Welcome to another ADP Analysis article from everyone here at Campus 2 Canton. In this series, a member of our team will break down any ADP trends from all mocks conducted that month to help you get a jump on your league mates!
We are in to the dog days of summer at this point, and the ADP has settled in. There are fewer big movers this month than any other. That doesn’t mean there weren’t any changes though, so we are here to explore those.
SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS AT THE TOP
Arik Gilbert, TE – Georgia (41 in June, 35 overall): As you can see, I refuse to call Gilbert a wide receiver, regardless of his designation on Fantrax or what he wants to appear as on the Georgia website. But now that he does not have TE eligibility, he’s basically worthless on a campus roster for the next two years. Plus, we have no idea if this positional change will be a good thing for him, especially after he posted such strong numbers at LSU. His 14 spot drop last month is justified and feels like his value now accounts for the headaches he presents.
Kevin Harris, RB – South Carolina (46 in June, 38 overall): Another guy falling this month is Harris. Not sure if this was a market correction or not, but Harris was going several spots above teammate Marshawn Lloyd for months. That is no longer the case. The talented FR Lloyd finally surpassed the established Harris. Drafters are banking on Lloyd’s pedigree and athletic ability to push his draft capital. If Harris can’t maintain last year’s production with his new backfield mate, and he doesn’t get Day 2 draft capital, I can understand the fall. This could look really foolish in a few months though.
Jeremy Ruckert, TE – Ohio State (167 in June, 146 overall): What a weird month for tight ends. Virtually every top guy outside of Michael Mayer dropped significantly in our ADP. Maybe drafters are realizing that TE is a volatile position. Maybe other positions are just seeing a bump at their expense. Regardless, Ruckert saw a 41 spot drop. He won’t produce much in college this year, so he’s purely drafted for his NFL upside. Add in a new QB, and a drop seems reasonable no matter the reasoning.
Darnell Washington, TE – Georgia (147 in June, 139 overall): If I had to guess, Washington’s ADP is directly tied to the transfer of Gilbert. I don’t care what Georgia lists him as, any production that Gilbert will see comes at the direct expense of Washington. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Georgia offense, with Kearis Jackson, Jermaine Burton, Arian Smith, and Marcus Rosemy all expected to catch passes. Couple that with the loaded backfield, and this offense will be a mess to figure out. Washington is firmly in “Do Not Draft” at current ADP for me.
Gee Scott Jr., TE – Ohio State (192 in June, 162 overall): Like Ruckert, Scott is experiencing tons of change in the Buckeye offense this year. To add to that, Scott is attempting to transition from WR to TE. This was the first full month of drafts following his announcement, so it makes sense that he would see a 44 spot drop. The jury is still out on Scott’s future.
THE CURE FOR FRESHMAN FEVER
LJ Johnson, RB – Texas A&M (52 in June, 46 overall): If May saw freshman fever in full force (say that five times fast), June saw a correction in the market. Drafters finally realized that some of these freshmen have to sit at least a year and wait their turn. Johnson is stuck behind Isaiah Spiller and is likely to see touches go to Devon Achane over the next few years. Johnson still has a ton of upside, but he was approaching maximum value. An ADP of 53 feels more palatable than 41.
Camar Wheaton, RB – Alabama (67 in June, 63 overall): Like Johnson, Wheaton has to contend with a star-studded RB room at Alabama. Brian Robinson Jr. is the presumptive starter this year but will be spelled at times by Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams That’s a tough group to crack, and only one of them is leaving next offseason. Wheaton may get his chances in the future, but the wait should push him down boards.
Kamarro Edmonds, RB – UNC (84 in June, 83 overall): This offseason, part of the appeal of Edmonds was the wide-open backfield at UNC. That’s still the case, but Edmonds did not participate in spring practice to take advantage. Meanwhile, Ty Chandler and Caleb Hood both put on strong spring performances, as did Josh Henderson. The talent should ultimately win out, but we may have to wait a year to see it. The fall seems appropriate based on that.
OTHER INTERESTING TIDBITS
Seth McGowan, RB – N/A (353 in June, 226 overall): Probably an obvious statement, but McGowan is the biggest dropper in June’s ADP. Rumors swirled for several weeks that the former OU running back was involved in the robbery of a drug dealer this offseason, but local law enforcement finally issued a warrant for his arrest and he was swiftly dropped by Lincoln Riley. I’d be shocked if McGowan ever plays college football again, and drafters agreed. He’s not even worth a late-round flier at this point.
Kennedy Brooks, RB – Oklahoma (175 in June, 208 overall): With the departure of McGowan, Brooks has begun to gain some steam in C2C circles. For the record, I am not an advocate of this shift. Brooks is an older back who has never been able to take control of the backfield, and he hasn’t played in over a year. Eric Gray should out-touch him this year, and Brooks is a Day 3 back.
Newcomers: We added 19 players to the ADP database this month. Notables include:
- Oklahoma State tFR WR Jaden Bray, who impressed with a two touchdown performance at the OSU spring game. Don’t be surprised to see Bray get some snaps this year
- SMU WR Danny Gray, the presumptive WR2 for the high-powered Mustang offense
- LSU TE Kole Taylor, who should step into a starting role now that Arik Gilbert is officially enrolled elsewhere
- North Texas WR Jyaire Shorter, one of my favorite CFF producers for the 2021 season