Last week was another tough one for the nerds but this week we’ve seen more from some of the teams and have a better handle on who is and isn’t. good and hopefully can parlay that into some success in our bank accounts. Below are my favorite plays of the week including some of our favorite player props from PrizePicks.
Purdue @ Notre Dame (-7) OU: 58.5
This should be a fun matchup this week as the Boilermakers head to South Bend against an Irish team that has been brutal on defense thus far. Allowing 33.5 points per game, 6.68 yards per pass attempt, and over 198 yards on the ground thus far, Purdue should be able to take advantage of the Irish’s incompetence.
As for Purdue, their pass defense is solid but their rushing defense is allowing 0.135 EPA per rush attempt and has been beat in the short and intermediate areas. Notre Dame QB, Jack Coan should thrive. I think Purdue is one of the more creative offensive teams in the country, pushing tempo and drawing up fun plays. Purdue is running over 76 plays per game (11th) while Notre Dame is running 72.5. Given the poor defenses and fast pace of play, the 58.5 total is set slightly too low in what could be a fun shootout.
Recommendation:
Purdue/Notre Dame game OVER 58.5
Purdue MoneyLine sprinkle @ +225
Central Michigan @ LSU (-19.5) OU: 61
This LSU team is a disaster right now despite being only 1-1, this offense is just awful. Against McNeese State, QB Max Johnson went 18-27 for 161 yards on only 6.0 yards per pass attempt. As for the rushing game, the team went 36-125-1, good for 3.47 yards per carry. Again, this was against McNeese State, not a vaunted SEC defense. They struggled similarly against UCLA and have yet to show a competent offensive performance thus far.
Central Michigan isn’t a great defense, but they did limit Missouri to only 34 points in week one who has shown to be more competent offensively than this LSU team. With all that said, the team total of 40.5 is far too aggressive this week for LSU and it’s a great under.
Recommendation:
LSU team total UNDER 40.5
Coastal Carolina (-14) @ Buffalo OU: 57.5
The total in this game is slightly higher than I would prefer in a matchup where both teams are outside the top half in pace (Buffalo 64th and Coastal Carolina 95th). The Chanticleers struggled last week containing a bad Kansas team, but this Buffalo team should be an easier challenge without a dynamic quarterback and a one-dimensional rushing game. Coastal Carolina’s defense excelled on both phases, with a rushing EPA ranked 23rd, while their passing defense ranks 1st.
One of the more well-rounded defenses in the country, the Chanticleers get a Buffalo team who scored only 3 points against a bad Nebraska defense. With the likely game script, they’ll likely need to abandon the run and put the ball in the hands of quarterback Kyle Vantrease who went 27-50 for 224 on 4.5 yards per attempt. This game shouldn’t be high-scoring as the Buffalo offense will likely sputter.
Recommendation:
Coastal Carolina/Buffalo game UNDER 57.5
Buffalo team total UNDER 22
Player Props via Prize Picks
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***FRIDAY*** Marshon Ford OVER 2.5 receptions
Ford has been a staple for Louisville this year and this should be another high-scoring matchup between these two teams. Ford has averaged 5 targets per game thus far through two contests and leads the entire team in routes run with 60. He should again be heavily featured in this matchup.
Sam LaPorta OVER 3.5 receptions
Back to the tight end well (who I believe are routinely underpriced on PrizePicks), we have Sam LaPorta at 3.5 receptions which is simply too low for a player averaging 7 targets per game and a monster 28.6% target share. Although I don’t think they’ll need to throw much against Kent State, LaPorta is too heavily involved not to see at least 5-7 targets in this contest.
Desmond Ridder OVER 0.5 Rush TDs
I like to live dangerously and this is a prop that’s off-the-beaten-path. Over Ridder’s last 12 games (2020 and through two weeks of 2021), he has 13 rushing touchdowns in 12 contests. In what should be a statement game for Cincinnati this week, Ridder will have every opportunity to make his mark including scoring a rushing touchdown against one of the country’s more disappointing defenses through two weeks.
