Mississippi -2.5 @ Tennessee (Total: 83)
This is simply a bet on principle. I cannot in good conscience play anything here except the under. Bookmakers are hoping to entice some over bettors into putting money on the total but here at Campus2Canton, we’re smarter than that. We saw Ole Miss come way under their total in the 80s against Alabama earlier this year and while I don’t know if this comes “way” under, 83 is an impossible sell to me.
Recommendation:
MISS/TENN u83 -110 (BetMGM)
Rutgers (-2.5) @ Northwestern (Total: 45)
If you know me or have been following me, you know that I am an under-bettor. I rarely play overs, but my card is usually loaded with unders each week. Whether it’s because I hate myself or because Vegas constantly undervalues unders, I don’t know but we’re going back to the well in this matchup. Outside of Northwestern’s game against Ohio, they have failed to eclipse 24 points despite playing Indiana State and Duke this season. Rutgers on the other hand has been under 17 points in every game but one, against… Delaware. Neither of these teams can score and Rutgers ranks 35th in defensive success rate and although Northwestern’s defense is poor, the Scarlett Knights are just as bad at moving the ball, ranking 114th in offensive EPA.
Recommendation:
RU/NW u45 -110 (DraftKings)
Louisiana Tech (-6.5) @ UTEP (Total: 55)
Would this be a real betting preview without going back to the Miners? We’ve been riding with UTEP all year and we’re inclined to do it again this week. This is a good UTEP team right now at 5-1 and this is a fairly poor Louisiana Tech team. Not only do I think this is a case of “wrong team favored”, I think the line is also fairly egregious. UTEP ranks 44th in EPA per play on offense but ranks poorly in offensive success rate. This is largely a factor of an efficient/explosive passing game marred by an inefficient run game. However, the Miners do rank 39th in offensive net points per drive.
The real key here is the UTEP defense, ranked 19th in defensive success rate. Louisiana Tech has played some close games, covering against NC State, Mississippi State, and SMU. They’re certainly not a pushover but they currently rank 89th in offensive success rate and 113th in defensive success rate. Not only do I think #OurUTEPMiners cover, but we’re also going to sprinkle some on the MoneyLine here. Picks up!
Recommendation
UTEP +6.5 -110 (DraftKings)
UTEP ML +220 (DraftKings)
PrizePicks
Tyler Nevens u66.5 Rushing Yards
This line is too high given how good San Diego State has been against the run. The Aztecs currently rank 1st in defensive success rate, 5th in yards per carry, and 3rd in defensive EPA per rush attempt. Nevens has no shot here, don’t overthink it.
Tyler Van Dyke o212.5 Passing Yards
The UNC defense is terrible against the pass, ranked 78th in defensive success rate. Van Dyke earns the start here in a game that has shootout potential as Miami’s defense ranks 92nd in defensive success rate and will need to be playing catchup this week.
Sam Howell o284.5 Passing Yards
Staying in the same game, largely due to a 66-total, we go to Sam Howell’s passing yardage over. Howell’s number is lower than what it should be coming off a poor performance last week where he threw for only 203 yards. However, in his previous four, he had gone over the 300 in each game and, as I mentioned above, Miami’s defense is bad. The Hurricanes currently rank 95th in defensive success rate against the pass and Howell should have no issue carving them up this weekend.
