A so-so week last week, I think Vegas left a lot of value on the board this week in terms of team totals and a couple of lines that haven’t moved as much as I figured they might. Let’s see if we can’t win some money this week.
Southern Miss @ Alabama (-45.5) OU: 58.5
My absolute favorite play of the week comes in this game with Alabama -10.5 1Q. With a monster spread like this, a lot of things can go wrong but Alabama comes out firing in the first half every single week and I don’t think it will be different against a truly awful Southern Miss team. The 1H spread is -28.5 which makes me like the 1Q spread even more since we’re getting some value compared to the second quarter. I think both are in play. Thus far through three games, Alabama has averaged 15 points in the first quarter per contest with the lowest being only 10 against Miami. The Crimson tide will score in the first half and might pop two huge plays within the first few minutes. I think the other play in this game is the under. I think Alabama will score at a ton of first-half points but hitting a total close to 60 is tough with how bad the Southern Miss offense has been and Alabama likely playing their 2nd and 3rd string players in the second half.
Alabama -10.5 1Q , Alabama -28.5 1H
Southern Miss @ Alabama under 58.5
Louisville (-1.5) @ FSU OU: 61.5
I know Florida State is at home but are they really 1.5 points worse than Louisville in Tallahasse? This is a Cardinals team that had a very solid win against UCF last week and has seen Malik Cunnham go absolutely nuclear. This Louisville team can score points at will and the Seminoles have been bleeding points all season with losses to Jacksonville State and Wake Forest. Ranked 79th in defensive success rate, Florida State cannot stop anyone right now and should be concerned with their offense that over the last two weeks has put up a combined 31 points against JSU and Wake Forest. This is a bad team and the spread is insulting to the Cardinals.
Louisville -1.5 (I might take an alternate spread up to 3.5 or 4)
San Jose State @ Western Michigan (-2.5) OU: 62.5
This game could be a blowout and the spread of 2.5 is once again generous to a San Jose State team that has really not performed well this season under quarterback Nick Starkel despite being 2-1. With an offense success rate of 116th in the country, the Trojans are going to struggle scoring despite a leaky Broncos defense. Over the last two weeks, they’ve combined to score 24 points against USC and Hawaii, which makes the 45-point outburst week one against Southern Utah a distant memory. Western Michigan has a poor defense as well, registering 121st in defensive success rate but a lot of that is attributed to going against two Power 5 programs. Offensively, the return of Skyy Moore adds an element to this offense under Eleby that should be able to put up points on the Trojans this week. I think this is another game where the alt line is in play as San Jose State is playing a weird time for them up in Kalamazoo (stand up).
Western Michigan 1H -0.5
Western Michigan -2.5
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**FRIDAY** Sam Hartman OVER 258.5
This game has one of the highest totals on the slate at 68 and for Wake Forest to stay competitive, Hartman will need to throw the ball. The ascension of A.T. Perry and the reliability of Jaquarri Roberson should lend themselves to Hartman smashing this over. One thing to note is that Wake Forest is also running a play at the 5th fastest pace in the country so, despite the heavy run rate (which was mostly a matchup thing anyway), Hartman should have plenty of opportunities.
Kayshon Boutte OVER 6.0 Receptions
Another high game total to target, Boutte is the alpha for an LSU offense with a 59% pass rate who will continue needing to throw in a potential shootout in Starkville. Averaging 9.3 targets per game this season, Boutte hasn’t been needed the last two weeks but that will change this Saturday. Max Johnson should rely on him which means when there is potential for 50+ pass attempts, and Boutte should eat in this matchup.