How are the projections created?

The projections are created via an automated model based on position-specific previous player performances, betting lines and totals, and depth chart information from CFB Winning Edge.

Can I filter by Player, Team, or Position?

Absolutely! In the box above the projections, you can type in which Player, Team, Position, or Opponent you’d like to filter for.

Demonstration of how to filter by team and position

The default number of players on the page is ten. However, this can be increased by the “Show” box at the bottom of the projections.

The projections for Week 1 seem a bit wonky, especially for teams who have had a Quarterback change, such as Ohio State and Georgia – why is this?

As the model is heavily influenced by previous player performance. If the player doesn’t have previous performance e.g. freshman, or wasn’t a starter in previous games, then the model will have no reason to think they’re good and should be projected highly, until they demonstrate a reason they should be projected more highly. 

Once we get a few weeks into the season, these anomalies will even out and look more smooth. If there’s a depth chart shakeup mid-season then this process will occur again.  

My favorite player isn’t listed – where are they?

As some of the inputs for the model come from betting lines and totals, without those inputs, the model is unable to create projections. This is primarily an issue when an FBS team plays an FCS team. The sportsbooks often don’t post these lines until closer to the game, sometimes as late as Saturday morning. The projections automatically update multiple times a day, including at ~11.45 am Saturday morning, to capture these late betting updates. 

Are injuries accounted for in the projections?

Yes and no. The model does have injury status that does automatically update, and if a player is classified as “OUT,” then they will be automatically filtered out of the projections. If the player is ruled out well ahead of their game, then often there is sufficient time to update team depth charts based on information from CFB Winning Edge which will adjust player projections. However, when it comes to Quarterback (and somewhat for Running Back, too), part of the projections is previous player performance. When it comes to the backup quarterbacks, generally, their previous performance is minimal to zero. Therefore, their projection will often still be quite low and unlikely to be in line with what their pass catcher’s projections indicate. In this situation, I’d suggest approaching the whole team’s projections with an increased level of uncertainty.

Why does *insert team* Quarterback projections seem much lower than their pass catcher’s projections? Or the opposite.

This projection model is built at a player level as opposed to a team level. This means that when there is a change in the quarterback position, then there can be incongruence between the QB projections and those of their pass catchers, and vice versa. This change can be either via injury, via coach decision, or especially between seasons as players transfer or those ahead of them on the depth chart graduate. Once we get a few weeks into the season, these anomalies will even out and look smoother.

Different quarterbacks also accumulate different proportions of their fantasy points through passing or through rushing. Running backs have a split between rushing and receiving, and to a lesser extent, wide receivers and, to a much lesser extent, tight ends.

Last of all, thanks to everyone for checking out the projections, and I hope they’re helpful! You can reach out to me in the Discord, and I’m happy to answer any other questions.

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