One of the most prestigious individual awards a high school quarterback can obtain is the Elite 11 MVP. The Elite 11 is a national high school QB competition that has become highly regarded and popular, but are we keeping the Elite 11 accountable? To answer this question, I looked further into Elite 11 MVPs’ and Finalists’ careers from a C2C perspective.

I separated the MVPs from the Finalists, players who competed in the competition but were not awarded the Elite-11 MVP. When looking into MVPs and Finalists, we want to see how they produce compared to each other. So, I took the MVPs and Finalists from 2010-2023 and stacked up each of their best seasons.

Elite 11 MVP & Finalists Highest Producing Years (2010-2023)

At first glance, the Finalists’ top performance years are much higher than the MVPs. That’s expected because of the large volume of finalists compared to the MVPs. I decided to compare their production averages from (2010-2023) to drill deeper into this comparison.

College Fantasy Production

Here, it’s easier to see that the Elite 11 MVPs have a decisive advantage over the Elite 11 Finalists regarding college fantasy production. MVPs (2010-Present), on average, score 233.98 fantasy points in each of their best seasons, while Finalists (2010-Present) score 146.74 fantasy points. Their Points Per Game differential is about 5 PPG, so we can see that MVPs outperform Finalists in college fantasy production. Although many of us play C2C, how can we know the value an MVP brings compared to the finalists?

Draft Comparison

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Looking into the draft percentages of each, MVPs (1999-Present) are much more likely (+15.34%) to be drafted. I separated the data from 2010 to the present, and this led to an even larger increase in the MVPs’ draft odds, and they have a +25.18% advantage over the finalists. The average draft position provides more information on an MVP’s value than a finalist. MVPs (1999-Present) have an average draft position of 64th overall, while Finalists are drafted at 110th. Splitting the data again from 2010 to the present, MVPs are being drafted earlier at the 45th pick while Finalists are at the 100th, almost two rounds earlier.

Strategies and Moves

So, what are some moves or strategies you can apply to your own C2C league? Targeting Elite 11 MVPs like Jackson Arnold and Julian Sayin are good bets to place based on historical data. Also, please pay attention to this year’s Elite 11 MVP and how he is valued in the class. Jackson Arnold was evaluated behind several QBs in the 2023 class and now has jumped as the front-runner.

Sayin is also in an interesting situation, transferring from Alabama to Ohio State this offseason. Considering Alabama’s open QB room and Air Noland’s commitment to the Buckeyes, it was an odd move. Sayin will compete with Noland for the keys to the kingdom, a stacked Buckeyes WR room. Targeting these two is a move I’d consider heavily this offseason. Another sneaky move you can possibly make is acquiring Spencer Rattler; taking a shot on a highly recruited Elite 11 MVP and getting some pre-draft hype is a value buy to me.

Conclusion

I had been skeptical of the importance and track record of the Elite 11, which led me to look deeper into the camp. I was surprised by the results I found and how successful the MVPs have been. In the past couple of years, they had a great run of players, including Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, C.J. Stroud, and Caleb Williams. Although they have their misses, I believe that betting on Elite 11 MVPs is a strong bet to make.

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