Five-Star? Check. A quarterback in a Superflex league? Check. Blue blood program? Check. What is not to like about Ty Simpson? To be entirely honest, I don’t quite understand this current ADP. At 134th overall, he’s going in the 12th round of drafts despite the numerous boxes he checks. I’m hard-pressed to find a better value player in Campus2Canton leagues.

With Simpson, he’s the 247 Composite QB3 and 26th overall player in the nation. Compared to his top quarterback counterparts in the 2022 class and their respective ADP (Drew Allar (28), Cade Klubnik (54), Devin Brown (63), and Connor Weigman (104)), Simpson’s ADP is suspicious at best and malpractice at worst. The legitimate questions revolve around his ability to get on the field early. With Bryce Young in his final season for the Crimson Tide and Jalen Milroe the current QB2, I think his ability to start soon is overblown.

5-Star Freshman

I am the highest on Simpson of anyone in our Campus2Canton Ranks as my QB9, but overall, the group of rankers has him QB23, still six slots above his QB29 ADP. With Simpson, the bet is on pedigree, situation, and quality of player.

First, in the last ten years, 5-Star quarterbacks have been drafted in the NFL at a 67.9% rate, and Day 1 or 2 43.9% of the time. Recently, as indicated in the graphic, recruiting services have been substantially better at identifying quarterbacks with 5-Stars going Round 1 50% of the time and Day 1 or 2 60% of the time. Given how difficult it is to find NFL players after the first few rounds of a Campus2Canton league, an on-average 60% chance of getting a productive NFL player feels like an incredible value in Round 12.

Draft Rates For 5 Star Quarterbacks

Years (Historical)Round 1Rounds 2-3Rounds 4-7Drafted
Last 1028.6%14.3%25.0%67.9%
Last 550.0%10.0 %10.0 %70.0%
Draft Rates for 5-Star Quarterbacks over the last 10 and 5 years using 247 Composite ratings.

Second, Alabama is a juggernaut at putting players into the NFL, evidenced by their league-leading 68 players on an NFL roster. Specifically, their ability to identify and develop quarterbacks has been impressive. The last four starters for the Tide have been Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts. Young is on track to be a first-rounder, and the other three are starters in the NFL right now, with Jones and Tua being drafted in the first round and Hurts early second. This team consistently produces NFL players, and Simpson could be the next in a long line of NFL players.

Ty Simpson – A High-Quality Player

Despite hammering home the historical precedent for backing Simpson in an abstract, he’s still a quality player in his own right. With 2,827 passing yards, 826 rushing yards, and 55 total touchdowns while throwing only three interceptions. Simpson was electric as a senior at Westview High School in Martin, Tennessee, both through the air and on the ground. An outstanding athlete, Simpson can provide dual-threat upside for your C2C leagues. In fact, it’s arguable that Simpson has been the best high-end athlete that the Tide has recruited at the quarterback position. From Campus2Canton’s 2022 Freshman Guide, with the profile written by Alfred Fernandez (@AlfredJF):

“His quick, compact release is very repeatable, and he has enough arm strength to get the ball to his target on time. He takes are of the ball with only 7 interceptions over 2 full seasons as the starter. Simpson improved his pocket presence between his 3rd and 4th year, adding a relaxed layer to his otherwise electric (and at times, erratic) game. What really sets Simpson apart is his athletic ability, he is like a twitchier Sam Howell and will legitimately make defenders miss while scrambling.”

Alfred Fernandez, Campus2Canton’s 2022 Freshman and Supplemental Draft Guide

Alfred does a great job highlighting his strengths, but another thing that impressed me from his high school tape is his ball placement is impressive with his release. Standing in the pocket, Simpson can deliver high-level throws, and even though mobility is what puts in in a truly elite tier of 2022 prospects, his passing ability shouldn’t be overlooked. Even recently, in Alabama’s scrimmage on Sunday, Simpson was able to show off his speed against elite-level athletes. Any questions about his athletic ability translating to college despite his questionable level of competition should be squashed. He finds a second gear in acceleration incredibly impressive against #22 (Tre’Quon Fegans, a high four-star freshman corner).

The Perfect Pro-QB Draft Strategy

Finally, as one of the key tenants of the Pro-Quarterback draft strategy, a quarterback with an elite recruiting pedigree will maintain value over time. As drafters, C2C players will ultimately default to the upside when a player has been touted previously. Comparing 2021 ADP with this year’s, we saw 78% of quarterbacks maintain OR gain value in startups despite the majority not starting a single game last season. Simpson would be the highest recruit if grouped with those players, making him safer than his compatriots last season. With Simpson, I expect his ADP to be at least five rounds higher in 2023, with the potential to be a top 36 overall pick given his opportunity to start after Bryce Young declares and his history as a 5-Star quarterback.

Maintaining value in C2C leagues is vital because not only do players bust at a correspondingly higher rate than their NFL counterparts, but they also hold value better. This implies this player still has a likelier hit rate while also representing trade value and upside. If you’re out on Ty Simpson in a year, his likely value will allow you to trade him for a valuable piece in the same range you prefer.

Conclusion

I’m flummoxed. An elite recruit at an elite program generally pushes top five round Campus2Canton startup value, yet Simpson sits outside the top 10 rounds comfortably. A dynamic player with a skill-set perfect for the 2022 NFL, it’s simply nonsensical. Given everything above, I think Simpson represents not only the single best value in drafts but also has legitimate upside long-term despite not being drafted as such. As the offseason goes on, I believe this ADP will correct over time, and by 2023 Simpson is viewed as a consensus top 12-15 quarterback in C2C leagues. Push the button on Simpson now.

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