Rookie drafts are upon us, the NFL draft is behind us, and beside you is my rankings. Let’s dive in together while I briefly go over my Pre-draft evaluation, Post-draft evaluation, and my expectations for their production in dynasty.
- Analytics that matter
- Pre-draft rank with analysis
- Post-draft ranking with landing spot analysis
- short/long term future expectation
- My rookie rankings from last year
WR1 – Treylon Burks
Pre-draft: WR1
(2021 WR1: Ja’Marr Chase)
- Age: 22
- HT/WT: 6’2”/225lbs
- wDOM: 41.76%
- AYPTP: 2.57
- RYPTPA: 3.52
- Early Declare
Pre-draft:
Size/speed prospects are rare and I really don’t care about the argument that he’s raw. Burks played in the SEC and averaged 9.3 yards after the catch in the most competitive conference with a sub-par QB. His route running is not polished but his athleticism is elite and makes up for the deficiencies. He was moved around the formation in the slot, wide, and the backfield. Arkansas schemed for their best player to get the ball in his hands. This is a AJB, DK, Josh Gordon type of prospect and I don’t want to miss out on the upside.
Post-Draft:
Burks lands on the Titans who traded AJ Brown during the draft to move up and draft the same level of prospect coming out of college. They are essentially hitting the reset and traded for the exact same prospect with hopes of a better medical track record. I personally did not care for the NFL trade, but for fantasy, Burks steps in as the WR1 to a QB proven that he can support multiple fantasy options on a roster. I do not project Malik Willis unseating Ryan Tannehill but if he did this evaluation would be much more negative. Burks may have a slow start, as any rookie should, behind Robert Woods but he will take over this core by year 2. The Titans have had a bottom 12 receiving core the last two years, hopefully the new additions stay healthy combined with the King getting older they will see more volume in Tennessee.
Dynasty Expectation:
Year 1: 120+ Targets, 65-1050-9
Year 2: 130+ Targets, 70-1150-11
WR2 – Garrett Wilson
Pre-draft: WR2
(2021 WR2: Elijah Moore)
- Age: 21.6
- HT/WT: 6’0”/183lbs
- wDOM: 22.32%
- AYPTP: 2.57
- RYPTPA: 2.14
- Early Declare
Pre-Draft:
Best route-runner in the class, and probably the safest rookie pick in this year’s class. He’s able to win at all levels of the field with separation and even wins in the jump ball game with his vertical ability. Against his profile he has just minor dings, such as jumping unnecessarily for balls and his needs to add muscle to his frame. Wilson has very nice body control and probably feels the most comfortable adjusting in air. Overall, the most polished pro-ready prospect to make an immediate impact.
Post-Draft:
Wilson lands with the Jets and join Corey Davis and Elijah Moore. The Jets were the 17th ranked passing offense in yards last season, QB Zach Wilson showed process as the season progressed. Corey Davis is boundary, jump ball receiver at this point in his career. Elijah Moore and Wilson’s skill sets become comparable at this point, but give me Wilson over Moore. Zach Wilson is not ready to support multiple fantasy options, but who develop with his new weapon. After year 1 Wilson should separate himself and become the 1, or the 1a in the offense.
Dynasty Expectations:
Year 1: 90+ Targets, 55-700-6
Year 2: 120+ Targets, 75-1100-8
WR3 – Jameson Williams
Pre-draft: WR3
(2021 WR3: Rashod Bateman)
- Age: 20.9
- HT/WT: 6’2”/179lbs
- wDOM: 31.04%
- AYPTP: 2.83
- RYPTPA: 2.75
- Early Declare
Pre-Draft:
Transferred junior year from Ohio State and joined the Alabama football team late summer. Missed almost the entirety of offseason training with Alabama but it took him only five weeks into the season to win the WR1 job. Insane speed coming off an ACL tear. A better route runner than people give him credit for. Williams is a house call threat every time he’s in the open field with decent hands. He does not win the physical game often. Players seem to be bouncing back from ACL tears faster and with more ease, so one ACL tear is not enough to knock him down from dynasty/rookie rankings. Struggled on deep throws on the left side, which is odd.
Post-draft:
Williams gets swallowed up by the Lions who desperately need a WR1. Fourth rounder Amon-Ra was fun but his production was clearly opportunity driven. Jameson should fall into a rookie year similar to Jaylen Waddle. The Lions with scheme ways to get Jameson the ball and use his speed in space for large chunk plays. Lions QB Jared Goff may not be a talented thrower but he can execute a scheme.
Dynasty Expectations:
Year 1: (If ready by week 1) 130+Targets, 80-1050-8
Year 2: If Detroit picks up a rookie in 2023 these numbers will go down. Rookies historically can not support fantasy relevant WRs.
Year 3: Profit.
WR4 – Drake London
Pre-Draft: WR4
(2021 WR4: Terrace Marshall)
- Age: 20.6
- HT/WT: 6’4”/219lbs
- wDOM: 30.89%
- AYPTP: 2.41
- RYPTPA: 2.17
- Early Declare
Pre-Draft:
Big bodied physically dominant wide receiver with some athletic tools. London has sneaky build-up speed but will not win with getting separation by quick footwork or short area burst. Win at the top of his routes through his physical style of play. This type of playstyle does not typically translate to fantasy success, NFL corners are not as easy to bully as Pac-12 DBs, but he certainly has the measurables to continue his win record at the next level. Exclusively lines up on the left side.
Post-draft:
London gets drafted by the Atlanta Falcons as the first wide receiver off the board. Flacon’s QB Mariota hasn’t started a game in two years, but the Falcons were ranked 16th in passing yards under Matt Ryan who lost Julio and Calvin Ridley for over half the season. Calvin Ridley can rejoin the team following the 2022 season. I’m not a believer in the Mariota bounce back, Falcons have a lot of needs to address and Drake is not player who can get open quick. If Flacons draft a rookie next year this pushes Drake’s brake out until year 3 or 4.
Dynasty Expectation:
Year 1: 100+ Targets, 55-750-7
Year 2: (same if he’s with rookie QB)
Year 3: 115+ Targets, 65-900-8
WR5 – Skyy Moore
Pre-draft: WR7
(2021 WR5: Jaylen Waddle)
- Age: 21.5
- HT/WT: 5’9.5”/195lbs
- wDOM: 40.05%
- AYPTP: 2.71
- RYPTPA: 3.51
- Early Declare
Pre-draft:
Excellent route runner that beat DBs with quick footwork at the line. Skyy is a receiver from the G5 conferences meaning that he played against much lighter defensive competition. Recruited in college to be a DB but converted to WR and saw heavy involvement since his freshman year. Skyy wins in his routes often but there are concerns that he might be a one trick pony, utilizing the same move at the line. I also have a preference of size in prospects and for prospects I deem undersized (sub 5’10 or sub 180lb) I feel better about prospects that are top tier athletes comparable to Elijah Moore or Jameson Williams. Skyy does not check that box. Love the skillset, love the production, worried about the measurables for the next level. His production will have a safe floor but the ceiling will be capped.
Post Draft:
Moore flies high over to Kansas City with QB Patrick Mahomes. The departure of Tyreek Hill opens the door for Moore to immediately become the best wide receiver on the roster right in front of Tik Tok star Juju Smith-Schuster and disappointing Mecole Hardman. Moore should be targeted early and often, but will lead the pass catching core, that spot is still filled by Travis Kelce. Long term, he profiles more as a WR2 on the roster but WR2 on the fourth highest ranked offense in passing yards is tantalizing. Moore becomes an immediate impact played with a capped ceiling, but a very high floor. The Chiefs should continue to add even more weapons next off season with Travis Kelce and to give Mahomes more than two reliable options.
Dynasty Expections:
Year 1: 120+ Targets, 80-950-5
Year 2: 130+ Targets, 85-1020-6
WR6 – George Pickens
Pre-Draft: WR5
(2021 WR6: Amon-Ra St. Brown)
- Age: 21.0
- HT/WT: 6’3”/195lbs
- wDOM: 22.76% (2020)
- AYPTP: 1.5*
- RYPTPA: 1.68*
- Early Declare
Pre-draft:
Alpha size, ability, and mentality. Pickens has the athletics to become a consistent separator but is currently raw in this category. He has flashed the ability to win in every scenario from jump balls, to separating quickly over the middle, or adjusting for a horribly throwing ball. An ACL tear in the spring held him out for almost the entire 2021 season. He came back to play partially in final four games and participate in the combine with no sign of the ACL slowing him down. He does play too physically at times to the point of having fist fights on the field. Pickens does have some off the field maturity issues that may raise some red flags from NFL and fantasy managers. He spent most of his collegiate career injured.
Post-Draft:
Pickens gets his name called during the draft by the player he’s going to replace, Chase Claypool. It won’t be a year 1 replacement but the switch is coming. Mike Tomlin has never been shy in taking players with ‘off-field issues’ and he has my confidence that he can keep Pickens focused. He will sit back and build chemistry with fellow rookie QB Kenny Pickett. The Steelers are the 15th ranked passing offense in terms of yards with Big Ben’s noodle arm, but were fourth in attempts. Pickens should slide into the X-receiver role once Claypool leaves. George falls into a situation with a ton of opportunity, and upside.
Dynasty Expectations:
Year 1: 80+ Targets, 45-650-4
Year 2: 120+ Targets, 70-1000-9
WR7 – David Bell
Pre-draft: WR6
(2021 WR7: Devonta Smith)
- Age: 21.2
- HT/WT: 6’1”/212lbs
- wDOM: 25.7%
- AYPTP: 2.7
- RYPTPA: 2.23
- Early Declare
Pre-Draft:
Great route runner with a very polished skillset. Bell has been a high level producer since his freshman year, filling with success for Rondale Moore, who was a second round wide receiver. All around great fundamentals, but not a great athlete, which limits his upside. He has great size and excels in the short area of route running, and in contested catch scenarios. We knew watching him play the last three years that he was not going to test well at the combine and he didn’t, so expectations were met. Bell is a polished prospect who should find an early role and be a consistent first down machine for an offense that features short quick passes to the slot. He fits best with being a WR2 on an offense. Primarily lined up out wide on the right.
Post-Draft:
David’s bell in rung for the Cleveland Browns. Deshuan Watson was QB5 last time he played and he will be suspended for a portion of the season. The Browns have a depleted WR core with only Amari Cooper that holds fantasy value. Bell should provide consistent high floor value and be a chain mover. He’s tied to a top tier QB for years to come, starts off with an easy opportunity to earn an early role to solidify to spot. Bell is best suited as WR2, but WR2s in high volume offenses are very appealing. The Browns aren’t know for their passing offense and ranked bottom six last year but its hard to image they aren’t moving in that direction with recent acquisitions.
Dynasty Expectation:
Year 1: 95+ Targets, 65-700-5
year 2: 110+ Targets, 80-900-6
WR8 – Chris Olave
Pre-Draft: WR9
(2021 WR8: Rondale Moore)
- Age: 21.7
- HT/WT: 6’0”/187lbs
- wDOM: 20.77%
- AYPTP: 2.04
- RYPTPA: 1.89
- Late Declare
Pre-draft:
Not a fan of his usage in the 2021 season, and he really should have declared last year. Olave is a late declare that was utilized as a field stretcher and a WR3 in his own offense. He is a route runner that is consistent at getting separation but demonstrates a lack of YAC ability. Olave would rather run out of bounds than lowering his pads to fight for a handful for extra yardage. He can be easily thrown off his route through physical play. Olave has top level ball tracking and hands in this class and will be a safe, reliable pick in the NFL draft. If he is utilized in the NFL as a field stretcher the way Ohio State utilized him this year, then he will be a boom or bust option in fantasy. Olave’s skill set is hard to judge because of the amount of talent on Ohio’s roster and his landing spot will dictate his rankings heavily.
Post Draft:
Olave olaved his way to the Saints, a team without a clear cut WR1,2 or 3. It’s a desolate waste land of a WR core. Will Michael Thomas play? no clue. Olave has no competition for targets, he joins a core that has been given numerous opportunities, but alas they finally take a WR. Bad news, the Saints were dead last in receiving yards and the same QB is returning. Jameis Winston’s days of throwing for 5,000 yards are behind him and last years pace was much closer to 3,000 yards. The addition of Olave will help with efficiency and if Thomas returns I believe that solidifies Olave to the boom or bust outside in a field stretcher role while MT works the middle.
Dynasty Expectations:
Year1: 75+ Targets, 50-650-5
Year 2: 100+ targets, 68-800-7
WR9 – Jahan Dotson
Pre-Draft Ranking: WR10
(2021 WR9: Kadarius Toney)
- Age: 22.0
- HT/WT: 5’11”/178lbs
- wDOM: 36.69%
- AYPTP: 2.58
- RYPTPA: 2.43
- Late Declare
Pre-draft:
Dotson is a late declare route running specialist. He is excellent at manipulating defenders in the backfield to create space for himself. Dotson has great hands and a lot of practice making amazing catches from inaccurately thrown balls from one of the worst QBs in the power 5. He has a very thin frame and though he does play tough, he does not win the physical game too often. Dotson can be easily thrown off his routes and should look to add weight while maintaining his athletic ability.
Post-Draft:
Dotson follows orders and goes to the Commanders, led by Carson Wentz. Carson was the QB for the Colts and threw for 3,500 yards behind one of the best offensive lines. Terry McLaurin is the solidified WR1 on the roster, and Curtis Samuel cant stay healthy. Jahan will be in the WR2/3 role while he battles to push Curtis Samuel for more targets. Jahan has an up hill battle with internal competition and what is likely to be poor QB play. This pick gets very interesting depending on Terry McLaurin’s future with the team, my expectation is that they resign him, and makes Dotson a very unappealing rookie pick.
Dynasty Expectations:
Year 1: 75+ Targets, 40-500-4
Year 2: 90+ Targets, 60-700-5
WR10 – Christian Watson
Pre-Draft WR11
(2021 WR10: Nico Collins)
- Age: 22.8
- HT/WT: 6’4”/208lbs
- wDOM: 36.2%
- AYPTP: N/A
- RYPTPA: 3.14
- Late Declare
Pre-Draft:
Christian Watson’s production profile and FCS game tape are unimpressive. He is a fifth year senior who did not score his first TD until his third year in a conference easier than the group of 5. Watson’s Senior Bowk stuff looks like an entirely different prospect. I can’t ignore the prior five years of college play but Watson is the lottery ticket in this draft. He has alpha size and top tier athletics. On his FCS tape his timing was bad for when to jump and when to reach his hands out to catch the ball. He went down to first contact often and rounded out his routes but athletics made up for it. Watson is either going to be a stud or a complete dud. The history of fifth year seniors being fantasy studs is a very short list.
Post-Draft:
The Green Bay packers got rid of MVS to replace him with the prospect that mostly profiles similarly to MVS. Watson is a unrefined product coming from the FCS, he joins a depleted WR core and a QB with MVP potential. It appears this roster is entirely built on deep threats, but Watson is going to get a Green Bay bump. There’s not much competition on the roster so its more of a “Why not” type of scenario. His pre-draft evaluation was hard for me because of his difference in FCS and Senior bowl play. He’s a lottery ticket to be a Kenny G type of player or to be a mirror copy of MVS.
Dynasty Expectations:
Year 1: 75+ Targets, 45-750-5
Year 2: 120+ Targets, 60-900-7
WR11 – Wan’Dale Robinson
Pre-draft: WR12
(2021 WR11: Amari Rodgers)
- Age: 21.2
- HT/WT: 5’8”/178lbs
- wDOM: 42.22%
- AYPTP: 3.22
- RYPTPA: 3.64
- Early Declare
Pre-draft:
Wan’Dale is small. As I stated earlier with Skyy Moore, for players that I consider undersized I like to see them have top tier athletics which I definitely don’t consider Wan’dale having. He has a very impressive production profile. Recruited to Nebraska has a hybrid RB/WR, and slowly saw the transformation into a full time WR. He transferred into University of Kentucky and immediately stepped in as the WR1. UK’s passing game as a whole struggled against SEC defense but Robinson was the lone bright spot. Wan’dale is a great manipulator of defenses. His profile has numerous analytical hits, but I am worried about the combination of size and athletics to keep up with NFL DBs.
Post-Draft:
Robinson gets drafted by the Giants. Good news, they’re roster cant stay healthy so he could easily be the leading receiver on the roster, bad news is Daniel Jones. Wan’Dale is an undersized receiver with sub-par athletics for his height. He will struggle as a separator and doesn’t have the physical ability to win the contested catch. The upside here rely’s on his teammates not being able to stay healthy. If they can’t stay healthy than Wan’dale could become a short area ppr machine. Once Jones is gone, the assumption is the Giants will draft a rookie and rookie QBs don’t have a strong history of supporting fantasy relevant wide receivers.
Dynasty Expectations:
Year 1: 100+Targets, 60-700-2
Year 2: 100+ Targets, 60-650-2 (rookie)
Year 3: 120+ Targets, 80-900-5
WR12 – John Metchie
Pre-Draft WR14
(2021 WR12: D’Wayne Eskridge)
- Age: 21.6
- HT/WT: 5’11”/187lbs
- wDOM: 21.34%
- AYPTP: 2.05
- RYPTPA: 2
- Early Declare
Pre-Draft:
John Metchie has never been the WR1 on his own roster. The Alabama wide receiver tore an ACL at the end of the 2021 season. He’s a prospect that does a lot well but doesn’t excel at anything. Metchie is just a guy that is guaranteed a role at the NFL level but theres a few landings spot where I consider him a fantasy asset. He profiles more as a WR2/3 than a featured role in an offense.
Post-draft:
Metchie goes to the Houston Texans. Davis Mills is a underappreciated value. If you ignored the games he didn’t start, and extrapolated to a full season he finishes as a high end QB2. Brandin Cooks is the unquestioned WR1 on the roster, and Nico Collins will retain the X-receiver role. Metchie will become a career WR4-6 with the occasional flex appeal depending on matchup.
Dynasty Expectation:
Year 1: 75+ Targets, 55-700-3
Year 2: 85+ Targets, 65-800-4
WR13 – Khalil Shakir
Pre-draft: WR8
(2021 WR13: Tylan Wallace)
- Age: 22.1
- HT/WT: 6’0”/196lbs
- wDOM: 35.58%
- AYPTP: 2.72
- RYPTPA: 2.72
- Late Declare
Pre-Draft:
Khalil Shakir is an early ‘my guy’ and it is truly hard to separate him from Dotson and Olave for me. These three prospects will be ranked by their landing spots. Shakir is another twitchy separator but he has the size. He played against G5 competition, and according to SRS had the 26th hardest schedule. Shakir was benched early in a few games due to blowouts but still put up numbers. He features some of the best ball tracking ability but also had quite a few concentration drops where he would be quick to turn his head to focus on his after the catch route before bringing the ball in and fully securing it. Shakir excels in the YAC game, can string together multiple moves to make a man miss, and will always fight for the extra yardage. He demonstrated the ability to win consistently against tougher DBs at the senior bowl and played up to the level of competition.
Post-draft:
Shakir could not shake his hips like Shakira and fell to the fifth round. He becomes my instant late round target in rookie draft. Cole Beasley leaves and they sign Jamison Crowder who can never stay healthy. With the help of injuries, Shakir could take over this the slot role for the ninth ranked passing offense in the NFL. My advice for every Rookie drafted during day 3 is to find the option that possess the best shot at early opportunity and immediately trade them for value. Khalil Shakir is my pick this draft class to see year 1 impact and look to flip for 2023 2nd.
Dynasty Expectation:
Year 1: 70+ Targets, 50-500-3
Year 2: 85+ Targets, 60-650-4
WR14 – Alec Pierce
Pre-Draft: WR20
(2021 WR14: Jalen Darden)
- Age: 22.0
- HT/WT: 6’3 / 208lbs
- wDOM: 25.79%
- AYPTP: 2.05
- RYPTPA: 2.21
- Late Declare
Pre-draft:
Alec Pierce is a one dimensional prospect. He’s big, fast with stiff hips , and a lack of route running ability. Thanks to the terrible throws by Desmond Ridder he has had plenty of experience in the contest catch department. He ran primarily go-routes in college, and is hard to bring down on first contact. He plays like a very fast tight end.
Post-Draft:
Pierce lands with the Indianapolis Colts who are in desperate need or WR help. This pick leads me to the assumption that the Colts will keep Michael Pittman inside and continue to use him in a similar fashion as Thomas with the Saints. Pierce will be used on the outside as an oversized field stretcher. This pick was rich for my taste, Pierce will be a better NFL player than a fantasy asset.
Dynasty Expectation:
Year 1: 70+ Targets, 40-600-4
Year 2: 85+ Targets, 45-650-5
WR15 – Jalen Tolbert
Pre-Draft WR13
(2021 WR15: Dyami Brown)
- Age: 23.0
- HT/WT: 6’1”/194lbs
- wDOM: 45.66%
- AYPTP: 3.48
- RYPTPA: 3.62
- Late Declare
Pre-draft:
Jalen Tolbert was very productive in the Sun-Belt, and demonstrated the ability to succeed against higher level competition at the Senior Bowl. He needs to play more physically for his size, and he runs rounded routes. He has great measurables and production profile, however, has a way to go to be able to play against NFL DB competition.
Post-Draft:
Tolbert landed on a prolific offense just to be buried behind depth. Ceedee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are solidified as the WR1 and 2. Tolbert will have to battle James Washington for the WR3 spot while TE Dalton Schultz is earning more targets than both of these targets. This creates a low opportunity for Tolbert combined with his late declare status leaves me not wanting more. This was a luxury pick for the Cowboys, and I don’t see a future where he becomes fantasy relevant.
Dynasty Expectation:
Year 1: 60+ Targets, 40-500-1
Year 2: 70+ Targets, 45-550-3
