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Quarterback
High-End
Matt Corral, Ole Miss ($10,000) vs. Arkansas: Corral is an intriguing play this weekend. After a bit of a dud against Alabama his price is actually increased up to that rare 10K mark. In hindsight, perhaps a chalk QB on the road against Bama might have been a good fade. But this is a new week with a new opponent and Corral is likely a smart “pay up to be different” play. Arkansas’ strength on paper is their pass defense, coming in as a top 5 group in yards per pass attempt allowed as well as explosive pass rate. The caveat is that they have only played one team with a power 5 caliber QB and that was Hudson Card of Texas. Granted, the Razorbacks essentially sent Card to the bench, but the unit has not faced much of a test yet. That changes this week and I think Ole Miss will expose this defense like the middle-of-the-pack group they are.
Malik Cunningham, Louisville ($9,700) vs. Virginia: Cunningham continued his 30-point streak going for a 40-burger last week against Wake Forest. He is the entire Cardinals offense, so any production will come through number 3. The Louisville defense isn’t good, so they usually have to be aggressive scorers for a full 60 minutes. Now, for the we t blanket: Cunningham has *run* in 2 touchdowns in every game this season, which feels completely unsustainable. He has only passed for the 300 yard bonus once and has yet to break 100 rushing yards in any one game. Should he fail to score twice on the ground, a floor game of 25 points would disappoint his backers at his price point. This game will be a shoot-out and once again the Cardinals will need Cunningham to carry them but his value seems fragile to me. I like cheaper options at QB with similar upside.
CJ Stroud, Ohio State ($9,500) vs. Maryland: Coming off a 5 TD game, Stroud enters week 6 with no questions about his place at the top of the depth chart in Columbus. I like this game to be high scoring and so does Vegas, giving OSU they highest point total on the slate. A 300 yard day should be easy for Stroud, and I’d pair him with your choice of Wilson or Olave (I’m partial to Wilson).
Brennan Armstrong, Virginia ($9,200) @ Louisville: This is probably my favorite quarterback play of the slate. Virginia has a weak running game, and much like Lousiville, can’t stop anyone on defense and relies completely on their quarterback to win games by scoring points. Armstrong has three games over 400 passing yards already this season and gets a Louisville pass defense ranked near 100th in yards per pass attempt and explosive pass rate allowed. They’re bad. As the cheapest option in the top tier, Armstrong still comes with 40 point potential and a safe floor. He is difficult to fade this week.
Mid-Tier
Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma ($8,300) vs. Texas: It’s so 2021 for Rattler to not be in the top tier, and frankly I’m not sure he should be in this range either. The Oklahoma offense has just been gross this year, and Rattler has not hit 300 passing yards since week 1 against a terrible Tulane defense. I’m done betting on the breakout with the Sooners. I’d rather pay up or down than take on this salary.
Salary Savers:
Garrett Shrader, Syracuse ($6700) vs. Wake Forest: Schrader is a store-brand Tim Tebow type, essentially a fullback with enough of an arm to get away with some passing skills in college. Syracuse wants to run the ball with both Shrader and Sean Tucker but Shrader has been used heavily near the goal line, scoring 7 rushing TDs in his last 3 games. He’s unlikely to eclipse 200 passing yards, but with his rushing contribution and a score or two on the ground, he can get to 20 draft kings points and be a nice value.
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland ($6000) @ Ohio State: I like this play at 6K. Tagovailoa ha shown us that he can consistently produce 20 point days and while he fell dreadfully short of that against Iowa, a rebound is likely this week. The Ohio State defense is not playing at a high level, ranked 50th or below in expected points added (EPA) per pass and pass yards per attempt allowed. Additionally, they have not played a standout passing offense to date. I am comfortable taking this steep discount on Tagovailoa and even stacking with a wide receiver which I will discuss below.
Running Back
High-End
Bijan Robinson, Texas ($9,200) vs. Oklahoma: Bijan Robinson has finally broken 9K and he may not be done. Outside of the dud against Arkansas the stud sophomore has scored 30 points every single week, and is coming off a sensational 35-216-2 performance against TCU. That being said, the strength of Oklahoma lies in their run defense, as they are a top 10 unit in both explosive rush rate and EPA per rush. They have already held Leddie Brown and Deuce Vaughn to under 60 yards this season. The question on the table is whether Robinson is truly matchup proof, and I think he is. However, I am not sure I want to pay the premium to find out this week. He’ll be fine, but you may be paying for the safe floor that comes with 25 touches and not a ceiling game.
Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State ($8,100) @ Rutgers: Walker comes with a safe touch floor, although most will be in the form of carries rather than receptions. I like him against a Rutgers defense that ranks in the bottom third of the country in almost every relevant statistic. He is the engine of the Spartan offense and has only been held out of the endzone in one game this season. The main downside as mentioned above is the fact he likely will not get any boost from receiving work.
Tyler Allgeier, BYU ($7,800) vs. Boise State: One of my favorite plays on this slate is Allgeier, who has a consistent touch floor of about 20 and will get 2-3 receptions as well. Like Walker, he has only been shut out once this season giving him a safe floor. Given his matchup, an argument could be made for the top RB on the slate. The Boise State Broncos are having a difficult time stopping anyone on the ground. Most strinkingly they are 118th in explosive rush rate allowed at 26%. That means 1 in every 4 runs goes for over 10 yards against this defense. That is BAD. At $7,800 I think I will be rostering a lot of Allgeier this weekend.
Mid-Tier
Sean Tucker, Syracuse ($7,200) vs. Wake Forest: If Wake has a strength it is their run defense. The unit rankes in the top 20 in EPA per rush allowed. While the unit isn’t very good at much, they have been somewhat more successful limiting production on the ground. It will be an interesting game of strength vs. strength as Syracuse wants to run the ball all day. I like their quarterback Shrader at his cost more than Tucker. There are more appealing options down the list.
Tiyon Evans, Tennessee ($6,900) vs. S. Carolina: Evans must be mentioned after his hat trick against Missouri last week. With Jabari Small ailing, Evans went crazy on the Tigers and scored 36 draft kings points. The South Carolina run defense is pretty bad, ranking bottom third in the country in rush yards and yards per attempt allowed. Additionally, their pass defense is stingy and Tennessee should look to their backfield to move the ball. I can get on board with backing Evans for a second straight week. Make sure Small is out again before pushing the chips in though.
Salary Savers
Henry Parrish Jr, Ole Miss ($4,800) vs. Arkansas: The Ole Miss backfield is quite a mess with Parrish and Jerrion Ealy splitting most of the work and vulture Snoop Conner plunging into the end zone. However, $4800 for a back flirting with 10 carries and 3 receptions on this elite offense is worth a look. The big news is that apparently Ealy is a game-time decision this week and if he can’t go Parrish should see an uptick in touches. He’s a play for me even if Ealy is active but he should be a chalk smash play if not. Perhaps you catch some people sleeping and get Parrish rostered lower than he should be.
Jalen Mitchell, Louisville ($4,600) vs. Virginia: Mitchell is an uninspiring choice as he has only scored one touchdown on the season. As stated above his QB Cunningham has dominated the scoring opportunities thus far. Mitchell is sitll the lead back and can be expected to see 15-18 carries and 2 receptions which is a nice work load for that price. The play here is predicated on the fact he’ll get a score or two eventually., Louisville is running in plenty of touchdowns and Cunningham’s pace is ridiculous. Mitchell is probably a good tournament play until his 2+ score game comes.
Receivers
High-End
Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss ($7,700) vs. Arkansas: Stop me if you’ve heard this before – an Ole Miss player is in the top tier. In week 1, it appeared that Drummond had assumed a lite version of the Elijah Moore role from last season. but since his 9 catch outburst, his receptions have gone the wrong way with only 9 over the last 2 games. I can’t get too excited paying top dollar for his services this week. Ole Miss should be fine but I’d rather pay down for some other receivers with a similar projection.
Chris Olave ($7,600) and Garett Wilson, Ohio State ($6,800) vs. Maryland: I’m listing these together because both are great options this week. I’ll keep it simple though, give me the guy with a higher target share for $800 less. Rinse and repeat with the Buckeye receivers.
Khalil Shakir, Boise State ($7,100) @ BYU: One of the surest bets in college football is that Shakir will dominate the Boise State targets. I like him on almost any slate because he’s rarely the most expensive but probably should be.
Mid-Tier
Jordan Whittington, Texas ($5,800) vs. Oklahoma: Texas should have to throw to move the ball on Oklahoma. Whittington has finally stayed healthy long enough to show his talent. Scoring 17 and 20 points over the last 2 weeks, he should keep that going in this matchup.
Braylon Sanders, Ole Miss ($5,500) vs. Arkansas: Look, Ole Miss laid an egg against Bama but should get back to their typical performance this week. I am happy to take their newly minted WR2 at this price. I think he’ll be fairly unpopular after last week as well, so it’s a good strategic play.
Salary Savers
Xavier Worthy, Texas ($5,000) vs. TCU: Plagued with drops against TCU, Worthy still had plenty of opportunity. His final line of 1-7-0 will deter many players from selecting him this week. I am willing to give him another chance and he’s probably not going to be heavily rostered. Texas wont be able to run the ball 54 times again, sign me up for some of this passing game in week 6.
Marvin Mims, Oklahoma ($4,400) vs. Texas: It’s been ugly for Oklahoma, there’s not doubt about that. But even through the difficulty, Mims has been their big play receiver and if I am going to bet on anyone on this team having a break out performance it would be Mims. I believe in his talent and the $4,400 number just feels too low. It’s not without risk but in a tournament I like this leverage play.
Jadon Jackson, Ole Miss ($3,600) vs. Arkansas: the injury to Jonathan Mingo has opened up some additional targets in Oxford. Jackson looked like the next man up, snagging 4 balls for only 30 yards in his first action this year. Alabama is a tough first assignment, so I’d be willing to kick the tires here as a deep salary saver this week.
Ra’Shaun Henry, Virginia ($3,300) @ Louisville: This is an insane salary for a guy who is going to give you a 4-50 floor in one of the bggest shootouts of the day. Henry is averaging 6 targets a game on the season, but is coming off a bland 1-9-0 day last week. Tight end Jelani Woods is out this week and so sign me up for Henry who already has 13 unrealized fantasy points per game. In this matchup against Louisville there should be plenty of scoring and I can see a few additional targets thrown Henry’s way. There is some prime savings here.
