Early Career Production

Tayvion Robinson, the 5’10”187lb wide receiver from Virginia Tech, is the single best value in all C2C and devy formats. Currently ranked outside our top 165 WRs, Robinson has been one of the top receivers in the 2022 class through two seasons. Classified as an ATH for recruiting purposes, Robinson switched from quarterback to wide receiver his true freshman year and has managed to stay under the radar thus far.

Through two seasons only nine wide receivers have crossed the thresholds for Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (YPTPA). 

The list above shows the players who qualified, along with the respective weighted dominators in the 2022 class. Robinson, became a full-time wide receiver only last year but managed to elevate his game in his second season. His 2.32 YPTPA and 26% weighted dominator are impressive for the entire class. Not bad for an “athlete”.

Crossing the threshold based on the regression line, Robinson was one of six to do so in his sophomore season. Along with David Bell, Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, and Wan’Dale Robinson, Tayvion Robinson joins elite company. Compared to the above players in ADP, Flowers is the lowest at consensus WR22 while Robinson remains unranked. Using weighted dominator is specifically important in this context. It shows production within the offense using both yards and touchdowns. It allows us to evaluate players standing out in their situation, proving they can contribute at a high level. Robinson, who was not a prolific producer compared to his peers, was prolific in Hendon Hooker’s subpar passing offense.

YPTPA is an important metric because it distills down efficiency while also accounting for volume. When evaluating a prospect with both metrics (weighted dominator above), it points to not only intent but efficiency with intent (YPTPA).

Although his collegiate production leaves much to be desired, his 592 receiving yards was first on a team that combined for just over 2,200 total passing yards. Being first in receptions, he was also very efficient, evidenced by his YPTPA and 15.6 yards per reception.

Robinson’s Role and What to Expect

Considering year one was marked as a learning year for Robinson, his second year saw him excel at the position. Robinson was limited in his freshman year alignment, but his sophomore season was highlighted by lining up all over the formation. Robinson can play both inside and outside, and his production last year shows the strides he’s making.  

Beyond playing receiver, Robinson was one of the country’s better returners as a true freshman. Securing a spot on PFF’s All-Freshmen team, Robinson graded (83.0) as the highest freshman punt returner in the nation along with an average return of 14.5 yards. Although he struggled in his sophomore year on returns, the dominance as a true freshman shows his return ability regardless.

A full season with Braxton Burmeister at quarterback should improve the overall passing offense, giving Robinson more C2C value. Burmeister flashed some in limited action last season, going 3-1 with a 78% completion percentage and over 10 yards per attempt to end the season against Clemson and Virginia. With Burmeister, Robinson had three of his better games, capping the season off with a 5-98-1 line against the Cavaliers.

Part of what is holding Robinson back is his high-school athletic testing. A 4.87 40-time combined with a 28.4 vertical jump is not good enough for the pro game. The hope for Robinson is that with the right training and strength coaches, he can improve on both marks and get them into acceptable ranges. Although he may never be a special athlete, his production speaks for itself, and he can be good enough.

Conclusion

A productive receiver flying under the radar, this season will be a big test for Tayvion Robinson. Paired with a quarterback with whom he performed the best, Robinson could take the next step and become a household name this time next year. An early producer, his efficiency and market share on a bad passing offense put him in impressive company. Robinson’s outlook has nowhere to go but up. Moving forward, Robinson is my favorite value in devy and C2C drafts and a must-get on all my teams. 

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