We’re back on board with another twofer and we’re targeting teams who are struggling on offense.
Missouri @ Georgia (-28)
Missouri is bad. I mean really bad. The Tigers have been underwhelming to start the year and have another huge test against Georgia this week. Against competent defenses (Kansas State and Auburn), the Tigers have a combined 26 points and on the season rank 113th in explosiveness and 106th in EPA per play. They have failed to move the ball consistently and the ultra-conservative play-calling from Eli Drinkwitz doesn’t help.
It doesn’t get easier against a Georgia team that ranks top 5 in both points per opportunity and limiting explosive plays on defense. Through three weeks, the Georgia defense allowed 10 total points including against Oregon and South Carolina. They were tested last week with Kent State scoring 22 points but *whispers*, that Golden Flashes’ offense might be good. Missouri is going to struggle to score and may be missing one of their most dynamic weapons in Luther Burden, who is busy cryptic tweeting.
The Tigers aren’t going to score in this matchup and having a team total of 13.5 out there is juicy. I don’t know where points come from on this Missouri side.
Play: Missouri TT u13.5
Boise State (-6.5) @ San Diego State
This number is too dang high. Boise State is entering disaster mode with the firing of Tim Plough and the immediate transfer of Hank Bachmeier following the loss to UTEP last week. This offense scored a measly 10 points against a UTEP defense that ranks 93rd in points per opportunity and 77th in EPA per play.
This week, Boise State will start Tayln Green at quarterback and while he’s a good rusher, he doesn’t have the ability to push the ball downfield. San Diego State should be able to scheme up a defense that limits Green just as they did last week with DeQuan Finn. On the season, Green is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt and with how well the San Diego State secondary is playing (ranked 34th in coverage per PFF), Green won’t be throwing deep.
The Aztec’s front seven is the difference maker in this game. Jonah Tavai and Keshawn Banks are seriously disruptive and form one of the best linemen duos in at the Group of Five level. The two have combined for 30 pressures through four weeks and the entire front seven has generated 69 pressures, averaging over 17 a game. The Boise offensive line ranks 90th in run blocking and 79th in pass blocking. This unit can get in the backfield and contain the quarterback.
Play: San Diego State +6.5