Welcome to another ADP Analysis article from everyone here at Campus 2 Canton. In this series, a team member will break down any ADP trends from all mocks conducted that month to help you get a jump on your league mates!
Since we started this process, we have built some serious ADP with 19 total drafts in the books. We’ve also made our way through the end of recruiting and spring football, which has contributed to some major shifts in value.
FRESHMAN WRs RISING
Agiye Hall, WR – Alabama (33 in May, 46 overall)
Once the 2024 WR4 in our ADP, Hall has leaped to the front of the group on the back of his performance in the Alabama Spring Game. Without fellow newcomers Jacorey Brooks, JoJo Earle, and Christian Leary participating, Hall staked his claim for early playing time. He made several acrobatic catches and finishing the day with four catches for 72 yards.
Hall may not start in 2021, it’s notoriously difficult for freshmen to break through under Nick Saban. He looks poised to grab a big role at some point in the next few years. Coupled with his lofty recruiting pedigree (WR5 in the composite), the likelihood of strong quarterback play, and the rate at which Bama has produced high-end WR prospects recently, Hall has virtually everything drafters want at the position. He’s going to continue to rise, so those that got him in the fifth just two months ago look to have gotten a steal.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR – Ohio State (69 in May, 109 overall)
I almost started this section off with Harrison, a name flying up draft boards and our collective rankings here at Campus2Canton. There’s always a bit of added juice to a name that we’ve heard before. Unless you’re living under a rock, you’ve heard of Marvin Harrison. The Hall of Fame wide receiver operated as Peyton Manning’s favorite target for the majority of his career. Those are lofty expectations to live up to, but the junior Harrison looks to be well on his way to a potential NFL career.
Harrison was the first to lose his “black stripe” at Buckeyes spring practice, a yearly ritual in which freshmen are initiated. He followed that up with a touchdown grab in the spring game. Coaches and players at Ohio State have raved about his potential since he stepped foot on campus. On top of that, the receiver room at Ohio State is suddenly much more open. We assume Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson will be gone next offseason. On top of that, Mookie Cooper and Jameson Williams transferred out this offseason, and Gee Scott Jr. has switched positions. We can’t expect much from him in 2021 but expect a splash in 2022.
Troy Franklin, WR – Oregon (97 in May, 112 overall)
Another highly rated guy in the 2021 class, Franklin entered Oregon as one of the best skill position recruits in the program’s history. It did not take long for him to settle in, grabbing four receptions for 93 yards in the spring game. Franklin is not an instant starter for the Ducks, but it looks more and more like he’s the future there at Oregon. If he can gain a few more pounds (he’s listed at 170 currently), he can develop into an early-round draft pick.
KONAMI CODE CRUSHES?
Malik Willis, QB – Liberty (70 in May, 102 overall)
We could probably write an entire article on Malik Willis move up draft boards (something may actually be in the works on that front), but he only occupies a small section of this article. With the 2021 NFL draft behind us, draftniks are already predicting the first round of 2022. Spencer Rattler and Sam Howell headline that class, but it’s a wasteland behind those two.
Willis has become an attractive option as the QB3 in 2022 because he is a dynamic athlete with a strong arm and high-end rushing upside. The big problem with Willis is that he is not refined as a passer. His accuracy is a mess, partially because of mechanical issues and partially because he doesn’t seem accurate. That’s an innate skill that is difficult to improve long term. He’s a classic “tools over substance” type player. Regardless, a potential first-round QB is valuable, and Willis may end up with that level of draft capital.
Emory Jones, QB – Florida (210 in May, 211 overall)
This is a bit of a weird one at first glance but bear with me. Jones is another athletic QB with a high upside. This month’s ADP was significantly better than prior months, but his overall shakes out oddly because he went in a higher volume of drafts this month. In March and April, Jones went in one draft per month. In May, he went in all five.
Jones is the projected starter at Florida for this year, although there is more uncertainty about that than people want to admit. A big year with the Gators could vault him into the first-round discussion. Like with Willis, drafters are gambling on first-round draft capital. Time will tell whether than gamble is justified.
Caleb Williams, QB – Oklahoma (31 in May, 37 overall)
Williams did not see the big jump that others did this month, but he did move a high amount relative to his previous ADP. Williams was the top QB in the 2021 freshman class, so the scouting community recognized his talent. Some shaky showings during the Elite 11 and questions regarding his accuracy caused some concern.
Now? Williams played well in the Oklahoma spring game, finishing 10/11 for 99 yards and a touchdown passing. He added another 61 yards on the ground. Since he started at OU, Lincoln Riley has been the QB whisperer, first with Baker Mayfield, then Kyler Murray, and then with Jalen Hurts. Current Sooners starter Spencer Rattler should be a first-rounder as well. It’s not ridiculous to suggest Williams will meet the same fate, and his shift in ADP reflects that.
Jake Garcia, QB – Miami (160 in May, 186 overall)
Last December, the Hurricanes suffered a loss in their bowl game against Oklahoma State when starting quarterback D’Eriq King went down with a serious knee injury. That may have been a blessing in disguise. Instead of declaring for the draft, King returned for another season. This gives Miami time to find a replacement, something they sorely lacked last year.
Enter Jake Garcia, the seventh-rated QB in the 2021 class. Garcia was once a USC commit, but he eventually opted for Miami. With no King in the picture this spring, Garcia split snaps with Tyler Van Dyke, a second year player and a top rated QB in his own right. But by all reports, Garcia outplayed Van Dyke and looked great in the spring game. At this point, it’s reasonable to suggest that Garcia has that job wrapped up for 2022 if he can hold off top 2022 recruit Jacurri Brown.
Corey Kiner, RB – LSU (168 in May, 171 overall)
Kiner got the coach-speak bump over the past few months. LSU Head Coach Ed Orgeron has not been able to stop talking about the true freshman RB.
Kiner did not participate in spring practice, but he likely did not lose any ground on his competitors. Second-year RB Kevontre Bradford recently entered the transfer portal, as did Chris Curry earlier this offseason. That leaves four names vying for playing time: Tyrion Davis-Price, John Emery Jr., and true freshmen Kiner and Armani Goodwin. If Kiner can beat out Goodwin for touches this year, it’s a good sign for his future C2C value, and drafters are taking notice.
Jaxson Dart, QB – USC (109 in May, 132 overall)
All eyes were on the battle for backup QB at USC this spring, as the Trojans welcomed two top prospects in Jaxson Dart (QB 9 in the composite) and Miller Moss (QB11). Moss missed his senior season due to COVID, while Dart shot up rankings on the back of a strong season. Dart carried that performance into the spring and looked to have the backup job all but secured.
Returning starter Kedon Slovis did not look great this spring, but he’s not in any danger of losing his spot. That being said, there’s plenty of room behind him, and he may be out the door next offseason if things go to plan. The starting QB at USC is always a valuable asset, and now that we think Dart is that guy, his ADP reflects that reality.
OTHER INTERESTING TIDBITS
Jameson Williams, WR – Alabama (198 in May, 250 overall)
Williams wins the award for biggest riser this month, at least amongst players who previously had an ADP. When Williams announced he was entering the transfer portal, most assumed he would see a drop in program prestige. Instead, Alabama scooped him up almost immediately. Williams brings much-needed speed to the Bama receiving room and could see significant time this season. I suspect we see a continued rise for him this offseason.
There were several players that dropped precipitously this month, and I don’t have a reason for any of them. The group includes Nevada WR Elijah Cooks (173 -> 389), Georgia RB James Cook (163 -> 343), USC transferee WR Tahj Washington (155 -> 274), and Michigan State WR Jayden Reed (173 -> 299).
If I had to guess, I’d suggest the fall of many upperclassmen with questionable NFL prospects could be due to “freshman fever.” Many freshman drafts are taking place, and drafters are looking for upside more than stability. The nature of C2C drafts also makes it difficult to squeeze more than a handful in during the month. If we did 100 drafts, maybe the ADP for these players would level out.