Last week we were back on track going 5/6 with our picks and 1 / 2 in PrizePicks. Let’s see if we can’t keep the momentum going during a week with a lot of perceived values.
Minnesota @ Purdue (-2.5), OU: 46.5
One of the more curious spreads this week, Purdue comes in as only a 2.5-point favorite against a Minnesota team who was just humiliated by Bowling Green. BOWLING GREEN. Purdue has been playing good football despite a loss to Notre Dame and is especially strong against the run, ranking 5th in defensive success rate. This is a bad matchup for Minnesota’s strength but equally an bad is the record against the spread for teams coming off a loss as a 20+ favorite in their next game going back to 2019. Purdue should win this week against a Golden Gophers team that is spiraling.
Recommendation:
Purdue -2.5
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (-0.5) OU: 59.5
In a classic G5 battle, Eastern Michigan heads to NIU as an underdog in a matchup where Vegas may simply have got this spread wrong. The Eagles are 3-1 heading into this week and have put together back-to-back wins, winning by a combined margin of 103-49. This team seems to have found its groove offensively and gets a Huskies team led by Michigan St transfer Rocky Lombardi. After a big win at Georgia Tech week 1, the Huskies were looking like a sleeper team. However, they struggled in Wyoming, allowing 50 points in route to a loss.
Their challenge this week is even more difficult slowing down an Eastern Michigan team averaging 51.5 over its last two. Ultimately, I think the Eagles pull this one out as their offense is going to be too much for Northern Illinois. However, I am expecting an offensive bonanza with 70+ point potential. Both defenses rank bottom-10 in the nation in defensive success rates with each having top-45 offenses. This has a shootout written all over it.
Recommendations:
EMU +110 ML (Bet MGM)
EMU/NIU OVER 59.5
Oregon (-7.5) @ Stanford OU: 57.5
What exactly is going on here with this spread? Stanford just loss by double-digits to a UCLA team that’s worse than Oregon but come in barely as a touchdown dog? This doesn’t make any sense to me despite Stanford’s improved play recently. Oregon wants to run the ball this week and gets a Stanford defense ranked 102nd in success rate against the run. With two solid backs in CJ Verdell and Travis Dye, I could see a monster game for Oregon in which they control the clock and Stanford has little opportunity to mount an attack. This spread is a doozy and Oregon should cover this easily
Recommendation:
Oregon -7.5
Player Props via Prize Picks
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**FRIDAY** Tiyon Fleet-Davis UNDER 62.5 Rushing Yards
What is with this prop? Fleet-Davis has been the guy for Maryland this week but gets an Iowa defense ranked in the top 10 in every rushing category imaginable. Fleet-Davis has exceeded this number in 2/4 games this season but given the strength of the Hawkeyes front-7, this makes very little sense to me.
Jonathan Mingo OVER 5.0 Receptions
With an implied total of over 80, Ole Miss’ second leading receiver should be heavily featured again this week as they take on Alabama. Averaging 8.3 targets on the season, with 9 in his last game, Mingo should be able to crest 5 receptions or push at worst. He is the best-discounted prop in this game and has the potential to smash that number if it plays out like Vegas thinks.
