins in Kansas City will be the highest priority add this week.
I believe Carson Steele will take the largest share of the role and is the back to own. Samaje Perine will get touches and is a better pass-catcher. Kareem Hunt was brought in, and he will get owners to chase him, but he’s 29 and hasn’t looked great in the past two seasons.
With Kupp and Puka Nacua out, who will Matthew Stafford throw to? If they haven’t been, Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson should be added on waivers. Colby Parkinson and Tutu Atwell are in consideration in deeper leagues, but I’m not in a hurry to add either of them.
Matt Fox recently covered some other players to add, including Andy Dalton and Andrei Iosivas, but I am prioritizing those above.
The Veteran QB Resurgence
Ladies and gentlemen, your QB1 this season is none other than Baker Mayfield. After his strong finish to 2023, it’s not entirely a surprise he is up near the top, but to be sitting on the mountaintop, I don’t think any of us saw that. Yes, it’s only been two weeks, I know. The chances of him finishing QB1 are likely fairly slim.
It’s still impressive, especially given that he had a game against the Detroit Lions – and was on the ground for a good chunk of that game, thanks to Aidan Hutchinson. Mayfield is completing over 73% of his passes and has five TDs to only one INT. He’s averaged 24.2 fantasy points a game over the first two games, and nearly three points higher than your QB2, Derek Carr.
Derek Carr? What the heck? This site I am checking stats on has gone wonky. But alas, it is true, and Carr has led the Saints to a 2-0 record while scoring 47 against the Panthers, understandable, and 44 against the COWBOYS, a top-five defense in 2023. Carr is completing almost 77% of his passes and the veteran Saints’ offense is humming.
Further down, we’ve got Geno Smith at QB9, which is also believable, and just behind him, Sam Darnold is your QB10. Having Justin Jefferson to target is definitely a help, but Darnold is one of the pleasant surprises, and the Vikings just throttled the NFC Champs.
Seeing how the rest of the season plays out for all these veterans will be interesting. The declined production early in the season doesn’t seem to have affected the vets as much, which is somewhat understandable. But Darnold has never flirted with QB10 production. The production of these four vets has helped buoy any teams that relied on “value” QBs in Superflex drafts.
The Number Three
I promised myself that I would not go on another Taylor Swift tangent, and I won’t torture you all with that. Three is her “magical” lucky number, but I digress, let’s not go there again. It will be a Fortnight until I do that again.
The New England Patriots take on the New York Jets in the first of what is sure to be many lackluster Thursday night games. Philadelphia takes on the surging New Orleans team, and we will see if the Eagles can get their offense on track enough to keep up with Carr and Alvin Kamara.
Kansas City is finally on the road, heading to Atlanta. Hopefully, they packed their referee crew with them for the trip (I kid, I kid, don’t fine me). Detroit at Arizona could be the game of the week and a great test for Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.
There are two Monday night games; be prepared for that as you set your lineups. Whenever possible, put players from Jacksonville, Buffalo, Washington, and Cincinnati in the flex spots. It gives you flexibility if one is declared out.
On To The Next One
We soldier on to Week 4 in college and Week 3 in the NFL and adjust to whatever is thrown at us. I didn’t mention this, but if I’m 0-2 in the NFL, I am not reacting. There isn’t much to overreact to, even though Twitter is burying players after only two games. RIP Caleb Williams *According to Twitter/X
There is too much football to be played, and many offensive players seem to be plagued by slow starts. They will catch up. Your studs will be alright. Probably. As Jay-Z says in the immortal 2009 track, it’s “On To The Next One.”
