Quarterbacks
Pay Up:
CJ Stroud, Ohio State ($10,000) vs. Tulsa: Stroud has been nothing but prolific for DFS scoring over the last two weeks averaging over 30 DraftKings points and accounting for close to half a thousand passing yards last week. Now Ohio State faces a Tulsa team that has allowed 7.81 yards per pass attempt and gave up 300+ yards to UC-Davis the first week.
Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma ($9,500), vs. Nebraska: Like Stroud, Rattler has been outstanding through two weeks this season. He’s been incredibly efficient highlighted by last week’s tour de force against Western Carolina with 243 yards and 5 touchdowns on only 26 attempts. The Sooners should be able to score plenty of points against a Nebraska defense that has allowed 0.16 EPA/per pass attempt thus far. Thats bad.
Some people may miss this because the ‘Huskers are allowing only 182 yards per game. Keep in mind, their opponents have been Brett Bielema’s Illinois, FCS Fordham and Buffalo. With the second-highest implied team total on the slate, Rattler should have a field day.
D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson ($8,800), vs. Georgia Tech: Although we still haven’t seen Uiagalelei reach his full potential, this could be the week he finally gets right. Georgia Tech brings a good rushing defense ranked 26th in EPA/rush attempt at -0.232. While they’ve allowed over 161 yards per game, teams have been inefficient on the ground. This could be the game-script for DJU to excel given that Clemson ranks 17th in the country in pass rate (56.3%).
It’s clear they want to get the ball in the hands of their star QB. A match up against a defense that ranks 80th in EPA/per pass attempt would be a good time to do so. He also brings rushing upside as he scored two touchdowns last week on the ground.
Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina ($8,300), @ Buffalo: McCall is priced down but is in a good matchup this week against a Buffalo team allowing 10.71 yards per pass attempt (125th). Although Coastal has one of the lightest pass rates in the country at 39.1%, McCall’s efficiency (12.7 yards per pass attempt) and rushing ability give him one of the safer floors of the week. He comes with a huge ceiling with multiple rushing TDs in his range of otucomes.
Middle Tier:
Jack Plummer, Purdue, ($7,900) @ Notre Dame: This is just as much about Plummer as it is about Notre Dame. The Irish have been putrid on defense through two weeks allowing 33.5 points per game between Florida State and Toledo. Although the Irish have bled rushing yardage, Plummer is by far the best quarterback they’ve faced. With an implied game total of 58.5, Purdue should have to take to the air to put up points. Plummer himself has been great thus far with 558 yards and 6 touchdowns through two games.
Sam Hartman, Wake Forest ($7,800) vs. Florida St: Hartman takes on Florida State as the favorite in the highest game total on the slate this week. Florida State, who is coming off an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville State has been very impressive against the run but has allowed overwhelming efficiency in the passing game.
Hartman should have no problem carving up this Seminoles secondary that is allowing over 10.46 yards per attempt and is 87th in EPA/per ass attempt with 0.233. With five games of 300 yards or more between 2019 and 2020 in 12 full games, Hartman has legit bonus potential.
Adrian Martinez, Nebraska ($7,300), vs. Oklahoma: If you’re playing Martinez this week, I recommend not watching the game. There’s a good chance he looks terrible for 54 minutes but pulls out a more than satisfactory DraftKings score by the end. Through three weeks, Martinez has 256 rushing yards and three touchdown, to go along with 728 passing yards.
Martinez’s true value comes as a rusher where he’s eclipsed 100 yards twice this season and should need to use his legs once again to keep the game close. Either way, garbage time for Martinez could lend itself to a big game (or 4 turnovers).
Salary Savers:
Brendon Lewis, Colorado ($5,500), vs. Minnesota: As with some of the other quarterbacks on this slate, we haven’t seen Lewis unleashed yet. A week one cakewalk followed by a week two contest against of the country’s best defenses has left Lewis forgotten. However, he has a good matchup this week against a struggling Minnesota defense that allowed Miami (OH) to score 26 points last week.
The Gophers rank 121st in yards per pass attempt (10 and 97th in EPA per pass attempt (0.335). On the ground, Minnesota has allowed 5.4 yards per carry and ranks 96th in rushing EPA per play. Most of Lewis’ value will come through the ground but with a soft matchup in both phases, he should also be able to thrive.
Davis Brin, Tulsa ($4,800), @ Ohio State: This is a gross one-off tournament play. Brin has averaged only 9.2 DraftKings points per game despite facing UC Davis and Oklahoma State through two weeks. However, it hasn’t been all bad. He does have 425 yards through two weeks with an average of 7.7 yards per attempt which is slightly above average.
The real kicker is he gets an Ohio State defense who simply as not looked good in a positive game script. Brin will be forced to throw as 26.5-point underdogs and the Ohio State defense has ranked 90th in both yards per pass attempt and EPA per pass attempt. The play of Brin is exclusively tournament-based and even though Tulsa’s implied team total is only 16.5, Brin doesn’t need much to pay off.
Running Backs
Pay Up:
Kyren Williams, Notre Dame ($7,200) vs. Purdue: Despite the involvement of Chris Tyree, Kyren Williams has been the featured player for the Irish through two weeks. He’s averaging 21.5 opportunities (targets + rush attempts) per game and gets a Purdue defense who has been ranked outside the top-60 against the run this year in EPA per play. William’s heavy involvement in the passing game (9 targets and 55 routes through two weeks) keeps him among the top plays on the slate. I anticipate a positive game script with the Irish as 7-point favorites.
Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State ($7,1000) @ Miami (FL): Walker has been on fire to start the year averaging 32.5 DraftKings points per game while rushing for 160.5 yards per game. He gets another good matchup this week against a Miami team allowing 150 yards per game while ranking 72nd in EPA per rush attempt.
Last week, the ‘Canes allowed Camerun Peoples to post 17-95-1 while struggling to contain the App State offense. Walker is better than Peoples and Nate Noel (who also had 51 yards) and should be the focal point of the Spartan’s offense despite being 6.5-point dogs.
Jerome Ford, Cincinnati ($7,000) @ Indiana: Ford has been electric in two blowouts this year averaged 16 rush attempts for 7.8 yards per carry and back-to-back 100-yard games. He’ll get his toughest test of the season thus far against an Indiana team who was trounced by Iowa, giving up 34 points in week one. Despite the lofty pre-season expectations, the Hoosier’s rush defense ranks 76th in EPA per rush attempt. Ford should have a productive day as the team’s primary ball carrier and receiving back.
Middle Tier:
Leddie Brown, West Virginia ($6,900), vs. Virginia Tech: Brown struggled last week against Long Island University with only 2.1 yards per carry because they keyed in on the run game. Brown still managed two touchdowns and through two weeks is averaging 25.5 DraftKings points per game on 20 opportunities per game. Running 60 total routes this year and seeing 8 targets, Brown should be heavily featured in this close matchup against a Virginia Tech. As an extra bonus, the Hokes rank 74th in EPA/per rush attempt.
Jashaun Corbin, Florida State ($6,800), @ Wake Forest: Corbin has been a surprising story through two weeks thus with back-to-back 100-yard performances and a touchdown in each. Corbin, who’s handled 62.5% of team rush attempts, gets a defense who can be beaten on the ground, giving up over 143 yards per game this year. Corbin has been involved in the receiving game with 6 targets through two weeks.
Salary Savers:
King Doerue, Purdue ($4,600), @ Notre Dame: Doerue is potentially the best play on the entire slate as he slides into the three-down role vacated by Zander Horvath’s injury this week. Last week after Horvath went down, Doerue had 12 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown. He doesn’t get UConn again, he does face a Notre Dame rush defense allowing over 5 yards per carry and 0.339 EPA per rush attempt (85th).
Shermari Jones, Coastal Carolina ($4,400), @ Buffalo: Jones is a $3,300 savings off Reese White despite having 2 fewer rush attempts through two games and the same number of targets. The touchdowns have gone White’s way as he has 5 on only 21 carries but Jones has been efficient as well averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. He also has two touchdowns on the year. On a Coastal Carolina team that currently has the nation’s lowest pass rate (39.1%), White and Jones should see a close to even split and as 12.5-point favorites, I’ll take the steep discount and still get a piece of the Chanticleers.
Receivers:
Pay Up:
Drake London, USC ($7,900), vs. Washington State: Despite having the slate’s lowest total, London is in play due to his monster target share. With 24 targets through two games for a 30.8% target share, London should once again be the focal point of the offense. Averaging over 100 yards through two contests, the Trojan’s receiver could pay off in a massive way against a Washington State defense allowing 268.5 yards per game in 2021. Editor’s note: London tweaked his back and is questionable for Saturday’s match up.
David Bell, Purdue ($7,700), @ Notre Dame: David Bell essentially picked up where he left off last year and through two games is averaging 9 targets and 124 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. A clear favorite of Plummer’s, Bell should the go-to option for the Boilermakers. Even in a relatively tough matchup I am not worried about his production.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Bell has posted over 100 yards in six of eight games and was below 78 yards only once and has 11 touchdowns in those games. Expect Bell to have a massive target share again this week.
Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest ($6,800), vs. Florida State: Roberson is priced down on this slate despite going against one of the country’s worst pass defenses. They just allowed Zerrick Cooper of Jacksonville State to throw for 330 yards. Before that, Jack Coan lit them up in week 1 to the tune of 366 yards and 4 scores.
Roberson is the best dollar-for-production receiver in this price range, operating as the clear number one option for Hartman with a 25.6% target share through two games.
Middle Tier:
Garrett Wilson, Ohio State ($6,400), vs. Tulsa: Whoever is pricing Garrett Wilson for DraftKings needs to double-check their model because Wilson is mispriced two weeks in a row. Last week at $5,900 he was a value and now this week at $6,400, the same holds true. With 25 targets through two games and a massive 32.9% target share, Wilson has been the most targeted Ohio State wide receiver on the season. They come in as heavy favorites in this matchup but given the explosiveness of the passing game, it won’t be hard for Wilson to hit in your lineups.
Joe Ngata, Clemson ($6,000), vs. Georgia Tech: Ngata has been the best piece of the Clemson offense this season with 13 targets through two games resulting in 161 yards. An early favorite for the Tigers’ passing game, Ngata should feature again this week against a Georgia Tech defense that has struggled in efficiency. They’ve allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt and rank bottom half in EPA per pass attempt.
As referenced above, Clemson’s 56.3% pass rate ranks 17th in the country and while they come into the game as heavy favorites, they should still see volume through the air while the game is competitive.
Travell Harris, Washington State ($5,500), vs. USC: Harris rebounded from an ugly week one in which Jarrett Guarantano started and saw poor efficiency, averaging only 4.3 yards per attempt. Last week, albeit in an easy matchup against Portland State, Harris went 6-80-2 and looks to continue his success with Jayden de Laura at quarterback.
USC’s pass defense through two games has been lackluster, allowing 7.86 yards per attempt and ranking 51st in EPA per pass attempt. Harris could be in for a big week knowing Washington’s 54% neutral situation pass rate.
Salary Savers:
Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina ($4,400) @ Buffalo: Likely has been solid thus far with 5 catches in each game, averaging 52 yards. Despite being tied for the team lead in targets with Jaivon Heiligh, Likely represents a $3,900 savings. His 31.1% target share should result in him finding the endzone as soon as this week with the Chanticleers having an implied team total of 35 points this week.
Mario Williams, Oklahoma ($4,100), vs. Nebraska: The true freshman has been a revelation for the Sooners this season with 12 targets through two games. He has run the third-most routes on the team and leading the receiver group with 15.5 DraftKing’s points per game. Williams should be productive again this week despite being heavy favorites given that Oklahoma runs a lot of 3WR sets and he’s Spencer Rattler’s leading target.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton, West Virginia ($4,100), vs. Virginia Tech: Ford-Wheaton is suspiciously priced this week. Despite having one more target (14 to 13) and almost identical yardage through two weeks, he’s $1500 cheaper than Winston Wright. West Virginia brings one of the country’s heaviest neutral pass rates at 63% and faces a Virginia Tech defense allowing 245.5 passing yards per game.
The Hokies just gave up 283 passing yards to Middle Tennessee State last week. Ford-Wheaton also leads the team in routes run and should feature heavily in a close matchup this week.
Jalen Nailor, Michigan State ($4,000) @ Miami: Nailor is $2,900 cheaper than Jayden Reed this week despite having more targets (14 to 12) and running more routes (45 to 41). Reed is explosive, averaging an absurd 27.2 yards per reception while Nailor has averaged only 9.8 yards per reception this season. However, through their respective career’s Nailor has been the more explosive option of the two.
With more targets than Reed through two games, this is an opportunity to buck the recent trend against a Miami defense allowing 7.58 yards per pass attempt (95th) and 0.432 EPA per pass attempt (99th).
Jackson Anthrop, Purdue ($3,800), @ Notre Dame: Anthrop has been forgotten this season as David Bell and Payne Durham continue to produce but should be on radars this week. With 12 targets through two contests, Anthrop should be involved this week as a 7-point underdog to a Notre Dame team that has allowed 33.5 points per game this season.
