Welcome to the Stock Watch. While the picture above might make you worried you’ve stumbled into a financial advice column, have no fear, this is about our fantasy football stock. Each year in dynasty leagues we look forward to rookie drafts, snatching up all the prospects we know will lead to glory. But it doesn’t always happen right away. Over the next few pieces, as this off-season draws to a close, I’ll be taking stock of prospects at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end for the 2018, 2019 and 2020 draft class. This isn’t about the stars that we already know are great, it’s about the players taken in the first three rounds that haven’t hit yet—and might never hit.
The Stock Watch rolls on from 2018 to 2019 and moves back to the quarterback position. Four players were drafted in the first two rounds of the 2019 NFL Draft, and all four have been given chances to start by the teams that drafted them. Heading into the third year in the NFL, however, only one—Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick—has established himself as a quality starter and fantasy option. For three of them, 2021 will be a big year to determine what, if any, future value they hold.
Daniel Jones
Drafted: No. 6 overall by the New York Giants
Situation: Jones surprised many when he was the sixth overall selection. At the time, the Giants had Eli Manning still on the roster, and Manning started to begin the 2019 season. But it wasn’t long before Jones got his shot—displacing Manning early in the season and starting 12 games. He was only 3-9 in those starts as the Giants struggled as a team, but he threw for 3,027 yards and 24 TDs, adding 279 yards rushing and 2 more TDs. All that made fans excited about the potential future.
After his rookie season, Manning retired and the Giants changed coaches. That included bringing in a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett. Hope was high for Jones in year two, but unfortunately, he couldn’t match it. Starting 14 games, he threw for just 2,943 yards and 11 TDs. He finished as QB24. It was a season that left more questions than answers about Jones long-term.
Heading into 2021, the Giants have done what they can to build up the team around Jones. The line figures to be better with Andrew Thomas going into year two and Nate Solder back. The team expects a healthy Saquon Barkley, who missed nearly all of the 2020 season. And the Giants added weapons in the passing game, signing Kenny Golladay and John Ross, then drafting Kadarius Toney to team with Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepherd. In short, it should be the best offensive team Jones has had, removing excuses and giving him a chance to succeed. In addition, with no real options on the roster behind him, Jones won’t feel someone looking over his shoulder or breathing down his neck.
Stock Value: Holding. It’s too early to give up on Jones right now… but in three months, it might be time. If you’ve got him on the roster, you’re hoping for more of a return to year one form, especially with better offensive weapons. If Jones puts up solid QB2 numbers and the Giants are competitive, he’ll be in good shape. But if he puts up another 2020-like season, the Giants will likely use their high draft position in 2022 to consider a Jones replacement.
Dwayne Haskins
Drafted: No. 15 overall by the Washington Football Team
Situation: Haskins was a controversial player when he was drafted, fresh off an amazing 2018 season at Ohio State. Washington took a chance on him, hoping to find its franchise quarterback. He didn’t hit it off with Jay Gruden, who was fired in the midst of Haskins’ rookie season. Haskins didn’t ball out on the field, either, throwing for just 1,365 yards and 7 TDs in seven starts. Heading into his second season, now with Ron Rivera at coach, there were questions about Haskins’s maturity. He started at the outset of the season, but went 1-5 in six starts, throwing for 1,439 yards, five TDs, and seven INTs before being released.
That could have been the end of the story, but Haskins was given another chance, signed to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have an aging Ben Roethlisberger set to start, but Haskins has a chance to develop and, possibly, be the future. He’s among a depth chart that includes another Stock Watch subject, Mason Rudolph. The question is if he can get his act together off the field, which is in doubt after his recent legal issues. Mike Tomlin doesn’t suffer fools, so Haskins will have a lot to do if he’s to earn a place with the Steelers.
Stock Value: Null. Haskins was a First-Round draft pick, but he flamed out in spectacular fashion. Much like Josh Rosen, Haskins is just hoping to play well enough in camp and pre-season to hold a spot as a backup then, possibly, get an opportunity on the field again. He’s a deep league stash at best.
Drew Lock
Drafted: No. 42 overall by the Denver Broncos
Situation: The Broncos have been searching for an answer at quarterback since Peyton Manning retired following the team’s Super Bowl 50 victory. Former GM John Elway’s last stab was drafting Lock, once a first-round prospect who slipped to Denver in the second round. As a rookie, he joined a team that had just traded for veteran Joe Flacco. Lock was injured in the pre-season as a rookie and spent the first part of the year on Injured Reserve. Flacco flamed out, and by December Lock was back and given his chance to start. He went 4-1 in those starts, including a blowout win over Deshaun Watson and the Texans. It was enough to give fans hope as he entered 2020 as the undisputed Broncos’ starter.
But 2020 didn’t go as expected. Lock was injured and missed three games, struggling mightily with new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur during the 13 games he did start. Lock went 4-9, throwing for 2,933 yards and 16 TDs. He also threw 15 INTs, finishing the year as QB23. Like Jones, he heads into year three with plenty of questions. While the Broncos eschewed drafting a franchise quarterback like Justin Fields in April, the team made an offer for former Lions starter Matthew Stafford and have been linked to persistent rumors regarding Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers. In addition, just prior to the draft the Broncos traded for Teddy Bridgewater, giving them veteran insurance and another option should Lock continue to struggle.
Stock Value: Tenuous. Full disclosure, I’m a huge Broncos’ fan, so it’s hard to be impartial. I didn’t love the Lock pick when it was made, but I also am not ready to quit on him after just 18 starts. He likely beats out Bridgewater, but I’m not sold he’s a great long-term option. I want to see him cut down the turnovers and win some games, then I’d feel better about his long-term value. It’s quite possible in six months his value is zero.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
